Oil Price Fluctuations Our week started with some serious drama.  And our man Archie Smith was all over it, and reveals all to us in this episode.  Listen up to hear what led to him saying the below quote: "This has been quite an eventful week for oil". - Archie Smith You've honestly got to hear it to believe it! Archie Smith and James Robinson join us for more insight from the Fuel Oil and Iron Ore desks! We're joined for the first time by Peter Stallion. Excitingly, our 'Reuters famous' ferrous Freight Upper Hao Pei joins us for another update. And our Business Development manager Kerry Deal gives us our regular update on the Panamaxes.   China's Market Volatility: Navigating the Container Futures The container futures market is booming due to the launch of the Shanghai onshore Chinese exchange product, demonstrating the highly volatile nature of global markets. Oil demand has faltered due to weak Chinese consumption, pushing up market volatility. Additionally, dry bulk rates have plummeted due to increased efficiency at ports and lack of import demand. Here's the link to the FIS live app. Timestamped summary of this episode:   (00:00:00) Container Futures with Peter Stallion (00:05:07) Oil Market Volatility with Archie Smith (00:10:16) Capes & Panamaxes Weakness with Kerry Deal (00:15:12) Iron Ore Growth with James Robinson (00:20:55) Iron Ore Market Hao PeiThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

Stay Ahead of the Game! Ed Hutton shares technical analysis insights with you Does this sound familiar?  You're constantly analysing market trends, trying to make sense of the fluctuating freight industry. But no matter how hard you try, you just can't seem to grasp the bigger picture. You've been told to rely solely on fundamental analysis, but it's left you feeling frustrated and lost. The pain of missing out on profitable opportunities and making costly mistakes is overwhelming. It's time to break free from ineffective strategies and embrace the power of technical analysis. Hi, I'm Fernanda, your host of this great podcast and it's my job to ensure you're getting your fix of Freight Up fun this week. Join us in this episode of the Freight Up! podcast from FIS as we enlist the help of 'Freight Upper' Ed Hutton, and get more of an understanding of how to see market trends and unlock our path to success! As promised, here's the link to the FIS live app. We also get our first chat with Matthew Howarth talking with us about coking coal. Archie Smith and James Robinson join us for more insight from the Fuel Oil and Iron Ore desks!     And.. Decoding the dance! Unraveling the Intricacies of the Coking Coal Market... Literal uncharted waters this week, as we talk about the coking coal market for the first time on this podcast.  Do you ever wonder what goes on in the busiest trading sessions of the Singapore exchange, where deals between 2KT to 10KT are the norm? Are you curious about what influences the ebb and flow of this global market, and how various physical, financial, and trading house players impact it? What role does China, the major onshore player, play in shaping the market trends? And how does weak demand in China or overall global demand affect the coking process and the market's dynamics? Intriguingly, the market's reactions to bearish conditions have been anything but ordinary. What causes buying interest to surge when prices dip, only to rebound again gradually? And why are traders from Singapore and Australia predicting a further drop in PLV coke and coke prices, potentially to as low as 200 per ton? As you consider these questions, you may find yourself intrigued by the chess game of market reactions - the anticipation, the retreats, the calculated re-entries. There's a peculiar rhythm to it, a dance of sorts. It's not just about trading, it's about understanding the pulse of the market, it's about staying one step ahead of the game... Timestamped summary of this episode:   00:01:04 - OPEC Cuts and Weak Demand Outlook 00:04:05 - High Sulfur Fuel Oil Market Volatility 00:08:29 - Fertilizer Market Reset and Grain Price Impact 00:09:50 - Recap of Q2 Fertilizer Market 00:15:35 - The Importance of Fertilizer Options 00:18:29 - Challenges in the Chinese Steel Industry 00:21:30 - Panamax and Capesize Rates 00:22:32 - Steel Market Analysis 00:28:17 - Iron Ore Market Update 00:29:27 - Steel Production Cuts in China 00:30:09 - Concerns About the Chinese Economy 00:31:25 - Bleak Outlook for the Property Market 00:31:52 - Surging Steel Exports 00:33:14 - Market Skepticism and Iron Ore Futures  This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

From Quotas to Cuts: The Turbulent High Sulphur Fuel Oil Market Does the volatility in the high sulfphur fuel oil market feel all too familiar? Have you been told that closely monitoring crude oil importing quotas and export cuts is the key to understanding this volatility? But despite your efforts, you're still left without a clear understanding of the factors driving this market's unpredictability?  The pain of taking ineffective action and not getting the desired results can be frustrating. It's time to break free from this cycle and gain a deeper insight into the real drivers of volatility. Join us in this episode of the Freight Up! podcast from FIS as we uncover the hidden forces behind the high sulphur fuel oil market's turbulence, empowering you with the knowledge to navigate this market with confidence and success.   "So we're expecting, or I think the trade is expecting, that volatility continues to remain a little bit subdued compared to the beginning of the year." - Taylor Eastman  - (click for LinkedIn)  Hi, Fernanda here! I'm host of the Frieght Up podcast!  Archie Smith, Taylor Eastman, James Robinson, Joshua Stern, Kerry Deal and Hao Pei join me to discuss the current market trends and the latest happenings in the world of freight and commodities including Russia, China, ferrous, scrap and all the other stuff we like to dig into! OPEC Cuts and Weak Demand Outlook The world of crude oil is an intricate balance of supply and demand. And currently, the scales are tipping heavily towards the surplus end. As Saudi Arabia lengthens its voluntary oil output cuts into August, we might have anticipated a beneficial boost in prices. However, no such sustained increase is visible. Why is that? In this conversation, our guest Archie Smith shares more with us on this subject. For now, let's just say it's a complex puzzle with multiple moving pieces – each one impacting and influenced by the other! Recap of Q2 Fertilizer Market The fertilizer market is in a period of transition. Moving from the bustling spring season to the more laid-back summer fill season, the market has quietened considerably. Traders are now holding their breath in anticipation of fill programs being announced. These programs encourage buying, and could potentially lead to a price increase. But there are plenty of macro factors to keep an eye on - natural gas prices, grain market volatility, and geopolitical tensions to name a few. Taylor Eastman takes a detailed dive into the low hum of the fertilizer market activity. Splashing some optimism in his commentary, he notes that this spring season proved less volatile than previous ones. Prices seemed to have stabilized after the initial jitters. Looking ahead, Taylor shares his key takeaways for attentive listeners - a good market watcher never sleeps! The Importance of Fertilizer Options Risk management is a crucial part of everyday business operations. For businesses operating in the fertilizer supply-chain, price-risk is a daily conundrum. Enter fertilizer options - a relatively new instrument that allows businesses to navigate through the price turbulence. Listen to the episode to learn more about this interesting new... option! Timestamped summary of this episode:   00:01:04 - OPEC Cuts and Weak Demand Outlook 00:04:05 - High Sulfur Fuel Oil Market Volatility 00:08:29 - Fertilizer Market Reset and Grain Price Impact 00:09:50 - Recap of Q2 Fertilizer Market 00:15:35 - The Importance of Fertilizer Options 00:18:29 - Challenges in the Chinese Steel Industry 00:21:30 - Panamax and Capesize Rates 00:22:32 - Steel Market Analysis 00:28:17 - Iron Ore Market Update 00:29:27 - Steel Production Cuts in China 00:30:09 - Concerns About the Chinese Economy 00:31:25 - Bleak Outlook for the Property Market 00:31:52 - Surging Steel Exports 00:33:14 - Market Skepticism and Iron Ore Futures This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

Strong Demand Drives Rally in High Sulphur Fuel Oil Unforeseen winds of change swept through the freight industry as iron ore prices soared, driven by the unwavering commitment of China's Premier Li to bolster domestic demand. Freight industry traders and professionals! Brace yourselves for a rollercoaster ride.  This unexpected twist in the market will challenge conventional strategies, forcing you to question the status quo. Will you adapt and seize the opportunity to redefine your path? Or will you remain rooted in the familiar, unaware of the untapped potential that awaits? Make sure you listen to this new episode of "Freight Up" from FIS to get all the insight you need to make your decision! "For them all to be rallying, it shows some good health in the fuel market" - Archie Smith  Hi, I'm Fernanda, host of the Frieght Up podcast! Archie Smith and James Robinson join me to discuss the current market trends in fuel oil and iron ore. Archie dives into the rally in fuel oil cracks, particularly in high sulphur fuel oil, which he attributes to movements in the East, with our friends in China.  He also highlights the tightening gap between the cracks. James talks us through the significant rally in iron ore prices, also driven by Chinese commitments to demand. Timestamped summary of this episode: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:29 - Fuel Oil Update 00:05:52 - Iron Ore Update  This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

Solving Data Discrepancies: The Fix for Improved European Positioning with Joshua Stern! Welcome to the latest episode of this FIS podcast in which we talk data discrepancies, new algorithms, HRC markets, the Rebar market, China's influence and the economic strategy, Brent's price and much more! Pssst! Here's the post Josh refers to in the episode! My special guests this week are Ricky Forman, Joshua Stern, James Robinson! "Improving transparency in market data is key to making informed trading decisions." - Joshua Stern Buckle up on this week's Freight Up! This episode is bringing more plot twists than an episode of "Rabbithole"! When Joshua Stern discovered a significant data discrepancy between the US and EU HRC markets, he knew he had to take matters into his own hands. Learn how he used a combination of the existing data, and devised a way to estimate European HRC positions.  But get this: this new positioning data revealed something unexpected... signs of a shift towards a more bullish sentiment in the market. With this newfound insight, everyone involved in the industry could make better-informed decisions. But what will happen next? Listen to find out! Improved accuracy in European positioning estimation for better trading decisions In this episode of the Freight Up podcast, we learn that understanding the positioning dynamics in the commodities market, particularly between the US and EU HRC markets, can have significant implications on trading decisions. And talking of bullishness... The rebar market has been displaying signs of bullish sentiment recently, which provides a sense of optimism for future pricing in the steel industry. Positive indicators in the market which we reveal in this episode, point to a potential upswing that could open up profitable opportunities for traders. By keeping a close eye on these market trends, industry players can establish a competitive edge and potentially reap the rewards of bullish market conditions. James Robinson highlights the impressive 20% month-on-month gain he's discovered within the US steel market.  Iron Ore Update In the iron ore market, China's slow rate of stimulus announcements has caused some frustration. While there have been numerous meetings between government officials and industry leaders, the outcomes have been limited and slow in coming. Listen to learn more!  The key moments in this episode are: 00:00:00 - Economic Unease Rocks Commodity Desks 00:01:25 - Fuel Oil Market Update 00:07:17 - Steel Market News 00:10:53 - Contango Curve 00:13:40 - Importance of Fed Funds Release 00:14:11 - Bullishness in the Rebar Market 00:15:21 - Focusing on Derivative Markets 00:16:54 - Iron Ore Update 00:21:50 - Shift in Economic Strategy for China  This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

And how the US strategic petroleum reserve affects fuel oil market Welcome to the latest episode of this FIS podcast which this week is delving more deeply into the carbon market! "We've created a solution to the whole problem and we've created two transactions, so now the market will know that there's been two transactions, so the market has now got some enthusiasm about that." - Theo Goulios Do you want to stay ahead of the game in the commodities industry and make informed business decisions?  Are you looking for ways to boost your understanding of market factors and their potential implications? Look no further. Our esteemed speakers this week - Theo Goulios, Archie Smith, James Robinson, Kerry Deal, and Joshua Stern - are here to share insights with you. Silent auctions In this captivating episode of the Freight Up podcast, our guest, Theo Goulios the Head of Carbon at FIS, introduces a novel approach to market liquidity in the often-stagnant vulture carbon market - silent auctions. He details how this idea, sparked by a problem in the OTC market, has been a game-changer for both buyers and sellers by taking the anxiety-inducing element of price out of the equation. We delve into how this tactic has fostered the creation of successful transactions and reinvigorated market interest. But don't think silent auctions are a one-size-fits-all solution - our expert highlights why it's specific to the current market conditions. Short-term Bounce There is potential for a short-term bounce in EU HRC prices due to available material on a spot basis. Understanding the factors leading to this short-term bounce and closely monitoring the situation can help professionals in the commodities industry make informed business decisions. Learn what might happen if there isn't enough material going into Southeast Asia! Freight Update The shipping and freight industry faced challenges due to the global pandemic and various countries' COVID-19 restrictions. Kerry Deal picks us up on the latest regarding the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on container movements and the seafaring industry. He also talks us through the influence of supply chain disruptions and seasonal congestion on shipping as the year progresses. Iron Ore Update The 2021 iron ore market has been affected by changes in China's environmental policies, causing the shutdown of inefficient and high-polluting steel mills. These changes, combined with the possibility of lower iron ore prices due to seasonal production slowdowns, make it essential for professionals in the commodities industry to stay informed on market trends and their potential global impact. Our own James Robinson discussed the mixed week that the iron ore market experienced due to the concerns surrounding China's property market.  The key moments in this episode are: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:00:46 – FI Se Silent Auction 00:08:36 - Carbon Desk Update 00:08:51 - Fuel Oil Market Update 00:16:13 - Sleepy Steel Market 00:13:28 - Impact of Sing 0.5 Crack on High Five Spread 00:14:03 - EIA Stockpile Report and US Fed Meeting 00:14:47 - Iron Ore Update 00:19:35 - Freight Update 00:25:30 - Steel Update 00:27:34 - Little downstream demand 00:28:13 - Interest in EU HRC contract 00:28:56 - Chinese steel and prices 00:29:26 - Short-term bounce This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

In this episode of Freight Up from FIS: We explore the complex dynamics of oil and fuel markets shaping the global economy. The ramifications of output cuts and their influence on oil markets. How recessionary pressures affect the fuel industry and its future prospects. The importance of Europe's increasing energy independence and its repercussions. Examine the burgeoning activity of high five spreads in the bunker market and their importance. Nick McClements, a skilled base metals connoisseur at FIS, leads the market with a comprehensive grasp of how base metals affect global economic health. Hey loyal listener! And thanks for joining us for another new episode!In this episode of "Freight Up!"....Output Cuts and Market Sentiment Understanding the influence of output cuts by major oil producers such as OPEC and Russia is vital when examining the oil markets. Furthermore, considering the potential recessionary headwinds, it's important to monitor the possible effects on the markets. By observing these key factors, traders and others in the industry can better prepared for the oil market's fluctuations and make more informed decisions. In the episode, Nick McClements, James Robinson, and Archie Smith talk about the impact of these output cuts, which they believe are more supportive than bullish. Additionally, they discuss how poor Chinese economic data and a massive build in gasoline and distillates contribute to the recessionary headlines. They also cover how G7 sanctions on Russian oil and gas tax revenues and the increased independence of Europe's energy sources affect the oil markets. But in the bunker market, the focus shifts to increasing activity of high five spreads and differentials for scrubber-fitted vessels, leaving bunker traders wondering what this means for their business. Will they be able to navigate these market trends and come out on top? Listen in to find out.Timestamped summary of this episode: 00:00:00 - Introduction, The podcast episode will cover the impact of China's stimulus bill, the US debt ceiling discussions, and inflation on the freight and commodities market. 00:01:14 - The Significance of Base Metals, Nick explains how copper is a good economic indicator since it is used in building new homes and manufacturing. 00:08:03 - Iron Ore Update, The iron ore market has been volatile due to concerns over Chinese growth prospects and the state of the property market. 00:13:28 - Fuel Oil Update, Archie Smith obviously can't ignore his beloved West Ham's European final before diving into fuel oil updates! While there has been some recovery in demand, there is still overcapacity in the market. 00:15:21 - Output Cuts and Market Sentiment, We'll get an update on market sentiment amid these cuts. 00:17:03 - Russian Oil Revenue Hit, Russian oil and gas tax revenues took a 36% hit in May, due to a mix of sanctions, price cap, and Europe's increased energy independence. But what impact has this had on Russia's oil industry? 00:17:54 - Bunker Market Update, More on low sulfur cracks and their status forfor Sing and Euro!00:19:01 - Takeaways for Bunker Traders,This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

In this episode: Discover the challenges in green ammonia production and how market turbulence affects the shipping industry. Investigate the role of Brent Crude Futures Complex prices on international economies. Uncover the implications of the OPEC+ meeting and its relation to Iranian oil transportation. Delve into long-term iron ore contracts, seaborne coal valuations, and the impact of China's demand. Determine the effects of e-commerce on shipping, the last-mile delivery market, and workforce deficits. The Future of Ammonia Market We talk with Kieran Walsh about the expected impact of green ammonia. The ammonia market is moving toward green ammonia, a more environmentally friendly alternative to traditional grey ammonia. Green ammonia, which is produced using renewable energy through the process of electrolysis, has the potential to significantly reduce environmental impacts associated with grey ammonia, such as methane emissions. However, green ammonia production currently faces several challenges that need to be overcome, including capital investments, infrastructure, and fixed-price supply contracts to attract investors. The market is volatile and uncertain, but there is potential for green ammonia to have a significant impact on seaborne ammonia trade from the middle of next year. During the Freight Up! podcast, Richard Stevenson highlights ammonia's potential in energy transportation, mentioning its convenience in moving energy from one location to another, and its environmental benefits for net energy importers. He also noted the challenges faced by green ammonia, including the need for a fixed price offtake agreement to encourage investment in infrastructure by shipping companies. FIS has the Argus Northwest Europe Futures contract, which allows oil traders to manage risk and create speculative positions in green ammonia.We also talk with Archie Smith, Kerry Deal and Hao Pei.Timestamped summary of this episode: 00:01:11 - The Future of Ammonia Market, Richard Stevenson, Strategic Advisor to FIS, discusses the two buckets of the ammonia market, grey ammonia, and green ammonia, and the barriers to the adoption of green ammonia. 00:08:37 - The State of the Ammonia Market, Kieran Walsh, the ammonia broker, says that decarbonization efforts have made ammonia a key part of energy transition and decarbonization. 00:14:33 - Fuel Oil Market Update, Archie Smith, the fuel oil broker, says that the Brent Crude Futures Complex is still uncertain, but he hopes that the uncertainty will be lifted after the weekend. 00:15:16 - OPEC uncertainty, Archie Smith discusses the upcoming OPEC meeting and the uncertainty surrounding it with Russia hinting at no changes to quotas or production. 00:18:36 - Capes and Panamaxes, Kerry Deal reports on the struggles in the Capes market due to decreasing congestion at Chinese ports and slowing exports from Brazil. 00:23:10 - Ferrous Complex Outlook, Hao Pei shares insights from a shipping conference, including the expectation of a narrower price range for the Ferrous Complex in the second half of 2023.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

Fuel Oil Update As the fuel oil market exhibits an absence of clear direction, corporate energy traders who rely on fuel oil may find themselves in a difficult situation. With environmental regulations and external factors at play, volatility is becoming a more common occurrence in the industry. This instability brings forth potential risks that can deeply impact businesses and their bottom lines. As a result, devising a strategic approach will be crucial in maneuvering through this tumultuous market. Archie Smith, during the conversation, mentions that the fuel oil market seems to be lacking apparent direction, with things such as OPEC meetings playing a role in market movements. And just what is the Saudi energy minister suggesting?Steel Update The steel market has also been showing signs of instability, partly due to external factors such as the ongoing US debt ceiling talks and Chinese HRC prices taking a hit. This has compelled European HRC prices to remain under pressure as well. Amid such uncertain market conditions, traders must consider mitigating risks through broader adoption of appropriate hedging techniques. Josh Stern shares an update on the steel market and how the European HRC price is affected by Chinese mills targeting Southeast Asian markets. Timestamped summary of this episode: 00:00:00 - Introduction, Fernanda introduces the episode and the topics of discussion, which include the fuel oil market’s reaction to U.S. debt ceiling discussions and the upcoming OPEC meeting, as well as updates on the steel market. 00:00:44 - Fuel Oil Update, Archie Smith gives an update on the front sing time spreads, which have been well offered and sold down. He also discusses the low sulfur fuel or cracks and states that the market is lacking direction, but the fuel oil market is sensitive to geopolitical topics. Smith mentions that OPEC may step in again and slash production further than before, and the market is waiting for updates on U.S. debt ceiling talks. 00:07:48 - Steel Update, Josh Stern discusses the recent developments in the HRC space, where European HRC prices continue to be under pressure due to Chinese mills targeting the southeast Asian markets. Stern also talks about a study conducted by his team with Platts, which found scrap and rebar to be viable hedging products for wire rod exposure. More research is being done to find correlations between tradable exchange products and physical markets. 00:10:18 - Conclusion, Fernanda wraps up the episode and reminds listeners to check out the website for more information and show notes.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

As steel prices continue to fall and demand remains low, a critical resource is becoming increasingly important - scrap. But with concerns over maintaining the supply of scrap, the scrap market is seeing significant volatility and a shift towards a contango environment. Will anyone be able to lock in profits and manage their cash flows amidst this perfect storm? Find out in this week's episode of Freight Up! from FIS.Fuel Market Update The fuel market bears significance to the steel industry due to geopolitical tensions in shaping the oil sector. Investors in the steel domain should be aware of events like the crackdown on imports of Indian fuel refined from Russian crude or America's plan to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Archie Smith shares his observations on the fuel market and its interplay with the steel industry. He discusses the EU's measures against Indian fuel imports from Russia and emphasizes the significance of the Sing 0.5 spread, high sulphur fuel oil cracks, and the resulting market squeeze. Steel Market Update Aspects of the steel market like demand from OEMs and interest rates have the power to drive changes in the physical markets. The industry has recently witnessed a shift in sentiment around scrap, making it an essential input for investors to track. The scrap curve moving into a contango environment and the overall volatility calls for investors to stay vigilant, lock in margins, and manage their cash flows in the face of these challenges. Joshua Stern offers his valuable insight on the steel market and talks about mis-pricings or opportunities arising from the ongoing challenges. Ferrous Complex Update Changes in global demand, supply chain disruptions, and environmental concerns can impact commodity markets, which in turn, affect the steel industry. Keeping an eye on the state of the commodity market provides crucial insights to investors for timely decision-making. One notable example is the recent spike in commodity prices, attributed to various factors such as Chinese demand, supply chain hiccups, and environmental considerations. This awareness of market movements can help steel investors make strategic moves and navigate through uncertainty. Hao Pei delves into the issues affecting the commodity market and its influence.Ask Hao Pei for his FIS Macro report by contacting him via LinkedInUSDA Predicts Increase in Chinese Corn Imports Kerry Deal shares his thoughts on the potential growth opportunities in the Panamax market, backed by the USDA's optimistic predictions about Chinese imports. He talks about his stance on Capes from a macro perspective, and highlights how he believes that the positive outlook for grain imports to China can result in a brighter path for the Panamax market in Q3. The key moments in this episode are: 00:00:00 - Introduction 00:01:01 - Fuel Market Update 00:05:15 - Ferrous Complex Update00:09:20 - Steel Market Update00:14:45 - Opportunities in Mispricings 00:16:31 - Shocking Week for Cape Rates 00:18:03 - Panamaxes Present a Grim Picture 00:19:16 - USDA Predicts Increase in Chinese Corn ImportsThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy