Thinkers & Ideas

In Big Bet Leadership: Your Transformation Playbook for Winning in the Hyper-Digital Era, John Rossman provides a playbook for becoming an innovation and transformation winner.Rossman was previously an executive at Amazon, responsible for launching their Marketplace business. Now, he is the managing partner of Rossman Partners, advising leading enterprises on large-scale change, and author of the best-selling books The Amazon Way and Think Like Amazon. In his latest book, he examines why high-stakes change efforts fail and how to frame and manage them more effectively. Companies need to think in terms of “big bets,” which will require executives to adopt the right mindset, tactical steps, and leadership habits.In his conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Rossman explains why we need to work in prose, not in PowerPoint; how to think big, while betting small; and how to make the critical decisions to “continue, pivot, or kill” a project.Key topics discussed: 01:19 | What makes a “big bet”04:10 | Thinking in outcomes06:49 | Prose over PowerPoint12:51 | Thinking big, but betting small16:21 | Thinking in systems19:21 | How to decide to “continue, pivot, or kill” – and avoid confusion22:45 | Where “big bet” thinking can be appliedAdditional inspirations from John Rossman:The Amazon Way: Amazon's 14 Leadership Principles (Clyde Hill Publishing, 2021)Think Like Amazon: 50 1/2 Ideas to Become a Digital Leader (McGraw Hill, 2019)

In Critical Systems Thinking: A Practitioner's Guide, Michael C. Jackson emphasizes the need for integrating diverse systems methodologies to navigate complexity and uncertainty.Jackson, an emeritus professor of management systems and former dean of the University of Hull Business School, has also served as president of several prominent systems thinking organizations, including the UK Systems Society, the International Federation for Systems Research, and the International Society for the Systems Sciences. His most significant contribution to the field is his development of Critical Systems Thinking (CST), which emphasizes the combined use of different systems approaches to deal with the complexity that leaders face.In a conversation with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Jackson introduces the EPIC process (Explore, Produce, Intervene, and Check), a four-stage, sequential framework to help leaders deploy systems methodologies. Their discussion includes how different systems perspectives can be combined, how theory informs interventions, how organizations are embracing system thinking, barriers to adoption, and the relevance of systems thinking to today’s business environment.Key topics discussed:2:40 | What systems thinking can offer the traditional MBA toolkit5:20 | Systems thinking in contemporary business scenarios6:37 | The EPIC process: Explore, Produce, Intervene, and Check16:52 | Characteristic tools of systems thinking17:34 | The five lenses of systems thinking21:54 | Advancing the agenda of systems thinkingAdditional inspirations from Michael C. Jackson:Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers (John Wiley & Sons, 2023)Systems Approaches to Management (Springer, 2000)Critical Systems Thinking and the Management of Complexity (Wiley, 2019)Creative Problem Solving: Total Systems Intervention (Wiley, 1991)

There is no shortage of technologists touting the promise of AI, but the frontier of AI fervor is a noted philosopher who thinks the economy could double every few months—and that space colonization by self-replicating machines may not be hundreds of years away.Enter Nick Bostrom, who previously authored the 2014 bestseller Superintelligence about the dangers of AI, and now considers what can go right with AI in his new book Deep Utopia. Bostrom was formerly a professor at Oxford University, and currently principal researcher of the Macrostrategy Research Initiative.In this episode, he joins Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, Chief Economist of BCG, who is skeptical of AI narratives and thinks technology’s economic impact has long-lagged expectations. They discuss different takes on the likely size and speed of AI’s impact on the macroeconomy, and why they disagree about the prospect of tech-driven mass unemployment. Bostrom also explains key themes from Deep Utopia, including stages of utopia, “shallow and deep” redundancy, implications for policy, as well as the unique rhetorical style of the book.Key topics discussed: 01:45 | Is tech jumping ahead or behind schedule?03:24 | Is Deep Utopia really a book about AI or about philosophy?04:39 | Technological unemployment: Real or fallacious10:54 | Taxonomy of utopia13:59 | What about public policy, such as UBI?15:47 | Concept of shallow and deep redundancy18:50 | Concept of “interestingness”21:07 | Rhetorical style of book23:29 | AI regulation and policyAdditional inspirations from Nick Bostrom:Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (Oxford University Press, 2014)

In The Great Disconnect: Hopes and Fears After the Excess of Globalization, Marco Magnani explores the factors that are driving the crisis of globalization we are currently experiencing.Magnani teaches international economics at LUISS University in Rome and Università Cattolica in Milan. Previously, he was a senior research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and worked in investment banking for two decades. In his new book, he discusses the history of internationalization and the benefits that modern globalization has brought—as well as the drawbacks that have become increasingly apparent.Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Magnani discusses the causes of the increasing global disconnect—beyond U.S.-China tensions. He also lays out four scenarios for how globalization may play out, as well as practical tips for how executives can prepare for these different futures in a time of deep uncertainty.Key topics discussed: 01:19 | The great disconnect04:13 | The benefits and downsides of modern globalization07:21 | Future scenarios for globalization13:28 | What the history of internationalization reveals about where we are heading15:25 | Implications of AI for globalization16:33 | How globalization or de-globalization might play out in practice21:10 | Implications for businessesAdditional inspirations from Marco Magnani:Making the Global Economy Work for Everyone: Lessons of Sustainability from the Tech Revolution and the Pandemic (Palgrave Macmillan, 2022)Creating Economic Growth: Lessons for Europe (Palgrave Macmillan, 2014)

In Assembling Tomorrow: A Guide to Designing a Thriving Future, Carissa Carter and Scott Doorley explore the intangible forces that make it hard to anticipate how new technologies create impact and what we can do about this challenge during the design process for new applications.Carter is the Director of Teaching and Learning at the Hasso Plattner Institute of Design at Stanford – also known as the Stanford d.school. Doorley is a Creative Director at the d.school, having previously worked in the film industry for more than a decade.Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, they discuss how designers, technologists, and corporate leaders can more effectively harness transformative technologies like AI and artificial biology by giving more weight to non-technical factors like emotions, perceptions, imagination, and serendipity.Key topics discussed: 01:23 | The problem of runaway design03:16 | The forces that make technology impact unpredictable09:17 | The role of emotions in design11:59 | Why we are not thinking about unpredictability in designing technologies15:17 | Potential solutions to new design problems22:22 | Applying these solutions to AI24:20 | Implications for businessesAdditional inspirations from Scott Doorley: Make Space: How to Set the Stage for Creative Collaboration (Wiley, 2011)Additional inspirations from Carissa Carter:The Secret Language of Maps: How to Tell Visual Stories with Data (Ten Speed Press, 2022)

In How to Become Famous: Lost Einsteins, Forgotten Superstars, and How the Beatles Came to Be, Cass Sunstein reveals why some individuals become celebrities—and others don’t.Sunstein has long been at the forefront of behavioral economics. He is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard Law School and served as the administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Obama administration. He has authored numerous best sellers, such as Nudge and The World According to Star Wars. In his new book, he explores the roles played by skill, luck, and social processes in the achievement of fame and success—based on recent research on informational cascades, reputation cascades, network effects, and group polarization.Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Sunstein discusses how a better understanding of these mechanisms can help businesses make better decisions in marketing, talent management, and innovation - and why the greatest composer of all time may not be J S Bach, but rather Taylor Swift.Key topics discussed: 03:18 | How to prove whether or not fame is driven by merit06:08 | The importance of quality and skill to fame09:33 | Enduring vs. transient fame11:36 | The greatest composers of all time: Bach vs. Taylor Swift14:44 | Social factors driving fame19:54 | The role of group polarization and network effects28:48 | Implications for businesses: Marketing, talent, innovation33:19 | The art of manipulating information cascadesAdditional inspirations from Cass Sunstein:Thinkers & Ideas: Look Again with Cass SunsteinLook Again: The Power of Noticing What Was Always There; with Tali Sharot (Atria/One Signal Publishers, 2024)Nudge; with Richard Thaler (Penguin Books, 2021)Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment; with Daniel Kahneman, and Olivier Sibony (Random House Audio, 2021)The World According to Star Wars (Dey Street Books, 2016)

In The Ritual Effect: From Habit to Ritual, Harness the Surprising Power of Everyday Actions, Michael Norton explores how the little things we do can create big impact.Norton is the Harold M. Brierley Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, where he also leads the unit for negotiation, organization, and markets. A well known and respected researcher on behavioral economics and well-being, his new book demonstrates the power of small acts—and how a subtle shift of turning habits into rituals can add purpose and pleasure to life.Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Norton discusses how we can use rituals deliberately and effectively in our life and work, why it is important that rituals evolve over time, and how COVID changed our rituals as individuals and as teams.Key topics discussed: 00:52 | Ritual vs. habit03:39 | The power (and pitfalls) of rituals07:08 | Deliberately using rituals (in private life and the workplace)13:41 | The importance of evolving rituals18:22 | How COVID changed our rituals21:20 | How CEOs can harness the power of ritualsAdditional inspirations from Michael Norton: Happy Money: The Science of Smarter Spending co-authored by Elizabeth Dunn (Simon & Schuster, 2013)How to Buy Happiness (TED Talk, 2012)

In Survive, Reset, Thrive: Leading Breakthrough Growth Strategy in Volatile Times, Rebecca Homkes guides leaders on how to turn uncertainty into opportunity.Homkes teaches business strategy at the London Business School, is on the faculty of Duke Corporate Education, and consults major companies on strategy. She has developed a framework for leading through uncertainty based on three principles: setting up the firm for continuity through shocks (survive), making strategic choices for growth as the situation changes (reset), and ensuring implementation of the new business model (thrive).Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Homkes discusses how to thrive under uncertainty and how her framework applies in the context of the AI revolution.Key topics discussed: 02:11 | How uncertainty affects strategy03:40 | The survive, reset, thrive framework05:20 | How to survive a shock09:20 | How to reset for a new environment14:42 | How to execute so you can thrive in the long term19:12 | The creative vs. competitive aspects of strategy24:11 | How algorithms and AI will affect strategy and the strategy process27:49 | Applying this framework in your personal life

At the BCG Henderson Institute, we aim to bring forward-looking leaders the ideas and inspirations that will shape their next game. To honor this mission—and celebrate the 100th episode of our Thinkers & Ideas podcast—we welcomed three leading futurists to discuss the evolution of business and society.Rita McGrath is a professor of management at Columbia Business School, and has been ranked among the top 10 management thinkers globally by Thinkers50 for years. Gary Shteyngart, a professor of writing at Columbia University is also a New York Times bestselling author of science fiction novels. Esther Dyson, founder of Wellville, is an investor, writer, and expert on all things tech, space, and health.Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, they discuss their complementary perspectives on the future. They also divulge their methods for making predictions, providing valuable hints for how business leaders can use similar approaches to shape their perspectives and strategies.Key topics discussed: 02:06 | Revisiting past predictions about the future05:08 | The digital age08:16 | Social media and a technology-centred society12:47 | Methods for sensing the future”17:23 | Harnessing the power of science fiction22:31 | Using metaphors24:41 | Bringing together these future-sensing methods31:07 | Predictions about what is coming nextAdditional inspirations from Rita McGrath, Gary Shteyngart, and Esther Dyson:Seeing Around Corners: How to Spot Inflection Points in Business Before They Happen By Rita McGrath(Harper Business, 2019)Super Sad True Love Story: A Novel By Gary Shteyngart (Random House Trade Paperbacks, 2011)Release 2.0: A Design for Living in the Digital Age By Esther Dyson (Broadway, 1997)

In Look Again: The Power of Noticing What Was Always There, Cass Sunstein, together with his co-author Tali Sharot, discusses the importance of reevaluating the familiar to discover new insights.Sunstein has long been at the forefront of behavioral economics. He is the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard Law School and served as the administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in the Obama administration. He has authored numerous best sellers, such as Nudge and The World According to Star Wars., In his new book, he explores the effects of habituation—ceasing to notice the familiar.Together with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Sunstein discusses the perils of habituation and how to see the unseen. He also identifies ways that company leaders can strategically avoid habituation to ensure their organizations do not get stuck in mental models that limit adaptability to new trends and challenges.Key topics discussed: 01:09 | How habituation works04:25 | What dishabituation is08:18 | How to see the unseen13:51 | How corporations should think about (dis-)habituation22:08 | Breaking free from a mental model24:21 | Personal strategies for dishabituationAdditional inspirations from Cass Sunstein:Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment; co-authored by Daniel Kahneman and Olivier Sibony (Little Brown Spark, 2021)The World According to Star Wars (Dey Street Books, 2016)Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness; co-authored by Richard Thaler (Penguin Books, 2009)