The Science of Politics

Public opinion and political parties are dividing across states, but is public policy following these differences, with conservative publics and majority Republican parties enacting more conservative policies? Christopher Warshaw finds shifts in state public opinion are reflected in policy, but not always through majority parties. Mark Richardson finds that majority state parties still need to win over centrist legislators and governors to pass charter school and abortion policies. Both find signs of life in statehouse democracy.

Democrats and Republicans are sorting ideologically and socially and we’re developing more negative opinions of one another. Are we dividing into two irreconcilable tribes—or just tuning out both parties? Liliana Mason talks about new research showing our partisan identity is stronger when our ethnic, religious, and ideological identities are strong and linked to our party’s predominant groups. But John Barry Ryan says many citizens dislike both parties and want to tune out of politics, hating the other party only a bit more than their own.

Trust in government is low and declining after another polarized election and in a polarizing administration. We're frustrated, even angry, but maybe we still hold some underlying pride in our government. Steven Webster finds that anger decreases trust, whether it's directed toward the candidates or life in general. But Stephen Nicholson says we still hold implicit trust in government that can be drawn upon in a crisis. We discuss the two sides of trust in government.

2017 saw protest movements return with a vengeance, as millions protested Donald Trump at marches for women, science, immigration, & more. But will that translate into public opinion shifts or electoral mobilization in 2018? Dana Fisher finds a lot of cross-over in concerns and participation across a year of big protests and signs it is translating into electoral mobilization. Nazita Lajevardi finds that protests and news coverage surrounding Trump's immigration executive order moved public views against the policy.

2016 brought a lot of change in presidential primaries, but mostly continuity in House and Senate primaries. How will the candidates gain party support and win votes in this year's crowded primary season? Hans Hassell says party elites and donors continue to decide the vast majority of primaries by clearing the field and providing support. Robert Boatright says the story of primaries as ideological battles contributing to polarization is way oversold. Neither sees 2018 breaking the historical mold.

The U.S. has a long history of spending through the tax code, limiting revenue to provide benefits. But Congress just passed a major tax cut that limited some tax deductions, kept others, and expanded the child tax credit. How do the latest Republican efforts fit historical patterns? Christopher Faricy's recent article finds that Republicans usually limit credits and expand deductions, whereas Democrats do the reverse. Yet Joshua McCabe's research finds that the child tax credit is historically a Republican policy; but its targeting is limited by a debate focused on tax relief rather than income supplementation. Both say the latest law could limit the value and political salience of major tax deductions.

The filibuster effectively means 60 votes are usually required to take action in the Senate. But Senate majorities can make or change rules to get around it. In 2017, Republicans went "nuclear" on Supreme Court nominations and used reconciliation rules to pass tax cuts (but chose not to limit the scope of the Byrd Rule). New books by Molly Reynolds and James Wallner explain when Senate majority parties use procedures to get around the filibuster. Reynolds finds parties follow their electoral and policy preferences but Wallner finds that minority party threatened retaliation can deter change. Matt talks to both about the future prospects for the filibuster and the ways around it.

In many U.S. cities, Latinos and Asians are gaining population share in previously White- or Black-dominated areas. But the vast majority of cities still have white mayors, even those with majority-minority populations. So when do racial minorities gain representation and do they ally to support the same candidates? Paru Shah finds that majority-white and majority-black cities have resisted representation for new immigrant populations. Andrea Benjamin finds that Blacks and Latinos do sometimes vote for the same candidates, but their alliances depend on elite endorsements and racial cues. The results shed light on racial politics in our diversifying nation.

After every mass shooting, partisans retreat to their respective corners on gun control. The National Rifle Association, and the gun owners it represents, are critical forces in our politics, but they may be winning only with Republican voters and in Republican states. Matt Grossmann talks to Mark Joslyn about new research showing gun owners are moving further apart politically from non-gun-owners, with each developing a partisan culture. He also talks to Jay Barth about a new study showing that Obama's elections and NRA influence have accelerated gun policy adoption in the U.S. states, with Republican states deregulation guns and Democratic states regulating them.

In its first few years, the House Freedom Caucus has helped take down a Speaker, choose another, and set the course of the health care debate in Congress. Matt Grossmann talks to Ruth Bloch Rubin about new research comparing them to other intra-party factions over a century of Congressional history, finding that they combine the strategies of their predecessors. He also talks to Andrew Clarke about a new study showing that the Freedom Caucus is more electorally dependent on Trump and gains more face time with him. The new research may explain why centrist and liberal groups have not been as effective.