The Learning Corner by Precursor

This week on The Learning Corner by Precursor, Mia and Charles dive into three major topics shaping the future of AI, startups, and software economics: Taco Bell’s Voice AI Troubles: A WSJ piece reveals just how glitchy the chain’s drive-thru AI rollout has been—and why they’re rethinking it entirely. Charles shares why these failures might actually be a good sign of progress and what’s at stake when AI misfires in higher-risk industries like healthcare and finance. The Myth of “Non-Consensus” Investing: A provocative thread from Martin Casado questions whether early-stage investors are placing too much faith in being contrarian. Is alpha really found in non-consensus bets—or does follow-on capital always chase what’s hot? The Software Margin Cliff: A brilliant Substack from Sam Schillace suggests that AI is driving software economics off a cliff. As inference costs grow and traditional SaaS margins shrink, the industry may look more like manufacturing than the creative playground it used to be. Taco Bell Rethinks Future of Voice AI at the Drive-Through (WSJ) Martin Casado on Non-Consensus Investing (X) Sam Schillace: Has the economics of software run off a cliff with AI? (Substack) (0:18) Introduction to the Learning Corner podcast (0:48) Taco Bell's bumpy rollout of voice AI and its broader implications (3:19) AI in healthcare, fintech, and the future of engineering (6:09) The nuances of contrarian and nonconsensus investing (10:09) Consensus in later-stage investing (12:46) Sam Schillis on AI's impact on software economics and changing business models (18:36) Closing remarks and thank yous

We kick off the episode by discussing Rebecca Kaden’s essay, “Hire the Experimenters”, which argues that speed, adaptability, and creative risk-taking are more valuable than traditional credentials in today’s AI-driven startup world. We explore how this mindset shift is reshaping what “great hiring” looks like for early teams — and whether that flexibility can translate into long-term defensibility. Then we break down the MIT report on generative AI deployment across enterprise — and the not-so-great news that 95% of pilots are failing. Charles shares his opinion that these "failures" are signs of future success. Finally, we look at Peter Walker’s data-packed breakdown of bubble-era valuations reappearing at Seed and Series A. With median valuations at the 99th percentile soaring past $160M for Seed and $700M+ for Series A, we ask: what does this mean for startups trying to raise now, and how do you tell signal from noise? Hire the Experimenters MIT report: 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing Startup valuations: A 2021 bubble revival? | Peter Walker on LinkedIn (0:00) Industry trends and technology adoption overview (0:11) Introduction and hosts (0:41) Hiring experimenters and new moats in business (1:40) AI investing insights with Charles Hudson (4:18) Navigating high-capital environments and startup paths (8:00) Startup creation strategies and generative AI deployments (10:31) AI resource allocation and vendor solutions (15:28) Startup valuations and investment trends (19:13) Entry prices, VC competition, and closing remarks

Discover why founding engineers are now the hottest talent in Silicon Valley, with expectations skyrocketing in the AI era. Unpack the regulatory challenges facing AI therapy chatbots and the fine line between support and licensing. Dive into the world of venture capital hiring, revealing common pitfalls and innovative strategies that could make or break future partnerships. The conversation covers the ethical responsibilities of technology builders and the competitive landscape of recruitment in a rapidly evolving market.

Explore the clash of startup modalities in Silicon Valley, where speed often trumps contrarian ideas, despite investors claiming otherwise. Delve into the intriguing dynamics of venture capital, revealing how frequent co-investing challenges the notion of independent thought among VCs. Plus, meet the wave of ambitious 20-somethings flooding San Francisco to launch AI startups, drawing parallels to past tech booms while highlighting modern marketing strategies and intense work cultures. It's a fascinating look at the new generation of entrepreneurs!

This week on The Learning Corner, we dive into three sharp pieces exploring the evolving shape of venture. We kick off with Elad Gil’s take on why AI markets are finally gaining clarity, with key winners emerging across foundational models, code, legal, and customer experience. We ask: can new entrants still break through if they’re not one of the early, well-capitalized names? Next, we unpack Auren Hoffman’s argument that data businesses, while solid, often aren’t built for venture scale. As more investors rethink their appetite for pure-play DaaS models, we explore where data companies can still attract VC interest, especially as AI blurs the line between tooling and infrastructure. Lastly, we discuss Tomasz Tunguz’s piece on why seed rounds are getting larger even as startups shrink. From inflated pre-seed valuations to AI-powered team efficiency, we reflect on the new expectations being placed on early-stage companies and where those pressures might lead next. AI Market Clarity (Elad Gil) Data is Actually Not a Great VC-Backed Business (Auren Hoffman) Why Seed Rounds Are Growing as Startups Shrink (Tomasz Tunguz) (0:00) Introduction and welcome (0:41) AI markets ripe for disruption and impact of not being a big-name AI fund (1:30) Conviction in capital and customer markets (3:11) Portfolio company conflicts in venture capital (5:22) Emerging markets, challenges in AI, and data businesses in venture capital (10:05) Challenges and successes in data business scalability and market trust (13:18) Seed rounds: growth, driving forces, and expectations (17:18) Benefits and challenges of larger seed rounds (18:41) Closing remarks and gratitude

This week on The Learning Corner, we dive into the evolving reality of seed-stage venture capital. We kick things off with takeaways from the Superclusters podcast, where the team at Screendoor shares what LPs are really looking for in emerging fund managers today. Charles reflects on how the role of a fund manager shifts as firms scale, and what skills matter most beyond just investing. Next, we unpack a thoughtful post by Halfdays founder Ariana Ferwerda on how founders should approach choosing investors. We discuss the subtle red flags that surface post-term sheet and what questions can help founders protect their long-term vision. Finally, we break down Rob Go’s post on the existential moment facing seed VC, exploring whether this is just a temporary reset or a long-term shift in how early-stage investing works. Whether you’re a founder navigating early fundraising or a VC trying to adapt in a changing market, this episode offers timely insight from both sides of the table. Should VCs Scale? | El Pack w/ Screendoor (Superclusters) The People Behind the Capital (Ariana Ferwerda, Over and Out Substack) A Crisis Moment for Seed VC (Rob Go, NextView) (0:00) Introduction and Welcome by Charles Hudson and Mia Farnham (0:54) Evolution of venture capital role and the three-part job of running a venture fund (6:51) Evaluating fund managers, LP-GP relationships, and choosing the right investors (15:46) Handling disruptive investors and pitch meeting approaches (18:54) Rob Go's insights on the future of seed VC and venture capital concentration (23:16) Potential winners in venture capital and alpha ratios (24:56) Closing remarks and thank yous

In this episode of The Learning Corner, Mia Farnham and Charles Hudson dig into three big conversations lighting up the venture world: 🔥 First, we break down the Windsurf “Blitzhire” saga—why a $3B OpenAI deal fell apart, how Google swooped in with a $2.4B licensing play, and what this trend of acqui-hire-meets-IP deals means for the future of AI M&A. 💭 Then, we turn to Sergio Rodenzuela’s recent post demystifying how VC really works for early founders—from fundraising realities to the quiet pivots firms make behind the scenes. 🎙️ And finally, we reflect on Jared Hecht’s wild early fundraising tales from the GroupMe days, what advantages and blunders can occur when you operate fast and loose. It’s a sharp, fast-paced episode packed with founder lessons, venture trends, and hot takes on where the industry is heading. The Blitzhire Acquisition – the Windsurf Saga and its Impact The Blitzhire Acquisition Sergio’s Demystifying of VC I want to demystify VC a bit, since a lot of founders seem surprised when I tell them these things Founder Learnings – GroupMe Story Sequoia Wants It Hard (0:00) Introduction to The Learning Corner (0:39) The Windsurf acquisition and AI industry dynamics (3:01) Investor returns, regulatory concerns, and employee outcomes (5:14) Cognition's acquisition and AI research evolution (10:33) Transparency and feedback in VC-founder relationships (13:02) Delivering actionable feedback and investment communication (16:57) Fundraising insights from Jared Hecht (19:03) The nuances of signaling interest in fundraising (20:16) Speed and clarity in investment decisions (21:20) Investor communication and misconceptions

Welcome back to The Learning Corner by Precursor, hosted by Mia Farnham and Charles Hudson. After a quick break for the Fourth of July, we’re back with a jam-packed episode covering some of the most thought-provoking conversations in early-stage venture. In this episode: We explore the concept of the adopting parent investor, how VCs can step into existing board relationships with thoughtfulness, transparency, and full commitment, based on Micah Rosenbloom’s recent reflection on partnering with founders after transitions. We unpack a dense and valuable discussion from The Peel between Samir Kaji and Turner Novak on fundraising, secondary dynamics, and the impact AI is having on how GPs and allocators think about portfolio construction today. We break down a sharp framework from Emergence Capital on pricing AI software. From labor budget shifts to outcome-based pricing and managing LLM costs, we dig into what’s changing,and what founders need to watch out for. The Art of Being an Adopting Parent (Investor) How to Raise a VC Fund Today, How AI is Changing Private Markets Evaluating AI Pricing Models (0:00) Introduction and welcome (0:46) Precursor Ventures' pre seed boot camp announcement & Importance of nontransactional interactions (1:46) Eric Paley’s new role and board transitions (5:32) Increased secondaries and early board exits (9:21) The Peel featuring Samir Kaji and Allocate on AI knowledge for LPs (15:03) AI investments: Impact of entry price and valuations (16:51) AI product pricing discussions and challenges (20:02) Current state of AI product pricing models (21:09) AI product pricing generalizations and underpricing issues (22:31) ChatGPT and educating customers on AI pricing (23:27) Closing remarks and thank yous

In this week’s episode of The Learning Corner, Mia Farnham and Charles Hudson dive into two thought-provoking pieces on modern venture capital and founder decision-making under pressure. First, we unpack Uncapped’s interview with Josh Kopelman of First Round Capital. From the “Blackstoneification of Venture” to his tongue-in-cheek “Venture Arrogance Score,” Kopelman challenges conventional thinking around fund scale, relevance, and value creation. We also touch on secondaries, post-mortems, and what it means to run a venture firm like an operating company. Then we turn to a sharp LinkedIn post by Rohit Mittal on the tough calls founders must make when stuck between raising at a down round or selling. He argues that “exploring options” often leads to nowhere—and that choosing a path with conviction is more important than ever. Charles shares real-world insights on dual-track processes, founder psychology, and how investors can best support teams facing runway crunches. How To Make Money in Venture | Josh Kopelman, Co-Founder of First Round Capital Fundraising OR Seeking an Acquisition | Rohit Mittal (0:00) Introduction to the podcast and episode (1:18) Venture capital's relevancy and differentiation strategies (3:45) Portfolio construction and fund thesis balance (4:56) Non-investing partners and decision-making processes (6:02) The importance of capturing real-time venture reflections (7:33) Venture capital's hot hand fallacy and success association (10:02) Evaluating venture graduation rates and outlier companies (13:14) The role of secondaries in venture capital (15:32) Founder dilemmas: Down rounds vs. acquisition (18:36) Episode closing remarks

This week on The Learning Corner by Precursor: Reflections from Invest Like the Best’s episode featuring Bill Gurley. From zombie unicorns to misaligned fund incentives, Gurley addresses the long arc of staying private and the system-wide pressures created by illiquidity, consensus strategies, and overcapitalization. We dig into Alex Lazarow’s post on how Chime borrowed elements from international fintech giants like Nubank and Toss and what it means to apply lessons from one market to another. What makes geo-arbitrage work, and why hasn’t live commerce, which has seen major success in China, taken off in the U.S.? Finally, we dive into Tomasz Tunguz’s prediction that acquihires are poised for a resurgence. With seed deal volume spiking post-2021 but Series A slots staying flat, we explore how structural pressure is creating an environment ripe for sub-$20M talent buys, especially in AI. Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy feat. Bill Gurley Alex Lazarow, 99%Tech What The World Taught Me About Chime Tomasz Tunguz, Theory Ventures The Coming Wave of Acquihires (0:00) Introduction to the episode and topic of starting companies outside the current trend (0:49) Discussion on Bill Gurley's insights and the state of venture capital (2:10) Investing challenges in high valuation startups (4:10) AI's influence on startup investments (6:18) Attention dynamics for non-AI startups (7:14) Venture capital supply, demand, and future returns (10:20) Alex Lazaro's insights on Chime and geo arbitrage (13:17) Building consumer solutions and Precursor Ventures portfolio examples (15:31) Seed boom, acquihires, and managing non-graduating companies (18:02) Fair pricing and the role of acquihires in venture capital (19:42) Closing remarks