The Diff

Byrne Hobart
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Oct 27, 2025 • 14min

The Year of Convergence

This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Year of Convergence (09:03) - Ads (10:10) - Maximalism (10:50) - Comparative Advantage (11:35) - Trader-in-Chief (12:20) - GenAI
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Oct 20, 2025 • 28min

Routers, Apps, AGI

This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Routers, Apps, AGI (23:09) - Peripheral Bets (23:59) - Fragmentation and Industry Maturity (24:35) - Deepfakes as Pull Quotes (25:12) - Benchmarks (26:15) - Platforms
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4 snips
Oct 13, 2025 • 21min

In Defense of Generative Video Accelerationism

Byrne Hobart dives into the intriguing world of generative video, exploring how losing trust in moving images may actually enhance our collective pursuit of truth. He draws parallels between generative video and the historical upheaval caused by early printing, emphasizing the impact on authority and perception. The discussion extends to how video shapes overconfidence, the evolution of verification norms, and the adaptability of institutions in the face of changing media landscapes. Also featured are insights into crypto dynamics and unique funding models in the entertainment industry.
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Oct 6, 2025 • 15min

Technological Progress is a Stack of S-Curves; Diffusion is a Stack of J-Curves

This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Technological Progress is a Stack of S-Curves; Diffusion is a Stack of J-Curves (10:01) - AI Efficiency (10:54) - Dollar Diplomacy (11:48) - Sora (12:44) - Capital Structure (14:12) - Reshoring Paradoxes
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Sep 29, 2025 • 15min

Media Gluts Happen at the Level of Distribution, not Content

Dive into the nuances of media distribution versus content, uncovering how distribution channels shape perceptions of media overload. Explore how mid-century magazines influenced culture and the rise of affordable paperbacks. Learn about the implications of reduced distribution costs on niche media's success. Analyze the impact of LLMs on personalized content, and hear insights on the volatile nature of companies with accounting issues. Delve into the complexities of crypto treasuries and TikTok's valuation, all while navigating the intersection of risk and opportunity.
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4 snips
Sep 22, 2025 • 19min

A Sense of History

Byrne Hobart dives into the fascinating intersections of history and technology. He reflects on how few legacy tech firms falter during the AI boom, contrasting it with swift industry shifts of the past. There's intriguing analysis on H-1B policies and the implications of skilled immigration. The episode also covers Meta's new power trading venture as a hedge against AI risks and the dynamics of TikTok's US divestiture. Finally, insights on the merging of crypto-focused companies highlight the evolving landscape in tech.
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Sep 15, 2025 • 13min

On Faking It 'Til You Make It

This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - On Faking It 'Til You Make It (08:01) - GPU Clouds (08:55) - Going Global (09:51) - Prediction Markets (10:41) - Revenge Trading (11:41) - Authenticity
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Sep 8, 2025 • 17min

The Autistic Half-Century

Delve into the intriguing narratives of individuals with milder autistic traits, tracing their historical impact from pioneering figures like Isaac Newton to modern tech-savvy contributors. Learn how the rise of technology since the 1970s has opened doors for those on the spectrum, promoting their analytical strengths. The conversation also navigates the interplay between neurodiversity and AI, highlighting how autistic individuals enhance tech development while discussing the dynamics of IPOs and market trends in the evolving AI landscape.
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Sep 2, 2025 • 15min

Rumor Markets

Delve into the world of rumor markets and discover how price systems convey complex supply and demand information. Learn about the impact of corporate attributes on prediction markets and the role of rumors in risk management. Explore the evolving U.S. market landscape with an emphasis on ETF diversification and the relationship between tech firms and government regulations. Finally, unpack the intricate ties between tariffs, AI, and rising economic nationalism shaping global trade.
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Aug 25, 2025 • 14min

Figure and the Crypto Mullet Strategy

This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Figure and the Crypto Mullet Strategy (09:17) - Billions (10:09) - Intel (11:09) - Negotiating the AI Transition (11:47) - Price Discrimination (12:52) - Sanctions

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