Disorder

Former Armenian President Sarkissian discusses the forgotten Armenian genocide and recent ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh. They also talk about missed peace opportunities in the 1990s, the importance of remembering the genocide for global order, challenges of small states, and Armenia's struggle for Western support.

In the early morning hours of 19 April, American officials told major news outlets that an Israeli missile had struck central Iran near its nuclear sites. No one was harmed. Officially, the Israelis are not claiming to have attacked; and Iran is not claiming to have been attacked. It is distinctly possible that this pinprick strike combined with denials on all sides will satisfy both parties and avert further retaliation. Conversely, it is also distinctly possible that it will lead to further cycles of revenge and escalation. To Order this Disorder, Jason is joined by our returning champion Arthur Snell and our great Scottish hopeful, Jane Kinninmont -- Policy & Impact Director at the European Leadership Network (an institution specializing in preventing nuclear war). The trio discuss: 1) why did Israel choose to retaliate, even though Biden counselled them to ‘Bank the Win’; 2) if this event even counts as retribution for the Iranian strikes of 14 April or could be classified as a non-strike as it is below the threshold of certain previous Israeli actions inside Iran; and 3) how Iran’s and Israel’s Sunni Arab neighbors are responding. Mulling over this unique historical moment, the trio use the Ordering the Disorder segment to propose opportunities for sage diplomacy to prevail and de-escalate tensions. Of course, the mere existence of these win-win, mutually beneficial, off-ramps from further conflict, does not mean that the Iranians or Israelis will seizes these opportunities. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: James HodgsonExec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links For a quick overview of April 19th’s events: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/israel-carries-out-strikes-isfahan-iran-reports?mc_cid=a8bfe16bdf&mc_eid=b844138f36  For Iranian narratives of the confrontation with Israel: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/out-of-the-shadow-war-iranian-narratives-of-the-confrontation-with-israel/ For Arthur Snell’s Substack, ‘Not All Doom’: https://arthursnell.substack.com/ And for his podcast ‘Behind the Lines’: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656 Join ELN’s roundup of the Persian language news: https://europeanleadershipnetwork.us5.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=f9c4fc8e446f80bb4d50ed06f&id=ca7882ea45 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Taiwan is not only the epicentre of the world’s semi-conductor industry and a vibrant democracy. It is arguably the most important square on the chessboard of East Asian geopolitics. And the Taiwanese have watched very carefully how China has absorbed Hong Kong.  The ‘one country, two systems’ mantra was a total failure.  China is not planning a peaceful union with Taiwan. China is building its military at a rate not seen since World War II. The Chinese explain their military buildup by claiming a desire to reunify with (i.e. invade) Taiwan by 2027. Is this just posturing by China or is a great power battle over the island – i.e. between the US and China – actually approaching?  To examine the state of play in China/Taiwan relations, Alex Hall Hall is joined by former Danish diplomat, Jonas Parello-Plesner. In his recent book – “The Battle for Taiwan” – Jonas explores what China is doing to shape the regional balance of power. In the discussion, Alex and Jonas discuss: the surrounding countries’ (Japan/South Korea/Philippines) role in deterring China, how seriously we should take Xi’s stated ambition of ‘assimilating’ Taiwan into China, and how should Taiwan and its friends in the West protect and prepare for such a likelihood.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links Get Jonas Parello-Plesner’s book “The Battle for Taiwan” at https://www.amazon.co.uk/Battle-Taiwan-Jonas-Parello-Plesner/dp/B0CZRYS4RZ/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=   For More on Taiwan’s recent election: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia/taiwan-presidential-election-results-intl-hnk/index.html   Read Alex’s most recent Bylines Times article https://bylinetimes.com/2024/04/09/the-dilemma-facing-civil-servants-over-the-uks-arms-sales-to-israel/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the early morning hours of April 14th Iranian drones and missiles were launched towards Israel. The launch was framed as retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1st.    Nearly 99% of the projectiles were intercepted. Although little physical or human damage was sustained, regional relations have been fundamentally recast: Sunni Arab states like Jordan and possibly Saudi Arabia allowed the US, UK, and Israel to use their territory and intel assets to counter the threat. Israeli PM Netanyahu initially vowed a retaliatory strike, but Biden, Sunak and others are trying to dissuade him.  To discuss the late breaking developments and relitigate their previous predictions, Jason is joined from Dubai by Disorder’s own Roving Correspondent, David Patrikarakos. The duo set the context of the strikes within the long durée context of decades of proxy conflict between Israel and the Islamic Republic. They investigate how these events might spiral out of control to cause an apocalyptic War of Gog and Magog or how they could reconfigure regional alliances and allow for renewed Qatari/American/Egyptian mediation to find an off-ramp from the current conflict.  They also investigate the current famine in Gaza and the lack of Israeli policy for long term governance solutions for the territory.   Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links  For an overview of the Iranian strikes and Israeli response: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/13/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news  The Role of Biden: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-called-off-retaliatory-strike-on-iran-after-call-with-biden-new-york-times/   Read David’s sage prediction in Unherd, ‘Iran is winning the Gaza war Tehran's violent strategy could soon escalate’: https://unherd.com/2024/04/iran-is-winning-the-gaza-war/  And Jason’s plea to blame Bibi and not the Jews:  https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/blame-netanyahu-for-gaza-not-the-jews/   Our Oct 12th episode: The 2023 Israeli-Hamas war: A Symptom of our era of Disorder?: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e48504038444024ddfb4d273932b9eec   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A decisively new kind of maritime terrorism has now emerged. Last weekend, two more British-linked ships were attacked in the Red Sea by Houthi pirates. This comes after the sinking of the Rubymar on March 2nd, which released 21,000 metric tons of ammonium, constituting a major ecological disaster.   Jason is joined by Laura Cretney: a Yemen expert and founder of Pink Jinn, an online marketplace focused on supporting small businesses and communities affected by conflict in the MENA region. The pair provide a primer on how we got to here: Who are the Houthis and how did this ‘rag tag militia’ from the mountains end up with so much leverage over the global economy?   They also unpick the implications of the Houthis: Are the attacks on global shipping actually changing the course of the conflict in Gaza? And what does the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the competing social media narratives emerging around it, tell us about the regional and global order (or lack thereof)?  Lastly, the pair try to Order the Disorder by debating the role Diaspora communities in the US and UK can play in providing expertise and human networks to help improve Western policymaking towards the ongoing conflicts in Yemen, Gaza, and throughout the MENA region.  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links  Hear our previous episode on Yemen here Background on the Dawning of a new age of eco-terrorism here To find out about the recent attacks on British shipping visit here Read about the impact on Israel here And the impact on the global economy here And why designating the Houthis as terrorist may backfire can be read here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Beneath the Caribbean’s idyllic seafronts and sandy beaches lies a darker truth. Illicit money flows, corruption, and organised crime leave these small states hollowed out and open to state capture. In fact, the failure of Caribbean states to provide services to their populations and to generate income has led some of them to sell their sovereignty to their highest bidder.  In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by Arthur Snell, host of the Behind the Lines podcast and former British High Commissioner to Trinidad and Tobago to discuss the multiplicity of interconnected roles Caribbean nations play within the Global Enduring Disorder. The pair discuss: Haiti’s recent gang uprising, the high homicide rates throughout the Caribbean, the historical role of the Caribbean as the first truly globalized region in human history, why former British colonies like the British Virgin Islands are increasingly turning to money laundering and drug trafficking, and how the legacy of the sugar trade has left societal scars in the region that are still felt to this day.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Subscribe to our Substack here Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links Read the report, ‘Homicide and Organised Crime in Latin America and the Caribbean here Read more about Haiti here Discover more about Andrew Fahie’s drug case here Read ‘The Crime Conundrum in the Caribbean’ here Buy Arthur's, How Britain Broke the World here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this bonus episode, Alex and Jason catch up after a long absence and chew the fat. They discuss the tradeoffs of life in the US vs UK delving into the Convenience vs Inspiration dichotomy. They  try to decide who moved to the more chaotic place and where life is more livable and unpack thorny philosophical problems like have Britain’s public services become enshittified just as American tech platforms have?   Plus, they discuss the Disorder of getting car insurance in the UK, the Conservative’s London Mayoral election campaign, and what a Trump election could mean for America’s foreign policy.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links  For the origins of Enshittification visit here Enshittification as word of the year here   Read more of Alex’s writing at Byline Times   And Jason’s at his website  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

India is arguably the world’s only rising great power. As the world’s largest democracy and soon to be third largest economy it is the globe’s most serious aspirant for becoming the 6th permanent member of the UN Security Council. Despite this economic and foreign policy heft, since independence in 1947, India has stridently resisted being aligned with any one particular geopolitical “camp”.  It has always wanted to retain its “strategic autonomy” and to avoid being treated as a junior partner to any major superpower.  Recently, India has hedged between Ukraine and Russia, btw the BRICS and America, and btw Israel and the Arab World. As a result, India has successfully maintained cordial ties with many of the world’s top powers, but has it done so as an Orderer or as a Disorderer?   To discuss, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Indrani Bagchi – one of India’s most respected foreign policy journalists, a former Associate Editor for the Times of India, and currently Chief Executive Officer of the Ananta Centre. The duo discuss India’s approach to Russia, China, the UK, and the Israel-Gaza conflict. At the interview’s conclusion, while trying to Order the Disorder, an incensed Jason butts in with his strong personal hunch that India has much latent ordering potential but that Modi has deliberately squandered it in pursuit of his divisive and disordering neopopulist policies.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/   Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links  Find out more about India’s wealth income inequality from TIME here Read about Kejriwal’s arrest here For more on India’s election here Learn about how Modi’s Neo-Populist consolidation here More on the arrest of opposition politicians here And about the killing of a Sikh activist in Canada here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Exploring the balance between order and chaos in personal and geopolitical contexts, the podcast delves into the influence of Thatcherite and Reaganite myths on neopopulism. It also discusses the advantages of disorder in personal lives affecting gift choices and explores the importance of consensus politics.

Every year, Freedom House releases an annual ‘global democracy health check’. According to it, the world is getting sicker. In this year’s ‘Freedom in the World’ report -- which reviews the state of democracy, civil, and political rights in every country -- political and civil liberties have got worse in 52 countries, while in only 21 countries have they improved.   What dynamics lie behind this trend? And what does it signify for the future?   To find out, Alex is joined by the President of Freedom House, Mike Abramowitz. Prior to running Freedom House, Mike was a Senior Executive at the Holocaust Museum, and before that, he worked for 24 years at the Washington Post, as national editor, and then White House correspondent. He also has the distinction of being one of only a handful of ‘named’ American citizens singled out for special sanctions by the Chinese Government, imposed on him in 2020 as a response to his support for the Hong Kong Democracy movement. In the episode, Alex and Mike delve into the report in more detail, the threats facing elections around the world, the implications of the stifling of the free press, and what could be done to revive the recent decline in global freedom.  Twitter: @DisorderShow  Subscribe to our Substack here Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/   Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn  Show Notes Links  To read Freedom House’s Freedom In The World Report here For more on Mike Abramowitz visit Freedom House His article in TIME, ‘How Authoritarian Regimes Go After Journalists Beyond Their Borders’ can be read here Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices