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Forward Guidance
Deficit Spending Will Send S&P 500 To 6,000 And Beyond | George Robertson & Mel Mattison on the True Risk-Free Rate and The Fed's Control of The Treasury Market
Aug 12, 2024
George Robertson, an expert on deficit spending, and Mel Mattison, a commentator on risk-free rates, delve into the implications of fiscal policies on the stock market. They argue that deficit spending could drive the S&P 500 to unprecedented heights. The discussion highlights the Federal Reserve's manipulation of the Treasury market, interest rates, and the dynamics seen in today’s economy. They explore how government spending relates to historical financial policies, challenging traditional economic models and forecasting future market behaviors.
02:35:47
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Quick takeaways
- Deficit spending is predicted to drive the S&P 500 to 6,000, showcasing optimism for risky assets' performance.
- The true risk-free rate and the Fed's control over Treasury markets significantly influence current stock market valuations.
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Bullish Perspectives on the Market
Both guests have maintained a bullish outlook on the stock market over the past year, predicting substantial rises in indices like the S&P 500. George attributes this optimism to a fundamental shift in monetary policy since 2014, arguing that understanding current fiscal conditions is crucial for predicting market movements. He believes that radical changes in the U.S. government’s monetary policy mean that traditional analyses may fail to recognize the continued rise of risky assets. This optimistic sentiment is reinforced by solid fiscal policies, which still inject significant liquidity into the economy.
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Discover
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode