The Science of Politics

Are Americans losing faith in democracy as our norms erode? Lee Drutman finds that support for democracy remains high, but Democrats and Republicans are increasingly polarized around authoritarian impulses, as Republicans follow Donald Trump's lead. David Adler finds that people who place themselves in the middle of the ideological spectrum are the most skeptical of democracy, in Europe and the United States. Find out if support for strong man leadership is growing on the American Right and if our politics are becoming more like those in Europe.

Public debate on genetic research often assumes that conservatives will prefer genetic explanations for human differences, while liberals will point to environmental factors—perhaps exacerbating political divides on race. But Stephen Schneider finds that conservatives prefer explanations based on personal choice; attributing individual differences to genetics is associated with liberalism and higher tolerance. But when asked to explain racial group differences, Elizabeth Suhay finds that conservatives are attracted to genetic explanations if they are exposed to media messages on genetics and race. Both say people choose their political views first and then select the explanations that fit them.

Unions recently took some hits in Republican states, but now teachers’ strikes are pushing back and winning. Can unions still be influential in Red America, when they are mostly in the public sector? And are they out to defend their own interests or to play a broader social role? Laura Bucci finds that despite declines, unions still help reduce inequality across states—through policy and the labor market. But Daniel DiSalvo finds public sector unions are also leaving states with burdensome legacy costs, with even Republicans capitulating. In both cases, labor unions are still influencing our politics and economy even after big declines in the private sector. Arizona Education Association [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)]

Many say California Republicans’ anti-immigration ballot initiatives in the 1990s lost them the Latino vote and set the party on the road to ruin. Is Trump leading national Republicans down the same failed path? Iris Hui finds that the propositions were not the tipping point, with Republicans starting to lose ground beforehand and feeling the brunt of their shifts only with the next generation. Joshua Zingher finds that California Republicans did lose Latinos without gaining whites, but he says anti-immigration politics in Arizona provides Republicans with a better national model: they gained white voters faster than they lost latinos. Western state politics provides a glimpse of the national future.

We’re increasing defense spending and launching military strikes—and we’re putting it all on the national credit card. That may be no coincidence. Sarah Kreps finds that Americans are more supportive of wars when they are financed through debt rather than taxes. Across the world, Matt DiGiuseppe finds that a nation's creditworthiness leads to more military spending, especially in response to threats. Military power and conflict used to be financed by taxes, limiting democracies' appetites--but now that accountability has been lost.

White racial attitudes play a strong role in voter attitudes from Barack Obama to Donald Trump, but whites think it’s black voters who decide based on race. Darren Davis finds a racial double standard, where racially resentful whites think blacks vote based on race alone. Randall Swain finds Trump benefited from white racial stereotypes and attracted those unconcerned about police use of force against blacks. Both say racial attitudes increasingly divide the American electorate. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Barack_Obama_and_Donald_Trump.jpg

Public opinion and political parties are dividing across states, but is public policy following these differences, with conservative publics and majority Republican parties enacting more conservative policies? Christopher Warshaw finds shifts in state public opinion are reflected in policy, but not always through majority parties. Mark Richardson finds that majority state parties still need to win over centrist legislators and governors to pass charter school and abortion policies. Both find signs of life in statehouse democracy.

Democrats and Republicans are sorting ideologically and socially and we’re developing more negative opinions of one another. Are we dividing into two irreconcilable tribes—or just tuning out both parties? Liliana Mason talks about new research showing our partisan identity is stronger when our ethnic, religious, and ideological identities are strong and linked to our party’s predominant groups. But John Barry Ryan says many citizens dislike both parties and want to tune out of politics, hating the other party only a bit more than their own.

Trust in government is low and declining after another polarized election and in a polarizing administration. We're frustrated, even angry, but maybe we still hold some underlying pride in our government. Steven Webster finds that anger decreases trust, whether it's directed toward the candidates or life in general. But Stephen Nicholson says we still hold implicit trust in government that can be drawn upon in a crisis. We discuss the two sides of trust in government.

2017 saw protest movements return with a vengeance, as millions protested Donald Trump at marches for women, science, immigration, & more. But will that translate into public opinion shifts or electoral mobilization in 2018? Dana Fisher finds a lot of cross-over in concerns and participation across a year of big protests and signs it is translating into electoral mobilization. Nazita Lajevardi finds that protests and news coverage surrounding Trump's immigration executive order moved public views against the policy.