Crypto Voices

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-fifth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 01:22 Bond price and yield are inversely related 00:50 How important is the bond market? 01:59 10-yr note price sensitivity per 1% YTM change 07:10 Other duration bond price sensitivity 09:18 What happens when yields fall? Happy days... 13:00 What happens when yields don't change? 13:51 What happens when yields rise? Pain... 19:16 What is different now, compared with 30 years ago? Here we look at the main reason why banks are struggling today, and in general: The prices of government bonds have fallen drastically in the last year, as bond yields (or interest rates) have risen. This is the main reason why banks like SVB and others are failing. We continue on with last video's theme, but this time we take a look at bond durations above and below 10 years, from 1 year bills, to 50 year bonds (which exist in some countries, though not the US). Remember, the price/value of bonds moves in the opposite direction of their yields/rates! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-fourth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:25 Bonds... and two charts! 00:50 How important is the bond market? 03:40 Importance of 10-year note 04:34 Components of a bond (Yield most important!) 06:14 YTM history of US Treasury 10-yr note 10:11 Bond price sensitivity chart 16:15 Price sensitivity of 10-yr note only 19:55 What happens when yields rise? Pain... 24:15 What happens when yields fall? Fun... Here we look at the main reason why banks are struggling today, and in general: The prices of government bonds have fallen drastically in the last year, as bond yields (or interest rates) have risen. This is the main reason why banks like SVB and others are failing. Remember, the price/value of bonds moves in the opposite direction of their yields/rates! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:43 Log scale 02:20 Bitcoin all-time power regression (95% R-squared) 05:57 1-sigma percentile moves 06:30 2-sigma percentile moves 08:30 3-sigma percentile moves 10:36 3-sigma+ percentile to get to Balaji's bet by mid-June 15:20 Likelihood of price moving above Balaji's trendline 18:55 Year end 2011 power trendline comparison (85% R-squared) 22:04 How rare is a 3-4 sigma move in price? Here we look at Balaji Srinivasan's $1 million price per bitcoin bet within 90 days, made last week. How extraordinary is such a price target? All-time trend coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 6.90E-18 * x ^ 588% Year end 2011 trend coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 2.52E-28 * x ^ 950% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-second video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:56 Bitcoin on log scale, in terms of gold 02:27 Tops and bottoms in USD, what does it mean for BTC.AU? 18:15 Bitcoin priced in gold power trendline (95% R-squared) 18:57 1-sigma percentile moves 20:42 2-sigma percentile moves 24:47 Projecting out to 2030 Here we compare the price per bitcoin in terms of gold; that is, how many gold ounces can we exchange for 1 bitcoin at any point in time? We also layer in its best-fitting trendline, a power regression, as well as 1- and 2-sigma percentile bands to better understand where we are now versus historical levels. Coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 8.14E-21 * x ^ 582% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

This clip is a recap from #32 Decoding Money: Total money supply USA. Why do bitcoins economically compare to base money, and not bank money? Full ep here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zghGPfY3J8I&t=2007s

This clip is a recap from #32 Decoding Money: Total money supply USA. Pinpointing the difference between market money and state money as a basis for monetary philosophy! Full ep here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zghGPfY3J8I&t=2007s

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the one hundred forty-seventh podcast episode from Crypto Voices. Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.com Matthew interviews Alex Gladstein from the Human Rights Foundation on recent banking turmoil, CBDCs, and HRF's new CBDC tracker fellowship he will be working on, together with Janine from This Month in Bitcoin Privacy, and Nick Anthony from the Cato Institute. Contents 00:00 Intro 02:25 Silvergate and SVB 13:33 CBDCs and the HRF Tracker Links for more info:  https://hrf.org/cbdctracker/ Show Sponsor: hodlhodl.com/join/cryptovoices Hosts: Matthew Mežinskis, Michel, Alec Harris Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/ Podcast & videos Bitcoin, privacy, cryptoeconomics & liberty Thanks for watching! https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the forty-first video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 04:50 Remember PSR is gross ratio (before expenses) 05:20 PSR doesn't compare across industries 08:07 PSR all-time average 10:30 PSR power regression trendline (60% R-squared) 13:30 1-sigma percentile moves 14:12 2-sigma percentile moves 19:40 Log scale on right axis We go deeper into the Bitcoin network's Price-to-sales ratio, what it looks like historically, as well as the evolution of its own power trendline with percentile bands. Coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 4.74E-05 * x ^ 163% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the fortieth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:28 Origins of metric 01:54 Numerator: Market cap ($) 03:42 Denominator: Trailing-12 month miner network revenue ($) 05:55 Ratio recap and importance 09:10 "Price-to-sales" (PSR) ratio for Bitcoin 10:30 PSR: All-time low 16:20 PSR: All-time high 19:37 Basic interpretation of low and high PSR Here we compare the Bitcoin network supply in USD-terms (otherwise known as the market cap) with the miner trailing-12 month revenue (block reward + fees) across the entire network. This gives us a gross "Price-to-sales" ratio; in other words, how many multiples the network is worth versus network-wide revenues, at any given time. https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.

Check out show sponsor Coinkite: https://coinkite.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/ This is the thirty-ninth video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast. Contents 00:00 Intro 00:31 Bitcoin supply in BTC-terms 02:07 Bitcoin supply in USD-terms (market cap) 02:41 Four basic regression trendlines 03:09 Bitcoin market cap power trendline (96% R-squared) 05:13 Log scale 06:30 1-sigma percentile moves 07:05 2-sigma percentile moves 19:36 Predictive trendlines Here we compare the Bitcoin network supply in native bitcoins with the Bitcoin network supply in US-dollars. We also layer in its best-fitting trendline, a power regression, as well as 1- and 2-sigma percentile bands to better understand where we are now versus historical levels. Coefficients: y = a * x ^ b y = y-intercept * x ^ slope y = 4.39E-22 * x ^ 657% https://porkopolis.io https://twitter.com/crypto_voices Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.