Thinkers & Ideas

In After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People, Dean Spears and Michael Geruso argue that the defining demographic risk of this century is global depopulation.Spears and Geruso are both professors at the University of Texas at Austin, focusing on economic demography and development economics. In their new book, they explore the trend of falling birth rates, how it threatens human progress, and what actions may reverse this trend.In their conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, they discuss projections for global depopulation, why advances in AI and robotics will not replace humans, why fewer people may not be good for the planet, and what the implications of all this are for business leaders.Key topics discussed:01:06 | Projected global population levels06:11 | The impact of depopulation11:00 | The potential for AI and robotics to replace humans17:00 | The environmental implications of depopulation21:24 | Potential solutions to falling birth rates26:02 | Implications for business leaders28:26 | Reasons to remain hopefulAdditional inspirations from Dean Spears:Air: Pollution, Climate Change and India's Choice Between Policy and Pretence (Harper Collins Publishers India, 2019)Where India Goes: Abandoned Toilets, Stunted Development and the Costs of Caste, co-authored by Diane Coffey (Harper Collins Publishers India, 2017)

In How Progress Ends: Technology, Innovation, and the Fate of Nations, Carl Benedikt Frey argues that progress, throughout history, has not just depended on technological innovations but also on the flexibility of our institutions.Frey is the associate professor of AI & Work at the University of Oxford, where he directs the Future of Work program. In his new book, he explores how technological progress has unfolded throughout history, from the Qin Dynasty to Silicon Valley. He argues that progress is always fragile, resting on achieving a delicate balance between decentralized innovation and centralized scaling of new technologies.In his conversation with Adam Job, senior director at the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses how to achieve institutional flexibility, the hurdles we must overcome to turn AI into progress, and what lessons history holds for business leaders looking to navigate the conundrum of innovating versus scaling.Key topics discussed: 01:15 | The fragility of progress05:35 | The role of decentralization and centralization11:24 | How to achieve institutional flexibility17:29 | The hurdles to overcome for turning AI into progress21:04 | How business leaders can navigate the conundrum of innovating vs. scaling25:00 | Why progress might not yet endAdditional inspirations from Carl Benedikt Frey:The Technology Trap: Capital, Labor, and Power in the Age of Automation (Princeton University Press, 2019)

In Anointed: The Extraordinary Effects of Social Status in A Winner-Take-Most World, Toby Stuart dives deeply into the power that social status holds over us.Stuart is the Leo Helzel Chair in Entrepreneurship and Innovation at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business. In his new book, he explores how social status shapes everything—from who we trust and what we value, to which ideas and innovations change the world and who gets credit for their success.In his conversation with Adam Job, Senior Director at the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses the cumulative effects of social status, whereby small initial differences can snowball into outsize effects. He also outlines why the social status system persists despite a prevailing distrust in elites—and how AI may yet be poised to change the system.Key topics discussed: 01:44 | The importance of social status05:15 | The role of anointment in modern times13:23 | The cumulative effects of social status19:18 | Why the social status system persists21:23 | How AI may change the role of social status24:45 | The downsides of high social status, and how to deal with them

Sangeet Paul Choudary, founder of Platformation Labs and an expert on AI and platforms, shares intriguing insights from his book, Reshuffle. He challenges misconceptions about AI's role, emphasizing that its true power lies in enhancing coordination, not just automating tasks. Choudary discusses how AI will redefine job value and lead us to a modular, on-demand economy. He also introduces the concept of 'coordination without consensus,' showing how companies can adapt their strategies in this evolving landscape.

In The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World, Hal Brands illuminates the historical patterns we must understand in order to better navigate the geopolitical rivalries of the present.Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He is also a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. In his new book, he traces the arc from World War I to today’s rivalries between the United States and China, and between NATO and Russia.In his conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses why the 20th and 21st centuries are the Eurasian (rather than the American) Era, how today’s rivalries among great powers differ from those of the past, and what global business must pay attention to in navigating current geopolitical tensions.Key topics discussed: 01:28 | The 20th and 21st centuries as the Eurasian era05:32 | The “historic achievement” of the Cold War08:34 | How today’s rivalries among great powers are different13:14 | The future of Eurasia15:59 | How global businesses can operate in a polarized geopolitical world20:13 | Reasons to be optimistic vs. pessimistic about the futureAdditional inspirations from Hal Brands:Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, co-authored by Michael Beckley (W. W. Norton & Company, 2022)The Lessons of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order, co-authored by Charles Edel (Yale University Press, 2019)The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us about Great-Power Rivalry Today (Yale University Press, 2019)What Good Is Grand Strategy?: Power and Purpose in American Statecraft from Harry S. Truman to George W. Bush (Cornell University Press, 2014)

In The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters, Dame Diane Coyle argues that traditional measures like GDP no longer capture economic realities.Coyle is the Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge. She is also the director of the Productivity Institute, a fellow of the Office for National Statistics, and a member of the UK’s Competition Commission. Drawing on her deep expertise, she proposes an alternative framework for measuring productivity that enables better policymaking.In her conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, she discusses the shortcomings of GDP—such as a lack of accounting for immaterial goods or natural capital, alternative measures of progress, and how corporate leaders should rethink their approach to measurement.Key topics discussed: 01:32 | The shortcomings of GDP as a measure of productivity09:14 | The issues of inflated GDP statements11:12 | Alternative measures of productivity and progress13:47 | A time-based approach to measuring productivity16:39 | How productivity measurement works in practice18:57 | Implications for corporate leadersAdditional inspirations from Diane Coyle:Cogs and Monsters: What Economics Is, and What It Should Be (Princeton University Press, 2021)GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History (Princeton University Press, 2015)The Soulful Science: What Economists Really Do and Why It Matters (Princeton University Press, 2009)Sex, Drugs and Economics: An Unconventional Intro to Economics (Texere, 2002)

In Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman argues that the nature of international power has fundamentally shifted from military might to economic statecraft.Fishman is a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy and an adjunct professor of International and Public Affairs at Columbia. Previously, he served at the US State Department, leading work on economic sanctions. In his new book, he examines how governments—particularly the US’s—are increasingly using financial tools, regulatory measures, and targeted sanctions to shape international relations, secure strategic advantages, and resolve conflicts.In his conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, he discusses the history of sanctions, how the US came to wield them so powerfully, how diplomatic back channels are navigated in applying them—and what is important for making them effective in enforcing the desired governance changes.Key topics discussed: 02:05 | The history of chokepoints and US dominance over them08:45 | The role of businesses in economic diplomacy12:17 | Navigating diplomatic back channels15:32 | The role of technology and export controls19:45 | Oil price caps as an innovation in sanctions design23:10 | The effectiveness of sanctions in enforcing governance changes27:44 | On the origins of this bookAdditional inspirations from Edward Fishman:Foreign Affairs: How Trump Could Dethrone the Dollar (April 8, 2025)

In There's Nothing Like This: The Strategic Genius of Taylor Swift, Kevin Evers examines the singer-songwriter's remarkable career success from a business strategy perspective.Evers is a senior editor at Harvard Business Review, where he has edited bestselling and award-winning books on high performance, creativity, innovation, digital disruption, marketing, and strategy.In discussion with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, they cover the scale and longevity of Swift's success, the strategic moves and innovations that have driven her rise and staying power, her ability to reinvent herself and connect with fans in new ways, and lessons for strategists and companies.

In Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier, Matthew C. Weinzierl and Brendan Rosseau discuss the discuss the history, the present, and the future of the space economy.Weinzierl is the Joseph and Jacqueline Elbling professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School and founder of the Economics of Space project at HBS. Rosseau is an Orbital Launch strategy manager at the American space technology company Blue Origin. Together, they provide in-depth academic and practitioner perspectives on the space economy.In their conversation with Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, they discuss the central governance vs. market-driven models of the space economy, the geopolitics of space, and whether the first trillionaire will be an asteroid miner.Key topics discussed: 02:03 | The three phases of the space economy05:28 | Central governance vs. market-driven model of the space economy08:23 | Geopolitics of space11:33 | The market structure of the space economy (on Earth)17:14 | Space junk21:03 | Asteroid mining23:47 | How to make space interesting again

In The Corporation in the Twenty-First Century: Why (Almost) Everything We Are Told About Business Is Wrong, John Kay provides a novel perspective on the evolution of the contemporary corporation.One of the UK’s leading economists, Kay is a fellow of St John’s College, Oxford. He was the first dean of Oxford’s Saïd Business School and has held chairs at London Business School, the University of Oxford, and the London School of Economics and director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.In his conversation with Martin Reeves, chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Kay discusses the essence of the modern corporation, the changing relationship of capital and labour, the gap between the our historic concept of the corporation and the current reality and the forces that have and will further shape the corporation including sustainability, geopolitics, and technology.Key topics discussed: 01:56 | The essence of a 21st century corporation05:53 | The changing roles of workers and capital12:26 | Limits to corporate scale16:00 | Forces that will shape the future of corporations sustainability, geopolitics, technology21:50 | The impact of AI on the nature of the corporation24:12 | Implications for managersAdditional inspirations from John Kay:Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers (W.W. Norton & Company, 2020)The Long and the Short of It: A guide to finance and investment for normally intelligent people who aren’t in the industry (IPS - Profile Books, 2016)Other People's Money: The Real Business of Finance (PublicAffairs, 2015)Obliquity: Why Our Goals Are Best Achieved Indirectly (Profile Books GB, 2011)