Freight Up! Fuel oil, iron ore, steel and other commodity insights from Freight Investor Services

Market Volatility and Season's Greetings! Hello and welcome to a special edition of Freight Up, the go-to podcast for the latest buzz in the commodities and freight markets from FIS. I'm your host, Fernanda, and boy, do we have a jam-packed episode lined up for you this week. And it's just as well because this is our last episode of 2023!We've got Joshua Stern, Archie Smith, Hao Pei, George Huston, and of course, John Banaszkiewicz, centre stage to dissect the fluctuations that are setting the tone for both 2023 and the predictions that 2024 holds. We're also linking here to the website John B mentions in his conversation with us, in case you're feeling festively charitable and want to help us to help Ukraine!We'll explore the ripples of the nickel price surge on battery costs and the consequent allure for financial players in the green battery production space. Josh will take us through the steel markets, from USHRC to scrap, and we'll delve into the ever-fluctuating landscape of oil with Archie's expert insights on those OPEC decisions and their far-reaching impacts. Oh and an update on Al Zour!But it's not all charts and numbers; we'll touch upon the more personal side of our guests as they share their humanitarian efforts, their holiday cheer, and, yes, their plans for their four-legged friends during the festive season. Love going straight out to the Smith family doggos!With the masterful breakdowns from our commodity connoisseurs, we're looking at market drivers like freight, iron ore, and the growth of the battery metals market with us lot at FIS setting the pace. We're also zooming into the futures of Supermax, Cape, and more with eye-opening contract period interests that have surged before we all turn our calendars.George Houston's ground-breaking venture into the fertiliser options market and Hao Pei's prediction on iron ore prices serve as testaments to the innovation and foresight pulsing through the veins of this industry.Timestamps05:05 Poor demand outlook, shipping route concerns impact prices.09:32 Volatility in markets, challenging year for traders.11:00 Market sentiment leans positive, despite volatility.16:32 Complexity and volatility in the environmental market.20:01 Steel market experiencing volatility, momentum slowing down.23:39 Curve flattens, backwardation returns, interest in 2024.27:42 North China weather disrupts port, Pacific rates rise.29:02 Highly volatile week in shipping and trading.32:12 Panamax, Cape, Supermax saw high trading volumes.36:28 Specialised in grain risk management; advocating accessibility.40:32 Iron ore demand and supply dynamics suggest bearish outlook.42:37 Iron ore prediction for 2024: higher average.Remember to review and follow us on whichever app you enjoy listening to us in!This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

Cape Market's Christmas PresentWelcome back to another episode of Freight Up, the podcast where we deep-dive into the latest trends in the shipping and commodities markets. The episode kicks off with an exciting revelation of record cleared volumes in the Cape size contracts on the 29th of November. The substantial jump in spot rates and the notional value of trades underscored the fervent activity in the market, prompting eager anticipation for what might unfold in 2024. We'll give you a detailed breakdown of the driving forces behind this market frenzy, including factors such as the influx of financial players, post-rainy season uptick, higher-than-expected volumes from our major players.Comparative Analysis: 2024 vs. 2008Drawing from historical data, the episode delves into a comparison between the current market state and the monumental events of 2008. Spot rates, year-to-date figures, and notable trades were dissected to provide an insightful juxtaposition of the past and present, offering a nuanced perspective on the market's evolution over time.Hao Pei's Insights on Iron Ore and 2024 Market ForecastThe episode features a thought-provoking discussion with Hao Pei, who shared his assessment of the iron ore market's recent trends and his outlook for 2024. An analysis of the iron ore index's fluctuations, combined with a projection of future volatility, paint a comprehensive picture of what lies ahead. Hao Pei's insights into the challenges and opportunities that the market may encounter in 2024 shed light on the potential scenarios that could unfold, providing listeners with valuable foresight into this crucial commodity's trajectory.Timestamps00:00 Financial players bring liquidity, boost volumes. Iron ore rises, concerns over Chinese property.05:36 Iron ore market shows volatility and weakness.07:52 Iron ore index forecast: 2024 prices and challenges10:22 Close-up view of freight operations.Remember to review and follow us on whichever app you enjoy listening to us in!This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

EU ETS, and Energy AlternativesWelcome back to another episode of Freight Up, the podcast where we deep-dive into the latest trends in the shipping and commodities markets. EU ETS explained As shipping companies face new regulations we've got a freight container-full of insights awaiting us.The EU ETS conundrum is upon us and our experts Luke and Hugh will unwrap the layers of complexity in managing these emissions, the role of traders in a green future, and the strategies for dealing with EU allowances.Also, here's the link to the site they mention!Panamax ratesIn this episode, as markets navigate through choppy waters, we'll explore the strong currents in the Panamax rates driven by an insatiable mineral demand and the emergence of Indonesian coal cargoes that's pushing volumes to new heights in Asia. We're also seeing significant fixtures across the transatlantic with a special eye on mineral cargoes.Talking trade trends, we'll dissect the flurry of activity in the Dry FFA market, especially within Cape, Panamax, and Supermax contracts. Coking coal chaosThen, there's China where coking coal futures are surging—an aftershock of governmental inspects and unfortunate mining mishaps. Despite this, the outlook on Fob Australia Coking coal suggests that the supply may remain tight, with miners jostling for their slice of the pie. LNG's futureOur guest, Dr Jonathan Gaylor, who has 10 years’ experience in alternative fuels, currently serving as the Alternative Fuels Manager for Navig8, a prominent shipping and trading company that includes Integr8, will share his expert take on LNG's bullish future. We'll uncover why LNG dual fuel vessels may hold the competitive edge and discuss why gas price volatility could be a silver lining for traders. With the winter season ahead, LNG prices could spell out future trends. Timestamps00:00 SGMF and majors improve bunkering; price challenges remain.07:26 Viable shipping sectors for Prabs, considering market changes.09:57 Ship owners face challenges in managing risk.12:45 Winter will showcase LNG market's future direction.17:05 Two likely scenarios regarding ship management contracts.20:41 Malta, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and Cyprus requirements.25:06 Warehousing EUAs for clients offers advantages.28:21 Uncertainty over oil production cuts extension speculation.29:05 Oil prices fell sharply but recovered quickly.33:14 Refinery maintenance caused high fuel prices.37:59 Cape Market saw surge in rates, trading.39:14 Iron ore freight rates surged due to strong demand and active trading in China.43:36 Record future volumes in Dry FFAs market.47:14 Limited impact on Fob and coal markets.Remember to review and follow us on whichever app you enjoy listening to us in!This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

Positive sentiment in freight market as BHP iron ore news dominates headlines! Oh, and OPEC... Welcome back to another episode of Freight Up! in which we're this week discussing the BHP iron ore division strikes. Also, what does this weekend's OPEC meeting have in store for us?   Welcome back to another episode of the "Freight Up!" podcast! In this week's episode, our host Fernanda is joined by guests Hao Pei and Archie to discuss into the latest developments in the fuel market and the impact of the BHP strikes on the iron ore industry. Archie provides insights into the fluctuating fuel market, discussing the recent turbulence in crude prices and the upcoming OPEC meeting. Meanwhile, Hao shares his firsthand experience from the FIS Shanghai seminar and provides an in-depth analysis of the BHP strikes and its potential impact on the market. Also, Fernanda will give us another run down of the market report. Listen as we uncover the implications of all these developments and explore what lies ahead for the freight industry.  Let's get started!   Summary of this episode: Fuel Market - Crude oil prices have been flat and sideways, but experienced a sharp slump last week. - The slump was caused by a poor demand outlook and US stockpile builds. - Market is waiting for the outcome of the OPEC meeting. - Fuel oil complex has been strong, supported by tight supplies, especially in the very low sulfur fuel oil segment. - High sulfur fuel oil market has been stable. Freight Market - Positive sentiment in the freight market, with gains in various vessel sizes. - Panamax and Cape sizes experienced significant increases. - Strong coal demand and rise in demand for mineral cargoes contributed to the positive sentiment. - Iron ore and coal volumes increased. - Rate increases observed in various routes and contracts. BHP Strikes - BHP strikes rumors and concerns have been circulating in the market. - The news of strikes has generated attention, but the actual impact is uncertain. - Talks and discussions on strikes have been ongoing for two years. - Potential consequences include a shortage in iron ore shipments if strikes occur, leading to an increase in prices. - If strikes are avoided and a deal is reached, iron ore prices may correct and enter a downward phase. - Attention needs to be paid to China's stimulus policies and GDP expectations. FIS Shanghai Seminar - The FIS Shanghai Seminar was held with a large number of registered attendees. - Successful networking and cross-commodity discussions took place. - Positive feedback received from attendees regarding the party. - Expectations for increased volume in cross-commodity trades in the future. - Focus on building relationships and expanding knowledge across different commodity sectors.    Here's the link to the FIS live app Timestamped summary of this episode: 01:39 Global demand outlook worsens, stockpiles build up 10:18 Iron ore route to China fixed at $10.55, tight vessel supply in Brazil, Panamax rates rise 26%. 12:36 Supermax paper opens slow, but gains momentum. 15:41 John B happy with FIS party, great feedback. 20:53 Talks on strikes, union condition potentially changed gradually. Friday's campaign, decision about strikes in 10 days. Iron price high due to concerns. 23:02 BHP impact on price; hike expected. Eye on China stimulus.   Also, please, seriously... do follow the show and leave us a review, via our website at freightuppodcast.comThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

Iron Ore News: Insights on the 24% Rebound since August and Projected Market Outlook Welcome back to another episode of Freight Up! in which we're this week discussing the rebound of iron ore and what the future holds for this trend. Plus, we'll take a look at the recent drop in the handy seven TC index and its implications. Also, Archie Smith will be with us as usual to gives us an update on the current state of the oil market amid the ongoing Gaza strip crisis. So sit back, relax, and get ready for another jam-packed episode of Freight Up! Oh, and please don't forget to follow us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and leave us a review on your favourite podcast app. We make this easy for you to do on our website at freightuppodcast.com. Your feedback makes a difference. Now, let's get the show on the road!   Summary of this episode: Fuel Market - Chinese economic data affecting oil market - US government buying back Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) oil - Impact of SPR buying on crude prices - Support for high sulfur fuel oil market - Potential easing of fuel markets due to diesel export ban discussions Iron Ore Market - Rebound in iron ore demand since August - Key drivers of iron ore rebound - Uncertain future of iron ore trend for the rest of the year - Factors to watch for in the coming week: treating volume of China domestic steels, maintenance in steel mills Freight Market - Positive trend in larger vessel sizes driven by rising iron ore demand and grain shipments - Outlook for Cape size, Panamax, and Supermax segments - FFA market indexes and their growth    Here's the link to the FIS live app Timestamped summary of this episode: 00:32 Archie Smith begins his fuel oil market update. 03:36 US government plans to buy oil back. 09:02 Positive trends in iron ore demand, grain shipments. 12:35 Negative market index, limited trading activity.  16:31 Higher iron ore valuation expected, but volatile.  20:07 Monitor China's steel volume, winter impact.   Please, seriously... do follow the show and leave us a review, via our website at freightuppodcast.comThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

The Impact of a Strong Dollar and Reinforced Oil Reserves on the Oil Market Welcome back to Freight Up! This episode comes with an accompanying resource - how exciting for you! Here's where you'll find all the stuff we talk about in the show: Click for resources In this episode, we have a lot of interesting topics to cover. We'll start with the impact of a strong dollar and reinforced oil reserves on the oil market with Archie Smith. We also have an interview with Andrew Schenkel from Chart IQ, who will share his macroeconomic view for next year and how it will affect market activity. Luke Hanley from our research team will join us to discuss the cost of fuel oil on freight. And of course, we'll discuss the latest trends in freight rates and market activity. So grab a cup of something hot and wet, sit back, relax, and enjoy our analysis of freight commodities on "Freight Up"!   Here's the link to the FIS live app Timestamped summary of this episode: 00:00:19 Freight podcast with graphs, oil, and rates. 00:05:02 Brent cracks up, fuel market stable. 00:06:29 Low sulfur complex sees tight supply, boosted futures. High sulfur east west rallies $18. 00:09:56 Active morning in freight rates; November trading high. 00:15:40 High fuel and freight rates impact earnings. 00:18:50 Ben's analyst for war games, charts, insights on market trends. 00:20:56 Bull run expected, slide shows positive trend. 00:23:25 Yields rising, TBT shows clear reactions. Please do follow the show and leave us a review, via our website at freightuppodcast.comThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

From Cape Sizes to Crude Oil: An In-depth Look at Market Movements and Macroeconomic News Welcome back to Freight Up!  We might be a little late with our grim tale this week given the release of this episode, but... In this week's episode, we're covering quite a lot of ground, starting off with the continuing unrest caused by turmoil in the Middle East. We're discussing the war premium and how that impacts on the market. And if you guessed 'pricing' when you read that... you might be on to something. Oh, and how is China getting all involved with things? Do listen to learn more from our very own Ricky Forman.   The Ferrous complex This one offers us a contrasting narrative. Our expert in the field Hao Pei is here to tell us about some unexpected iron ore movements being caused by macroeconomic shifts in China. Here's the link to the FIS live app Timestamped summary of this episode: 00:02:14 Topsy turvy markets due to Middle East war concerns 00:04:22 Brent price drops due to war, demand concerns. 00:08:19 Dry freight market drops, vessel supply outweighs demand. 00:10:03 Negative sentiment continues, but some improvement seen. 00:16:30 Iron ore markets trade on expectations. China's government getting involved. 00:20:03 BHP strikes, iron ore demand, pollution concerns. Please do follow the show and leave us a review, via our website at freightuppodcast.com  This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

Middle East turmoil and the price of crude: analysing the connection Welcome back to Freight Up! In this week's episode, we dive into the impact of the Israel-Hamas war on the crude market. Archie Smith sheds light on the current state of fuel prices and how they have been affected by recent events. We also discuss the long awaited FFA update and get a glimpse into the paper market.  Bloomberg Report on Physical Prices: Welcome back to Freight Up! Our weekly podcast from Freight Investor Services - or as we're more affectionately known - FIS is here to bring you another massive update. The recent Bloomberg report that highlights a slip in physical crude prices. We talk about the phenomenon and what it's attributed to. And just what is happening with crude inventories in the US?  Here's the link to the FIS live app Timestamped summary of this episode: 00:01:02 Greenback strengthens, crude slips due to dollar. 00:05:24 High sulfur cracks fall, spreads widen. Strong buying interest from shipping hedges. 00:09:24 Little movement, highs to lows throughout week. Panamax December contract falls. 00:11:06 Cal 24 stable, Supermax World falls, Q4 tighterThis podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

Markets react to the tragic events Welcome back to Freight Up! Our weekly podcast from Freight Investor Services - or as we're more affectionately known - FIS is here to bring you another massive update.  Middle East Unrest Hey, I'm your host Fernanda! In this week's episode we're discussing the current events unfolding in the Middle East and how they're impacting the commodity markets.  Join us as our experts provide insights on the reaction of the fuel and crude markets to the geopolitical news. We will also get an update on iron ore and explore the latest developments in the FIS Carbon market. Carbon Market Our head of environmental products brings us the latest developments in the carbon discussion. While most of the focus has been on the geopolitical events in the Middle East, it's crucial not to overlook the ongoing conversation around carbon emissions and their impact on the freight and commodities industry. The carbon discussion has been gaining momentum in recent years as the world grapples with the urgent need to address climate change. Industries across the board, including freight and commodities, are facing increasing pressure to reduce their carbon footprint and adopt more sustainable practices. Featured guests in this episode are Archie Smith, James Robinson and Theodore Goulios.   Here's the link to the FIS live app   Timestamped summary of this episode: 00:02:28 Market roller coaster with poor demand outlook. 00:04:41 Market fluctuations not directly tied to Israel-Gaza conflict. Singapore had abundant oil supply from Russia, affecting prices. 00:06:41 Israel-Gaza: Monitor global situation, oil may be impacted. 00:13:08 Seamless participation, marketability, communication across industries. 00:14:39 Proof of green power for green companies. International renewable credits link unexpected countries. 00:17:20 Carbon offsets boost company confidence in legislation.This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy

Crude crash and FIS Fertilizer team's risk management tools to bring stability to the market? Welcome back to Freight Up! Our weekly podcast from Freight Investor Services - or as we're more affectionately known - FIS is here to bring you another massive update.  I'm your host, Fernanda, and today we're talking Crude Oil and the KRG pipeline. In this episode, we also have a special treat for you as Barney Talbot-Ponsonby makes his debut and gives us an update on the fertilizer market. Crude crash Archie discusses the recent crash in the crude oil market and its potential impact on supply and demand. He also delves into the factors influencing oil prices, including sentiment and the strength of the US dollar. Additionally, Archie sheds light on the high sulphur market and the recent changes in the crack spread.   Risk management tools We're also joined by Barney Talbot-Ponsonby who talks us through developments in the fertilizer market and shares some sneak preview news around risk management tools!   Here's the link to the FIS live app Timestamped summary of this episode: [00:02:34] Crude oil rally crashes, hitting new lows. [00:03:18] High interest rates fuel global fuel demand. [00:07:23] High sulfur content is good for refining. European market short on high sulfur supply. [00:12:07] Indian tender expected; big moves in market. [00:13:34] Brazil physical offers up, China news slow. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podder - https://www.podderapp.com/privacy-policy