When the Facts Change

Retail spending figures from shops, cafes, restaurants, hotels and holiday hotspots over December and January are the ultimate barometer for spending appetites, income levels and general confidence in job security. Kiwibank senior economist Mary Jo Vergara joins Bernard Hickey to discuss a note she published this week, diving in to the latest spending data collected over the summer break.How relaxed were Kiwi with their holiday spending money? What are the experts predicting for 2025? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Free trade agreements are the global political economy’s hottest topics at the moment, especially since a tariff-toting Donald Trump recently argued (to great political success) that the rising tide of global free trade wasn’t lifting all boats. While global economic growth has lifted many out of poverty, the benefits have been unevenly distributed, leading to increasing wealth inequality and stagnant wages for the middle-class in many parts of the world.Inequality and wealth researcher Max Rashbrooke joins Bernard Hickey to discuss recent inequality trends here in Aotearoa, and to share an interesting idea he has to use KiwiSaver to jumpstart the personal wealth of every single New Zealander, right from the moment they are born. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Maria English, Co-founder and CEO of Impact Lab, dives into the intricate world of social investment in New Zealand. She discusses the importance of data-driven approaches to measure the social return on investment for charitable funding. Through compelling case studies, Maria highlights the unique challenges faced by vulnerable populations and emphasizes the need for tailored support strategies. The conversation also touches on the role of Integrated Data Infrastructure in assessing long-term impacts and the pressing social welfare challenges in Aotearoa.

Sabrina Delgado, an economist at Kiwibank, joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the future of New Zealand's economy in 2025. They dive into the effects of recent interest rate cuts and the potential for economic recovery. Key topics include the real estate market dynamics, the effects of net migration, and business confidence. Sabrina also highlights the necessity of monitoring inflation and labor market trends as crucial indicators that will shape the country’s economic resilience and growth in the coming year.

In order to reduce debt, the coalition government wants to cut spending from 34% of GDP down to 30%. In practice, that means cutting spending on people with disabilities, even though those cuts often increase hospital and care costs in the long term.Bernard is joined this week by disability rights lawyer (and distant cousin) Huhana Hickey, for an in-depth look at what austerity actually means. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Political and economic debates in 2024 were dominated by the Government’s new fast-track legislation, a controversial bill that aims to speed up infrastructure and development, which passed just before Christmas.The debate, and the risks, were summed up in an impassioned plea in parliament by Labour MP Arena Williams, who said of the bill: “This is the closest New Zealand has ever come to cronyism through the legislative process.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Donald Trump’s re-election was the defining moment (and the major shock) in the world of politics this year. His proposed tariff regime is set to upend global economics, which he has kicked off by threatening 25% tariffs on America’s two biggest trading partners: Canada and Mexico. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Finally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand started cutting interest rates this year, having moved before everyone else and stayed higher for longer than everyone else. The economy slumped significantly early in the year, remaining firmly in recession since. By August 14, Adrian Orr felt safe enough to cut 25 basis points. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kiwibank senior economist Mary Jo Vergara has dug through card-spending data to find out how retail spending has changed since Covid, and over the last year of high interest rates. Have we collectively tightened the purse strings in response to a cost-of-living crisis? Or are we taking advantage of online shopping payment options that have never been more convenient? Listen in to find out. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Homelessness in Aotearoa has hit an all-time high, forcing organisations like Wellington City Mission to adopt innovative new strategies. Wellington City Missioner Murray Edridge joins Bernard Hickey to talk about the scale of the housing crisis in our capital city and how a couple of new approaches and buildings are making a difference for those worst affected.Read more about the Wellington City Mission’s efforts in Joel’s MacManus’ Cover Story:https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/11-11-2024/inside-the-urgent-race-to-solve-homelessness-in-aotearoa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices