The Road to Autonomy

Ali Kashani, Co-Founder & Serve Robotics joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how sidewalk delivery robots are transforming the economics and experience of last-mile delivery. Ali shares the origin story of Serve Robotics, which was incubated within Postmates and later spun out of Uber into a publicly traded company. What began as a simple idea, delivering small items with small autonomous robots has grown into a rapidly scaling business operating in cities across the U.S., including Los Angeles, Miami, and Dallas. As Serve Robotics continues to expand, the company is evolving into a full-fledged robotics platform with multiple revenue streams spanning advertising, delivery, licensing, and potentially something even bigger in the future.Episode Chapters0:00 Founding of Serve Robotics2:07 Deliveries4:26 Deploying Sidewalk Robots9:53 Deployment Markets15:11 A Robotics Company19:37 Wing Partnership21:20 Restaurant Deliveries & Packaging27:53 Comparing Gen 2 to Gen 3 Robots29:59 Testing Before Deploying32:37 New Markets33:49 Advertising Business37:33 Growing Delivery Volume39:37 The Evolution of Sidewalk Robots42:07 Key TakeawaysRecorded on Wednesday, May 14, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s recall, Tesla’s most recent NHTSA letter and Sterling Anderson’s surprise move to join GM as EVP & Chief Product Officer.For the first time ever, Waymo had a fleet-wide recall after a series of minor collisions involving stationary objects, a recall that was fixed with a simple over-the-air update. As Waymo updated their vehicles, Tesla was once again under regulatory scrutiny, this time about their upcoming FSD Unsupervised launch in Austin.Could NHTSA’s request for more information, give Elon Musk and Tesla an off-ramp as they work to further develop FSD prior to deploying fully autonomous robotaxis. In an unexpected twist, former Aurora co-founder Sterling Anderson joined GM as EVP & Chief Product Officer. His move to GM signals a potential major strategic shift for GM, especially in the wake of its decision to shutdown Cruise.With Mr. Anderson’s background in autonomy, software-defined vehicles, and hardware integration from his time at Tesla and Aurora, the hire suggests GM may be quietly rebuilding its autonomy strategy. Whether this positions him as a future CEO candidate or simply as the architect of GM’s next-generation vehicle roadmap, it’s a development that we will be following on Autonomy Markets.Episode Chapters0:00 Sterling Anderson Joins GM3:34 The Impact of Sterling’s Departure on Aurora5:53 Uber’s Autonomy Investments7:16 Aurora, a Company in Crisis13:04 Kodiak15:30 Bot Auto17:45 Wayve / Uber Partnership21:58 WeRide’s Hong Kong IPO22:46 Waymo’s Lingering Zeekr Problem25:27 Waymo’s NHTSA Recall27:18 Waymo Road Trips28:47 Is Waymo Expanding Too Quickly?30:10 Could NHTSA Delay Tesla’s June Robotaxi Launch?33:38 Market Perception of Tesla FSD36:29 Unforced Error of The Week38:40 Next WeekRecorded on Thursday, May 15, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

David Welch, Detroit Bureau Chief, Bloomberg joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss Waymo’s growing competitive advantage in the market, Uber’s strategy and the many challenges facing Tesla.Waymo continues to strengthen its market share in the robotaxi sector, recently announcing a strategic partnership with Magna to significantly expand autonomous vehicle manufacturing capabilities. While Uber leverages its robust marketplace platform to drive substantial demand for autonomous rides through key partnerships, Waymo has diversified manufacturing to meet demand.Tesla, despite its ambitions with Full Self-Driving (FSD), faces ongoing technical challenges, including difficulties accurately identifying pedestrians, animals, and school zones, underscore the complexity in deploying fully autonomous vehicles at scale.Simultaneously, the autonomous vehicle industry’s competitive landscape remains fluid, as traditional automakers struggle with limited autonomy programs and unclear strategies. With renewed investor interest, fresh funding rounds, and upcoming commercial deployments, the autonomous mobility market is entering a pivotal phase. Autonomy companies must now navigate strategic decisions concerning scale, partnerships, and profitability.Episode Chapters0:00 Scaling Waymo’s Operations3:58 Tesla FSD5:17 Tesla’s Upcoming Austin Robotaxi Launch7:47 Did GM Pull the Plus on Cruise Too Early?11:33 GM’s Continued Investments in EVs14:48 Software16:35 Licensing Autonomy & OEM Partnerships20:41 Foxconn Contract Manufacturing AVs25:53 Uber’s Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Strategy28:50 Uber / Waymo Relationship34:33 Zoox35:31 Alphabet’s Commitment to Waymo37:28 Merge Waymo One into Uber?39:12 Car Rental Companies40:32 Autonomy as a Business44:52 Key TakeawaysRecorded on Thursday, May 8, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss the abrupt resignation of Aurora Co-Founder Sterling Anderson, why Waymo needs more vehicles and the continued fragmentation of the robotaxi market. Mr. Anderson’s sudden departure sent shockwaves through the industry, raising critical questions about his next move and the potential impact on Aurora’s partnership with Volvo, along with Uber’s reaction. Yet, curiously, none of these questions were raised by analysts on the company’s earnings call, leaving investors and industry insiders to speculate.Meanwhile, Waymo appears to be scaling faster than its fleet can support. With 1,500 vehicles on the road today and another 2,000 expected by next year, the company has yet to activate highway operations, likely due to the increased wait times it would cause in already constrained markets.As Uber doubles down on global autonomous vehicle partnerships, Waymo appears to have cooled on Lyft, potently leaving them at a competitive disadvantage. As Uber aggressively ramps up its global autonomous vehicle partnerships, Waymo appears to have cooled on Lyft, potentially putting Lyft at a growing competitive disadvantage in the evolving autonomy economy.Episode Chapters0:00 On The Road2:03 Sterling Anderson Resigns from Aurora7:55 Autonomous Trucking Revenue Metrics of Success9:39 Waymo’s New Factory12:38 How Many Cars Does Waymo Need in a Market?15:41 Autonomy Markets On The Road in D.C.20:30 Growth of Robotaxis on Uber & Lyft25:48 Is Uber Accelerating the Growth of Chineses AVs in Europe?30:13 What’s Going on at Zoox?34:25 Rivian’s Autonomy Ambitions37:42 Next WeekRecorded on Friday, May 9, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Earl Adams Jr., Vice President for Policy and Regulatory Affairs, Plus joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss how autonomous trucking is poised to transform local communities, economically, socially, and operationally. In Texas, Plus is actively working to deploy fully autonomous trucks in partnership with International by 2027. As part of the preparation for launch, Earl is meeting with community leaders, elected officials and community colleges in an effort to build transparency and trust with the local communities. When autonomous trucks are deployed, they will make our roads safer and they will have a positive economic benefit on society. The economic benefits of autonomous trucking will be felt in local communities as they will strengthening local businesses through increased spending in local communities.Autonomous trucking isn’t just about moving freight, it’s about creating opportunity without debt, while revitalizing communities, one route at a time.Episode Chapters0:00 Autonomous Trucking Policy4:20 Economic Impact of Autonomous Trucking5:58 Public Trust10:51 Community Colleges12:28 Impact on Society17:29 California DMV Autonomous Trucking Rulemaking 22:48 Hours of Service 27:57 Building & Maintaining Trust35:21 Autonomous Trucking Industry 40:35 Key Takeaways Recorded on Wednesday, April 30, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s potential new partnership with Toyota, the launch of Aurora’s driver-out commercial operations and Uber’s continued effort to challenge the autonomy duopoly. On Tuesday, Waymo announced a potential partnership with Toyota to develop personally-owned autonomous vehicles, confirming a business pivot in an effort to counter Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi launch in Austin. Wile Waymo signals a shift in strategy, Aurora launched fully autonomous commercial operations in partnership with Uber Freight.As Uber became Aurora’s first commercial customer, the rideshare side of their business continued to double-down on autonomy, as they further fragmented the autonomy market when they announced a strategic partnership with May Mobility to deploy AVs on the platform.Recorded on Thursday, April 24, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sergey Litvinenko, Co-Founder & CEO, Koop joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the emergence of autonomous vehicle fleets and why the fleet model is becoming the model for scaling autonomous vehicles globally. In the autonomous vehicle market there are new emerging business models for owning and operating the fleets from leasing to REIT-like structures to vertically integrated fleet mangers with each model posing it’s own unique challenges. From insurance requirements to financing to operational complexities, making entering the sector difficult without the right partners. Yet despite these complexities, there are vast opportunities.Episode Chapters0:00 Autonomous Vehicle Fleets5:51 Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Franchises8:30 Individual Fleet Owners 14:42 Personally-Owned Autonomous Vehicles 18:41 Autonomous Driving Developers / OEM Partnerships 22:46 Insuring Autonomous Vehicle Fleets26:51 Bundling Autonomous Vehicle Insurance with Fleet Management 31:33 Rental Car Companies33:25 Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Model Challenges36:40 Future of Autonomous Vehicle FleetsRecorded on Friday, April 25, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo's potential pivot away from HD maps, their 250,000 fully autonomous rides per week milestone, Tesla's pending robotaxi launch and Aurora's long-promised driver-out launch.In a post announcing the milestone on X, Waymo used the term "generalizable Waymo Driver”, potentially hinting that the company may move away from HD maps. Could Waymo be moving towards an end-to-end approach in similar fashion to Tesla?Tesla that is actively preparing to launch their robotaxis in Austin this June. Will they launch in June, or will they delay until July as Elon Musk hinted at on Tesla's Q1 2025 earnings call. When Tesla launches their robotaxi network, the market will change and the question becomes how does Waymo react?For the time being, all eyes are on Aurora, with just days left in April to meet their driver-out launch deadline, anxiety is building as the clock is ticking. The pressure is on to launch fully-autonomous, driver-out operations.Episode Chapters0:00 Waymo 250k Paid Rides a Week1:04 Generalizable Waymo Driver3:12 Highways Coming Soon for Waymo?4:33 Personally-Owned Waymo Vehicles?5:55 Personally-Owned Waymos Impact on Uber & Lyft9:39 Tesla Robotaxi Launch16:59 Tesla vs Waymo Robotaxi Costs18:07 Testing FSD Supervised in Europe19:02 Wayve Expands to Japan22:48 Uber / VW Robotaxi Partnership26:29 Toyota27:46 U.S. DOT Automated Vehicle Framework30:58 Aurora Driver-Out CountdownRecorded on Thursday, April 24, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Autonomy is transforming industries and creating an entirely new economy that we call the autonomy economy™. The Road to Autonomy provides advisory and market intelligence services that helps you better understand the market and stay ahead of what’s coming next. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Christian John, President of TIER IV North America, dives into the world of open-source autonomous driving in this engaging discussion. He highlights TIER IV's innovative approach to scaling modular platforms for everything from robotaxis to buses. The success of their autonomous buses in Japan, especially addressing the aging population and driver shortages, is impressive. John emphasizes the power of collaboration in the sector and explains how open-source software can drive global advancements in autonomy.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Kodiak starting the process to become a publicly traded company, the anxiety leading up to Aurora’s driver-out commercial launch and Lyft’s expansion into Europe through the acquisition of FREENOW.Kodiak has officially filed to go public in a $2.5 billion SPAC deal, backed by a $100 million PIPE and a 100-truck order from Atlas Energy that signals strong market confidence. Aurora’s long-anticipated driver-out commercial launch is drawing closer, with industry watchers counting the days and parsing every signal for an indication of launch. On the platform side of autonomy, Lyft is expanding to the UK and Europe through a $197 million acquisition of FREENOW. Now that Lyft has European operations, there is a path for the company to scale robotaxis on two continents.It appears that Lyft is gearing up to compete with Uber more aggressively, while in the U.S., Waymo continues to grow their Waymo One service which overtime will capture marketshare from both Uber and Lyft. Meanwhile, Walt headed out to LA to get an on the ground understanding of how Waymo is scaling in the City of Angles and how Angelenos are currently thinking about autonomous vehicles. Episode Chapters0:00 Walt’s LA Adventure2:08 Waymos in LA9:40 Kodiak Files to Go Public17:10 HD Maps20:41 Aurora’s Driver-Out Moment24:22 Lyft Acquires FREENOW, Expands to Europe30:00 Nuro Expands to Japan31:10 Sidewalk Delivery Bots35:10 Tesla FSD38:27 Waymo’s Upcoming Atlanta Launch on Uber41:04 Next WeekRecorded on Thursday, April 17, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Autonomy is transforming industries and creating an entirely new economy that we call the autonomy economy™. The Road to Autonomy provides advisory and market intelligence services that helps you better understand the market and stay ahead of what’s coming next. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.