The Road to Autonomy

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Walt’s recent trip to San Francisco, where he observed more aggressive driving from Waymo vehicles and spotted a FasTrak transponder—hinting that the great highway unlock is imminent.In the markets, Aurora and Lyft reported earnings, with Aurora’s market cap soaring to $17 billion—triple Lyft’s $5 billion. On its earnings call, Aurora emphasized its driver-out readiness and their hardware kit approach, mirroring Kodiak’s SensorPods. If hardware kits are the future of autonomy, power could shift from OEMs to autonomous driving developers, opening new market opportunities and validating Kodiak’s OEM-agnostic strategy.And then there’s NVIDIA. What if they acquired an autonomous driving developer and vertically integrated? How would the market respond? What would it mean for chip sales? As fragmentation grows in the autonomous vehicle market, so does Uber’s advantage. Opportunity abounds.Episode Chapters0:00 Walt’s San Francisco Trip1:54 Hesai LiDAR6:19 Waymo’s More Assertive Driving7:37 Should we be Concerned about Zoox?13:08 Aurora Earnings16:43 Autonomous Driving Hardware Kits21:43 Should NVIDIA Vertically Integrate an Autonomous Driving Stack?26:24 Nuro’s Licensing Opportunity30:29 Uber’s Next Autonomy Partner—May Mobility?33:50 Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Management & Financing38:00 DoorDash’s Autonomous Delivery Ambitions40:57 Next WeekRecorded on Saturday, February 15, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Shahrukh Kazmi, Chief Product Officer, Volvo Autonomous Solutions joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the company’s comprehensive approach to building an autonomous transport-as-a-service business. Volvo is leveraging its decades of trucking expertise to develop a new business model that is built around an autonomous truck. Instead of selling the truck, Volvo Autonomous Solutions is going to own the asset and operate the autonomous transport-as-a-service business. This approach will allow Volvo Autonomous Solutions to maintain control over the ecosystem, understand customer pain points directly, and ensure safety standards are met consistently. With control, Volvo Autonomous Solutions is poised to scale quickly. Recorded on Thursday, January 30, 2025Episode Chapters0:00 Volvo Autonomous Solutions Approach to Autonomous Trucking4:46 Volvo’s VNL Platform7:27 Virtual Drivers11:04 Aurora Partnership13:57 Transport-as-a-Service19:24 VNL Autonomous Platform30:20 Mining and Quarries35:47 Competitive Advantages36:46 Building For The Future--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk break down Uber’s Q4 earnings, highlighting their five keys for success in autonomy: regulation, superhuman safety, cost-effective hardware, fleet management, and high utilization. They also discuss Waymo’s continued expansion and Ford’s willingness to license an SAE Level 4 autonomous system.With Uber scaling fleet operations and Foxconn emerging as a potential Nissan partner, could a Foxconn-Nissan collaboration lead to licensing an autonomous driving system, selling vehicles to a REIT, and deploying them on Uber’s network? Watch to gather Grayson and Walter’s insights into the emerging world of autonomous vehicle licensing.Episode Chapters0:00 Traditional Automotive’s Struggles with Software and Innovation 5:43 Uber Q4 2024 Earnings8:00 Autonomous Vehicle REIT13:20 Uber’s Fleet Inventory 17:15 Uber’s Five Keys for Autonomous Vehicle Success 32:36 Uber and Waymo’s Historical Relationship 34:06 Waymo Fleet Expansion 37:33 Foxconn 41:09 Ford to License an Autonomous Driving System?43:14 Waabi49:27 Next WeekRecorded on Thursday, February 6, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Xiaodi Hou, Founder & CEO of Bot Auto joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how DeepSeek is transforming AI development and its potential impact on autonomous driving.Dr. Hou views DeepSeek as an engineering breakthrough rather than a scientific one—challenging traditional approaches to AI model development. Unlike many companies in the field, DeepSeek has shown that powerful models can be created by optimizing systems and creatively managing resource constraints.There are strong parallels between DeepSeek’s approach and Bot Auto’s strategy of being scrappy and cost-effective. This “DeepSeek moment” could mark a turning point for autonomous driving, where commercialization and efficiency become the primary drivers of technological advancement.Recorded on Monday, February 3, 2025Episode Chapters0:00 DeepSeek9:35 Resources Needed to Build an Autonomous Driving Model (Pre-DeepSeek)15:44 Open-Source LLMs23:54 Prioritization 26:08 Building the Bot Auto Autonomous Driving Model33:37 Miles Driven and Autonomous Driving Models--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discussed Tesla’s Q4 earnings, Waymo’s road trip and Kodiak’s historical announcement. It was Tesla this week that captured investors attention as Elon Musk spoke at length about Tesla’s robotaxi plans, licensing FSD and their plans to launch an Airbnb like service for autonomy. Will Tesla really hit the June 2025 timeline for unsupervised autonomy in Austin, Texas? Anything is possible, but the precedent is that the launch will be delayed, along with a potential nationwide expansion in 2026. Then there is the potential to license FSD (Full Self-Driving), will Tesla really do it and what will the impact be on the global auto industry? As Tesla works towards full autonomy (unsupervised), Waymo continues to expand. This week Waymo announced that they are taking roadtrips to 10+ markets beginning with San Diego and Las Vegas this year, along with opening the Atlanta market to employees. Additionally, Waymo began offering highway service to employees in Los Angeles.Then there is Kodiak, which made history this week, becoming the first company to sell an autonomous truck to a third party—Atlas Energy. The episode concludes with discussion of Zoox’s challenges in the competitive autonomous vehicle market, particularly in Las Vegas and San Francisco.Episode Chapters0:00 Secretary Sean Duffy2:59 Washington Post: If Self-Driving Cars are Safer than the Alternative, What’s to Lose?7:02 Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings 9:28 FSD Unsupervised Launch13:58 Capital Markets & Analysts 16:48 LiDAR Narrative 21:30 Licensing Tesla FSD26:20 FSD is Coming to Semi28:51 Kodiak Makes History 31:28 Tesla Cortex Training Cluster32:32 Waymo Goes Fully Autonomous on LA Freeways (Employees Only)35:21 Waymo Opens Atlanta to Employees37:29 Waymo’s 10 City Road Trip41:06 Zoox45:06 Super Bowl46:09 Next WeekRecorded on Thursday, January 30, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Pete Bigelow, Senior Reporter, Automotive News and Sergey Litvinenko, Co-Founder & CEO of Koop joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the insurance challenges surrounding SAE Level 3 vehicles and how the insurance requirements will change with higher levels of automation. In this in-depth discussion, Grayson, Pete and Sergey explore the complex landscape of Level 3 semi-autonomous vehicles and their associated liability challenges. The conversation delves into why major automakers such as GM and Ford have retreated from developing full self-driving systems to instead focus on driver assistance systems. In the long-term, this could prove to be a costly mistake.During the discussion they also spoke about the emerging complexities of insuring robotaxis in Las Vegas and how the “Vegas risk” could impact underwriting. Recorded on Wednesday, January 22, 2025Episode Chapters0:00 Scaling Level 36:10 Not All Level 3 Systems are Equal8:43 Underwriting Level 312:45 In-Cabin Monitoring / Driver Responsibility15:33 Who’s Responsible in the Event of a Crash?17:11 Can Consumers Tell a Level 2 system from a Level 3 system?22:08 Why Would an OEM Invest in Level 3?26:55 Level 4 Licensing Liability30:09 Foldable Wheel33:30 Open Container in Robotaxis41:10 Robotaxi Liability44:33 National Autonomous Vehicle Framework47:44 Autonomy Market Outlook--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk explored the potential impacts of President Trump's administration on the autonomous vehicle and truck industries. With tensions brewing between labor interests and technology companies, the hosts analyzed who might ultimately gain ground from a policy perspective.At Davos, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said autonomous vehicle technology will be ready for primetime within two years, but not commercially viable for a decade—potentially a strategic move to control the autonomy narrative ahead of their February 5th earnings report. Is this a hedge or a genuine assessment of the autonomous vehicle landscape? Only time will tell.Episode Chapters0:00 Trump's Back2:38 Autonomous Vehicle Policy and Who Matters8:17 Elon vs O'Brien and The Teamsters12:38 U.S. vs China17:57 Inceptio Technology IPO22:55 Dara Khosrowshahi AV Comments at Davos28:25 Tesla FSD Two Lane Highway Exit31:21 Rising Insurance Costs for Uber in LA33:44 Waymo Growth Projections37:21 Next WeekRecorded on Saturday, January 23, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Peter Vaughan Schmidt, CEO, Torc joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how Torc is preparing to launch commercial operations in Texas.Torc’s strategic relocation from Albuquerque to Fort Worth, Texas was a move that aligned with changing market dynamics. The regulatory environment combined with a growing demand for freight movement, makes Texas the ideal market to launch s commercial autonomous trucking operations.Looking ahead to 2027, Torc plans to launch commercial autonomous trucking operations in Texas. When the service is launched, customers will purchase autonomous-ready Cascadias from Freightliner, own the asset and subscribe to Torc’s virtual driver service.Recorded on Tuesday, January 14, 2025Episode Chapters0:00 Torc Moves from Albuquerque to Texas4:37 Autonomous-Ready Cascadias8:57 Preparing for Driver-Out Operations11:01 Torc’s Perception System12:22 From a Robotics Stack to an AI Stack15:26 Autonomous Truck Policy17:08 AI’s Is Accelerating Torc’s Commercial Launch20:32 Scaling Commercial Operations22:39 Buying an Autonomous Truck Powered by Torc24:24 Torc Business Model30:07 Autonomous Truck Maintenance34:09 Capital Allocation Strategy37:21 Outside Capital39:44 Additional OEMs41:05 Waymo43:29 Autonomous Trucking Market45:17 Torc Outlook--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk headed to Washington, D.C. where they attended an event held by The Council for Economic Resilience that focused on the future of autonomous vehicle and truck policy. With President Trump being sworn into office next week, there is an opportunity to usher in the golden age of autonomy. To usher in the golden age of autonomy, there has to be a national autonomous vehicle framework that includes trucks weighing over 10,001 pounds. Grayson and Walt discuss what it might take for that to become a reality and the role that China could potentially play in accelerating that effort. Episode Chapters0:00 The Council for Economic Resilience DC Event2:05 Congressman Duffy’s Transportation Secretary Confirmation Hearing 4:04 Optimism in DC 9:09 Rising Insurance Costs11:01 The NYC Unlock for Autonomous Vehicles 14:27 Autonomy Politics 22:10 TikTok / Trump Inauguration25:16 Chinese Autonomous Vehicles in the U.S. 30:03 Zeekr: Waymo’s Unforced Error33:41 Does Waymo Need more OEM partners?35:49 Pony AI39:01 Next WeekRecorded on Saturday, January 19, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

David Welch, Detroit Bureau Chief, Bloomberg joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how Waymo won the robotaxi race as Detroit walked away two times.There are major shifts happening in the autonomous vehicle industry as Waymo scales up operations and Tesla prepares to introduce the Cybercab. At CES last week, Jensen Huang, Co-founder & CEO of NVIDIA highlighted autonomous vehicles multi-trillion dollar potential.As Waymo and Tesla have accelerated, traditional automakers have largely abandoned their in-house autonomous vehicle development programs. Ford shutdown Argo AI and GM shutdown Cruise, potentially opening the door for companies such as Wayve and Nuro that are pursuing a licensing model. Then there is May Mobility which is emerging as an interesting player in the autonomous vehicle industry, with strong relationships Toyota and NTT, along a planned expansion with Lyft in Atlanta. By the end of 2025, the robotaxi market could look completely different.Recorded on Tuesday, January 7, 2025Episode Chapters0:00 2025 Autonomy Market Outlook2:53 Did GM Pull the Plug on Cruise Too Soon?9:23 Zoox IPO?10:52 Could Amazon Integrate Zoox into Prime?12:03 Waymo 2025 Outlook14:21 Does Uber Need a Fragmented Market to Win in Robotaxis?15:27 Rename Robotaxis, America Taxis17:30 Waymo in NYC?20:40 Will a National Autonomous Vehicle Framework Spur Investments?23:31 May Mobility28:55 Tesla Robotaxi33:30 Vision Only35:24 AI37:12 Detroit’s Autonomy Strategy--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.