Sabrina Delgado, an economist at Kiwibank, joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the future of New Zealand's economy in 2025. They dive into the effects of recent interest rate cuts and the potential for economic recovery. Key topics include the real estate market dynamics, the effects of net migration, and business confidence. Sabrina also highlights the necessity of monitoring inflation and labor market trends as crucial indicators that will shape the country’s economic resilience and growth in the coming year.
The economic outlook for 2025 indicates that while recovery will be modest, it’s anticipated to strengthen in the latter half due to rate cuts.
Stabilizing inflation rates around 2% are expected to enhance wage growth, which will improve consumer purchasing power over time.
Deep dives
Economic Outlook for 2025
The economic forecast for 2025 suggests a cautious recovery following a challenging 2024. While there are expectations of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank, the recovery is not anticipated to be rapid, with improvements likely manifesting predominantly in the latter half of the year. Economists recognize that household and business adjustments to the rate cuts may experience delays, particularly due to the typical 18 to 24-month lag in monetary policy effects. However, there is optimism that the recent rate cuts will eventually stimulate economic activity as households feel encouraged to engage in property transactions and investment.
Housing Market Dynamics
The housing market is expected to show signs of recovery in 2025, driven by declining interest rates and increased sales volume. Although 2024 was relatively stagnant for housing, a resurgence in both house prices and sales is projected as interest rates decrease. Experts believe that as more homes are sold and equity is freed up, consumer spending on renovations and goods such as furniture will also increase. There's an outlook of modest price growth, around 5% to 7%, as the market adjusts to renewed buyer confidence and rising listings.
Inflation and Wage Growth
Inflation rates are stabilizing at around 2%, which offers a more favorable environment for wage growth moving forward. In previous years, inflation had outpaced wage increases, contributing to a cost-of-living crisis; however, as inflation aligns with wage growth, consumers are expected to experience real wage increases. This change signifies consumer purchasing power may soon improve, though the transition may take time before being felt broadly across the population. Analysts will closely monitor inflation trends as they remain critical to banking policies and overall economic recovery.
Last June the economists at Kiwibank published an article titled “Survive ‘til 25”, outlining what they saw as a tough six months ahead for our economy. Well we’ve made it to 2025, but is the economic year ahead going to be about surviving or thriving? Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado joins Bernard Hickey to try and find out.