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Forward Guidance

Latest episodes

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Sep 12, 2023 • 1h 17min

Eric Basmajian: Why The U.S. Economy Hasn’t Entered Recession Yet (And Why He Is Confident It Will Soon)

Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, discusses the U.S. business cycle and leading indicators suggesting an upcoming recession. Topics covered include housing and auto growth, consumer credit trends, unemployment rates, and the mechanics of higher interest rates. The podcast also explores the bull market in stocks, the possibility of the U.S. economy already being in a recession, and predictions on Fed interest rate hikes and the likelihood of a recession by 2025.
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Sep 12, 2023 • 51min

Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The U.S. Economy? | Jeremy Schwartz & Professor Jeremy Seigel (Jack’s Guest Appearance On Behind The Markets Podcast)

Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Professor Jeremy Seigel, renowned finance professor at Wharton, talk about the labor market, stock market, interest rate sensitivity of the U.S. economy, and the banking system. They explore the relationship between interest rates and the unemployment rate, the impact of rising interest rates on banks and the market, and the worrisome trend of banks modifying and extending loans.
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Sep 8, 2023 • 1h 28min

Milton Berg: The Stock Market Is In Trouble

Milton Berg, technical analysis legend and stock market expert, revisits the program to urge caution in the stock market. He discusses eight reasons why the bull market will end soon and highlights the weakness of banks. Berg also analyzes market gaps, put-call ratios, and the impact of Federal Reserve actions on the money supply. Additionally, he explores the influence of solar and lunar cycles on the stock market and discusses the value of his Twitter presence and upcoming book.
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Sep 6, 2023 • 1h 3min

Wave of U.S. Treasury Issuance Puts Pressure On Bond Market | Prometheus Macro

Aahan Menon, Founder of Prometheus Research, discusses his macro outlook, the wave of U.S. Treasury issuance, and potential headwinds for assets. Topics include measuring liquidity, the impact of Treasury issuance on the bond market, and the state of credit. They also talk about shorting assets and the democratization of finance by Prometheus Macro.
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Sep 5, 2023 • 1h 27min

"Credit Shock" In Commercial Real Estate | John Toohig, Victor Calanog, and Thomas LaSalvia

John Toohig, Thomas LaSalvia, and Victor Calanog discuss the challenges and opportunities in commercial real estate (CRE) due to the recent interest rate shock. They analyze the decline in CRE prices, the uncertainty in the office sector, low payoff rate in CMBS universe, importance of loan-to-value ratios and cash flow, and hedging interest rate risk. They also discuss the state of the multi-family market and rising insurance costs, along with uncertainties and struggles in investing and banking.
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Aug 31, 2023 • 1h 27min

David Rosenberg: A Recession Is Coming In The Next 6 Months

David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates, discusses the recession within the next six months, prior Fed tightening cycles, the incoming credit crunch, the impact of higher interest rates, deficit spending, and the three stages of every bear market.
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Aug 29, 2023 • 1h 7min

Vincent Deluard: The “Magic Money” That Prevented Recession Is About To Disappear

Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro at StoneX, discusses the hidden forms of government stimulus and why they will be less of a factor in 2024, leading to a slowing US economy. He reaffirms his long-term inflationary view and explains why he is bearish on US stocks and prefers international stocks. Other topics include the shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy dominance, the impact of higher interest rates and quantitative tightening, and the complexity of inflation.
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Aug 28, 2023 • 1h 10min

Business Cycle Slowdown Will Intensify Into Recession | Mike Singleton

Mike Singleton, an expert in business cycles and economic downturns, discusses various topics including the forthcoming recession, the best time to buy bonds, and the potential causes of an imminent economic downturn. The conversation also explores the correlation between credit spreads and the bond market, the composite PMI and its relationship with manufacturing and services, and the potential impacts of different economic policies on growth.
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Aug 25, 2023 • 1h 3min

ESG: The 40 Trillion Dollar Bubble | Mark Neuman

Mark Neuman, Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital, discusses the origins of ESG, measuring ESG investing, underowned stocks within indices, Silicon Valley Bank, incentives and outcomes, ExxonMobil, Tesla, market stress, correlations, portfolio emergencies, the trend of ESG investing, Hero- a vertically integrated farming venture, and exploring the potential and pushback of the ESG movement.
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Aug 24, 2023 • 17min

The Next Chapter in Emerging Markets Investing | Marshall Stocker, Co-Head of Emerging Markets, Morgan Stanley

Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, discusses the importance of country selection in generating excess returns, highlights investment opportunities in Greece, examines the risks in South Africa and India, debates the possibility of a US debt downgrade, and shares insights on China's equity market and potential economic stimulus.

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