When the Facts Change cover image

When the Facts Change

Is 2025 the year to thrive?

Jan 23, 2025
Sabrina Delgado, an economist at Kiwibank, joins Bernard Hickey to discuss the future of New Zealand's economy in 2025. They dive into the effects of recent interest rate cuts and the potential for economic recovery. Key topics include the real estate market dynamics, the effects of net migration, and business confidence. Sabrina also highlights the necessity of monitoring inflation and labor market trends as crucial indicators that will shape the country’s economic resilience and growth in the coming year.
23:14

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Quick takeaways

  • The economic outlook for 2025 indicates that while recovery will be modest, it’s anticipated to strengthen in the latter half due to rate cuts.
  • Stabilizing inflation rates around 2% are expected to enhance wage growth, which will improve consumer purchasing power over time.

Deep dives

Economic Outlook for 2025

The economic forecast for 2025 suggests a cautious recovery following a challenging 2024. While there are expectations of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank, the recovery is not anticipated to be rapid, with improvements likely manifesting predominantly in the latter half of the year. Economists recognize that household and business adjustments to the rate cuts may experience delays, particularly due to the typical 18 to 24-month lag in monetary policy effects. However, there is optimism that the recent rate cuts will eventually stimulate economic activity as households feel encouraged to engage in property transactions and investment.

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