Crypto Voices

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the fiftieth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:58 Weekly balance sheet update 03:30 To be clear: Base money is Notes + Bank reserves 05:50 Treasury general account (an 'other' Fed deposit) 10:50 TGA during covid pandemic 14:10 Treasury doesn't influence monetary policy... right? 22:04 Brief review of (non-bank) Reverse repo facility 25:20 Final review of the Fed's four main liabilities Here we look at the 108 year, 5,655 week history of the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. In this one we are looking specifically at the 'Treasury General Account;' that is, how much money does the US Treasury actually have in its bank account! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-ninth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:50 Monetary base review 02:20 Notes % of balance sheet 07:44 Liability three: Reverse repo facility 08:56 Reverse repo % of balance sheet 09:10 History of Fed publication data 11:33 What are reverse repos? 11:55 Review of notes and reserves vs. Total assets 13:35 Reverse repo % of balance sheet (again) 16:32 Difference between 'repo' and 'reverse repo' 22:16 We need to dig deeper into banking history & legislation! Here we look at the 108 year, 5,654 week history of the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. In this one we are looking specifically at the 'reverse repo' facility for non-banks, and how it has grown over the last 20 years. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-eighth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:15 What is the printing press? 03:03 Liability one: Notes 07:15 Liability two: Reserves 11:39 How big is the Notes % of Base money? 12:59 What about coins? Here we look at the 108 year, 5,654 week history of the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. Building on the last couple videos, in this one we're drilling down into central bank liabilities, which is where the 'Base money' is located. Specifically, there are two types of central bank money that make up the Monetary base; the first is notes (and coins), and the second is bank reserves. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-seventh video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:47 Small numbers long ago, vs. big numbers now? 03:28 All-time trendline 04:50 Pre-2008 trendline 09:00 Post-2007 trendline 13:00 Always comes back to compound growth rate 13:30 Fed balance sheet CAGR 14:25 Rule of 72 (Easiest way to doubling time!) 17:43 All-time trendline CAGR 20:58 Pre-2008 trendline CAGR 21:50 Post-2007 trendline CAGR Here we look at the 108 year, 5,654 week history of the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. How fast does it grow, what is its trendline? In addition to last video, what is the trendline of the Fed's balance sheet before 2008? What about the post-2007 trendline? All-time trendline coefficients: y = a * EXP (b * x) y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x) y = 2.26 * EXP (0.13% * x) Pre-2008 trendline coefficients: y = a * EXP (b * x) y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x) y = 2.74 * EXP (0.12% * x) Post-2007 trendline coefficients: y = a * EXP (b * x) y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x) y = 0.06 * EXP (0.21% * x) https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the one hundred forty-eighth podcast episode from Crypto Voices. Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com Matthew and Alec interview Yaël Ossowski from the Consumer Choice Center, who is also a visiting fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He recently started up a great new pod about Bitcoin, Fix the Money. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:53 Uniform Commercial Code and BTC 10:40 Catawba Digital Economic Zone 14:55 Bank money apps, Cash App, etc. 23:45 Operation Choke Point 2.0 39:36 France - Macron events Links for more info: http://yael.at/ https://consumerchoicecenter.org/team/yael-ossowski/ https://fixthemoney.net/ https://www.btcpolicy.org/articles/in-attempt-to-stop-cbdcs-states-are-rejecting-ostensibly-pro-bitcoin-legislation https://catawbadigital.zone/ https://thenetworkstate.com/ https://rns.id/ Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices Hosts: Matthew Mežinskis, Michel, Alec Harris Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/ Podcast & videos Bitcoin, privacy, cryptoeconomics & liberty Thanks for watching! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-sixth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:36 Used to be hard to find this data... 01:14 Log scale 01:39 What is the Fed's balance sheet? 04:42 What kind of assets do they buy with printed money? 07:01 What about gold? 08:15 History of Fed balance sheet 17:25 Removing money... until last two weeks 20:20 Exponential regression trendline (96% R-squared) 25:20 1-sigma percentile trendlines 26:70 2-sigma percentile trendlines 28:24 All-time compound annual (exponential) growth figures Here we look at a 108 year, 5,654 week history of the Federal Reserve and its balance sheet. How fast does it grow, what is its trendline? What is a taper tantrum? How are they treating the banks? Coefficients: y = a * EXP (b * x) y = y-intercept * EXP (slope * x) y = 2.26 * EXP (0.13% * x) https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-fifth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:22 Bond price and yield are inversely related 00:50 How important is the bond market? 01:59 10-yr note price sensitivity per 1% YTM change 07:10 Other duration bond price sensitivity 09:18 What happens when yields fall? Happy days... 13:00 What happens when yields don't change? 13:51 What happens when yields rise? Pain... 19:16 What is different now, compared with 30 years ago? Here we look at the main reason why banks are struggling today, and in general: The prices of government bonds have fallen drastically in the last year, as bond yields (or interest rates) have risen. This is the main reason why banks like SVB and others are failing. We continue on with last video's theme, but this time we take a look at bond durations above and below 10 years, from 1 year bills, to 50 year bonds (which exist in some countries, though not the US). Remember, the price/value of bonds moves in the opposite direction of their yields/rates! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-fourth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:25 Bonds... and two charts! 00:50 How important is the bond market? 03:40 Importance of 10-year note 04:34 Components of a bond (Yield most important!) 06:14 YTM history of US Treasury 10-yr note 10:11 Bond price sensitivity chart 16:15 Price sensitivity of 10-yr note only 19:55 What happens when yields rise? Pain... 24:15 What happens when yields fall? Fun... Here we look at the main reason why banks are struggling today, and in general: The prices of government bonds have fallen drastically in the last year, as bond yields (or interest rates) have risen. This is the main reason why banks like SVB and others are failing. Remember, the price/value of bonds moves in the opposite direction of their yields/rates! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:43 Log scale 02:20 Bitcoin all-time power regression (95% R-squared) 05:57 1-sigma percentile moves 06:30 2-sigma percentile moves 08:30 3-sigma percentile moves 10:36 3-sigma+ percentile to get to Balaji's bet by mid-June 15:20 Likelihood of price moving above Balaji's trendline 18:55 Year end 2011 power trendline comparison (85% R-squared) 22:04 How rare is a 3-4 sigma move in price? Here we look at Balaji Srinivasan's $1 million price per bitcoin bet within 90 days, made last week. How extraordinary is such a price target? All-time trend coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 6.90E-18 * x ^ 588% Year end 2011 trend coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 2.52E-28 * x ^ 950% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-second video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:56 Bitcoin on log scale, in terms of gold 02:27 Tops and bottoms in USD, what does it mean for BTC.AU? 18:15 Bitcoin priced in gold power trendline (95% R-squared) 18:57 1-sigma percentile moves 20:42 2-sigma percentile moves 24:47 Projecting out to 2030 Here we compare the price per bitcoin in terms of gold; that is, how many gold ounces can we exchange for 1 bitcoin at any point in time? We also layer in its best-fitting trendline, a power regression, as well as 1- and 2-sigma percentile bands to better understand where we are now versus historical levels. Coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 8.14E-21 * x ^ 582% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.