The Learning Corner by Precursor

We kick things off with a short but sharp post from Ben Choi reminding us that “VC is hard”—not just because of performance pressure, but because navigating fund dynamics and relationships is a game in itself. Then we dive into a provocative piece by Stefano Bernardi questioning the obsession with concentrated funds, and unpack why diversification often outperforms even the best instincts. Finally, we revisit the Cluely hype cycle, with CEO Roy Lee reflecting on the downside of viral traction and what happens when the market stops being impressed. VC is Hard (Ben Choi, Next Legacy) Should You Build a Concentrated Fund? (Stefano Bernardi, Unruly Capital) Cluely's Roy Lee Hints That Viral Hype is Not Enough (TechCrunch) (0:00) Introduction to fast growth and staying in venture capital (4:39) Concentrated funds vs. diversification in venture capital (12:11) Cluely's marketing and growth strategy (15:45) Rapid information sharing effects on startups

This week on The Learning Corner, Mia and Charles break down four of the most thought-provoking reads shaping the tech and venture ecosystem right now: • Unsafe SAFEs in the Age of AI: Jason Lemkin calls out a troubling new trend where founders in hyped AI deals walk away with investor cash—without building a thing. • 15 Charts That Explain How Tech and Venture Are Changing in 2025: Ruben Dominguez drops a chart-heavy update covering everything from AI app churn to why so many junior VCs leave the industry. • Oreo-maker Mondelez is using GenAI to slash marketing costs: Mondelez teams up with Publicis and Accenture to roll out a $40M AI tool, cutting costs—and possibly creativity—in CPG advertising. • Sequoia Names New Co-Leads as Roelof Botha Steps Down: With Roelof Botha stepping down, Sequoia is signaling a new chapter Unsafe SAFEs in the Age of AI 15 Charts That Explain How Tech and Venture Are Changing in 2025 Oreo-maker Mondelez is using GenAI to slash marketing costs Sequoia Names New Co-Leads as Roelof Botha Steps Down (0:00) Governance tension and founder investments in early-stage companies (1:31) Convertible notes vs SAFEs in venture funding (4:24) Assessing financial management in startups (6:49) Tech and venture trends for 2025 by Ruben Dominguez (10:57) Venture capital career insights and progression challenges (14:48) Sponsor: Mondelez's investment in AI for advertising (17:39) AI's influence on consulting and change management (19:36) Sequoia's leadership changes and internal dynamics (21:13) Closing remarks and thank yous

First up, we dive into “Beyond True or False: Teaching Students to Interrogate AI Unreliability”, a Substack by Nick Potkalitsky, which proposes a new framework—borrowed from literary theory—for teaching students to critically evaluate AI-generated content. We discuss how this lens can help people move beyond simple trust/distrust binaries and become better co-creators with AI. Then, we explore “Is AI the New Shadow Bank? (Yes…)”, a piece that draws parallels between today’s AI economy and the pre-2008 shadow banking system. Instead of mortgage-backed securities, today’s collateral is GPU access, compute contracts, and foundation models—and we ask: is the real innovation the credit system AI is built on? Beyond True or False: Teaching Students to Interrogate AI Unreliability Is AI the New Shadow Bank? (Yes…) (0:00) Introduction and welcome (0:30) Article summary: Teaching students about AI unreliability and critical thinking (4:50) Potential solutions for AI reliability and Charles Hudson's AI tool experience (9:19) Article summary: AI as a financial entity and related investment risks (15:13) Closing remarks and thank you to listeners

We’re digging into three thought-provoking topics shaping the current startup and investing landscape: 🧼 Coterie’s $650M Exit & the Return of DTC M&A – We break down Brian Sugar’s “One Brand is Luck, Two is Strategy,” and why pure-play DTC brands with strong economics and customer devotion are back on the radar for modern acquirers. ⚡️ Iteration Speed & the Path to Series A – Hadley Harris of Eniac Ventures shares why iteration speed is the best predictor of Series A readiness, and how founders can prioritize feedback loops and kill ideas quickly to increase their odds. 💸 Secondaries in Term Sheets – A recent Axios note suggests Menlo Ventures is now pre-negotiating secondary sale conditions into early-stage term sheets. We unpack what this means, why it matters, and whether this becomes a new norm. One Brand Is Luck. Two Is Strategy. How to double your chances of raising a Series A | Hadley Harris on LinkedIn Axios Pro Rata – Menlo Ventures reportedly outlines secondaries in term sheets (0:13) Introduction and welcome (0:51) Article by Brian Sugar on brand acquisitions and thoughts on CPG brands (4:52) Investor expectations, retail strategies, and comparison to healthcare contracts (8:06) LinkedIn post by Hadley Harris on iteration speed and its importance (14:57) Menlo's stance on secondary shares and speculation on the future of secondary markets (20:22) Closing remarks and farewell

This week on The Learning Corner, Mia and Charles discuss Goldman Sachs’ acquisition of Industry Ventures and what it signals for the venture ecosystem, Maria Gonzalez Blanch’s take on “brain obesity” in the age of AI, and a recent post from Erica Wenger about friends investing in friends. We break down what it means for community, trust, and evolving norms in tech. Goldman Sachs agrees to acquire $7 billion VC firm Industry Ventures — CNBC The New Obesity Epidemic: Brain Obesity — Maria Gonzalez Blanch, Crescent Ridge Let Friends Invest in Their Companies — Erica Wenger, Park Rangers Capital (0:00) Introduction and Entrepreneur Capital Choices (0:37) Goldman Sachs and Industry Ventures Deal (2:12) Venture Secondaries and Fund Acquisitions (6:31) Brain Obesity and AI in Life and Work (10:32) AI Assistants and Synthesizing Thoughts (13:10) AI for Learning and Problem-Solving (16:17) Venture Ecosystem Insights and Pre-seed Funding (20:08) Changes and Dynamics in the Venture Industry (21:52) Media Flywheels and First-time Founder Priorities

In this week’s episode of The Learning Corner by Precursor, Mia and Charles explore three themes shaping today’s startup and VC landscape: The Three Lanes of Modern Venture – What type of fund are you really building? John Vrionis lays out three distinct approaches VCs are taking today. When Great People Leave – How do strong leaders navigate inevitable departures? Lessons from Taps Notes on leadership, transitions, and grace. The Solo Founder Debate – If solo founders can succeed, why don’t more VCs back them? Itamar Novick shares thoughts on survivorship bias and what makes solo builders special. Tune in for a thoughtful discussion on the shifting expectations of investors, how to support teams through change, and why the solo founder conversation is evolving fast. Only Three Ways to Play Venture When Great People Leave VCs Not Supporting Solo Founders (Even Though They Should) (0:13) Introduction and welcome (0:46) LinkedIn post by John Varonis on venture strategies (1:50) Analysis of venture strategies and current challenges for fund managers (4:39) Handling team departures with grace and keeping talent engaged (13:05) Itamar Novik's LinkedIn post on solo founders and their challenges (16:48) Impact of AI tools on solo founders and cofounder decisions (18:49) Closing remarks and thanks

We start with a Fortune article on how founders are using “creative accounting” to boost ARR, once the gold standard for SaaS success and now a much murkier metric in the AI era. What used to be a reliable sign of recurring revenue has drifted into “vibe revenue,” and we talk about what that means for investors and founders trying to benchmark growth. Next, we dive into Jasmine Sun’s blog on Silicon Valley’s cultural lexicon, “high agency,” “NPCs,” “996,” “taste,” and “decel/doomer.” These memes reflect deeper anxieties about meaning, ambition, and the pressure to win in today’s AI-driven world. We share our reactions to which of these terms resonate most, and what they say about tech culture right now. Finally, we turn to the Wall Street Journal’s coverage of how debt is fueling the AI boom. With Oracle, CoreWeave, and others leveraging massive loans to secure infrastructure and power, we discuss whether this strategy is a smart bet on future demand or a dangerous setup for a bubble if growth slows. ​​[Founders are using creative accounting to boost lofty ‘ARR’—the hottest startup metric in Silicon Valley | Fortune] (https://fortune.com/2025/09/28/how-is-arr-calculated-startups-venture/) [Are you high-agency or an NPC? | Jasmine Sun] (https://jasmi.news/p/dictionary?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web) [Debt Is Fueling the Next Wave of the AI Boom | Wall Street Journal] (https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/debt-is-fueling-the-next-wave-of-the-ai-boom-278d0e04?st=KWeTHZ&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink) (0:00) Introduction and founder work habits (0:46) ARR murkiness and AI gold rush (2:20) Inflated ARR and valuation impacts (5:19) Due diligence challenges and competitive deals (7:09) AI churn rates and gross margins comparison (8:36) Investor strategies and fraud speculation (9:30) Key cultural terms and tech landscape seriousness (12:09) Nine nine six work culture and San Francisco living (16:21) Intense work periods and fear of underclass (18:48) Debt's role in AI growth and tech bubble concerns (22:04) Credit dynamics, data center risks, and venture disconnect

We explore Jerry Neumann's "AI Will Not Make You Rich," which argues that transformative technologies like AI may not deliver lasting competitive advantages, using economist Carlota Perez's tech wave framework to examine whether we're in the "frenzy" or "irruption" stage of AI development. Next, we dive into the curious disconnect in consumer tech markets, where VC funding has dropped from 15% to 5% of venture dollars despite consumer companies significantly outperforming the Nasdaq-100. Charles discusses why Precursor remains bullish on out-of-favor sectors and whether AI-powered personalization could revive investor interest in consumer tech. Finally, we examine Nvidia's $100 billion investment in OpenAI and what this reveals about the interconnected web between chip makers, data centers, and AI companies. AI Will Not Make You Rich Consumer Businesses Are Stronger than Ever… Where Are the Investors? Nvidia to Invest $100 Billion in OpenAI (0:00) Introduction and frenzy stage in tech investment (0:48) AI and tech waves (2:02) AI's potential value capture and software pricing impact (5:21) Consumer tech investments and why VCs stay away (10:09) AI-driven personalization in consumer tech and NVIDIA's investment in OpenAI (15:22) Tech giants' relationships and AI infrastructure's future

This week on The Learning Corner, Mia and Charles explore three compelling venture capital topics: (1) Micah Rosenbloom's comparison of VCs to "cockroaches" and why fund consolidation remains unlikely despite market pressures, (2) the emerging trend of software engineers being paid to fix AI-generated "vibe-coded" projects that need human expertise to become functional, and (3) new Pitchbook data revealing how serial founders maintain a significant 2-3x fundraising advantage over first-time entrepreneurs in today's cautious investment climate. 1. VCs Are Cockroaches By Micah Rosenbloom at Founder Collective 2. The Software Engineers Paid to Fix Vibe Coded Messes By Emanuel Maiberg at 404 Media 3. Why Serial Founders Still Have a Fundraising Edge Over First-Timers By Jacob Robbins at Pitchbook (0:00) Introduction and Venture industry feedback loop (0:43) LinkedIn post and VC resilience discussion (4:08) Merging and acquiring venture firms and first fund performance (8:02) Article on vibe coding, software engineers, and AI impact (14:09) PitchBook piece on serial founders and competitive dynamics in venture (18:02) Portfolio success and evaluating second time founders (19:43) Strengths and weaknesses of different founder profiles (20:10) Closing remarks and farewell

First, we dive into “We Have Met the Enemy and He Is Us” by Euclid Ventures, which explores how venture capital is drifting from its roots as a market for independent thinkers. Next up is “The AI Productivity Paradox” from Sequoia’s Inference, which explores why widespread AI adoption hasn’t translated into real productivity gains. Lastly, we break down the recent Reuters story about Anthropic’s $1.5 billion settlement in a landmark author copyright case. Soon after we recorded, the Judge stepped in and rejected the settlement. Articles Discussed We Have Met the Enemy and He Is UsEuclid Ventures explores the rise of consensus-driven investing in venture capital and its impact on innovation. The AI Productivity Paradox: High Adoption, Low TransformationSequoia’s Inference dives into why AI tools are widely adopted but haven’t yet translated into meaningful productivity gains. Anthropic Agrees to Pay $1.5 Billion to Settle Author Class ActionReuters reports on a landmark copyright settlement in the AI space, raising big questions around fair use and model training. (0:00) Introduction and episode overview (0:43) Big funds' impact on seed stage and venture capital concentration (3:38) Advice for emerging fund managers (5:20) Sequoia's AI productivity paradox and enterprise AI transformation challenges (10:58) Anthropic's author class action and fair use debate in AI (16:13) Prioritizing for founders in creative spaces (17:34) Closing remarks and thank yous