The Macro Trading Floor

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitics at Cognitive Investments for a discussion on the global trend to a multipolar world. In 2022, geopolitics has been one of the leading factors in markets, so we invited an expert in geopolitics to help us navigate this environment. Expecting a shift away from globalization and a more multipolar world over the next decade, this trend has many implications for economies around the world. Jacob walks through the U.S/China relations, Europe's energy crisis and discusses which countries are best positioned in this environment, before finally sharing his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jacob: https://twitter.com/JacobShap Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through http://tmtf.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:42) What Is Happening In The Bond Market? (04:46) Bear Market Rally, Or Market Bottom? (07:38) What Is Happening In Crypto? (12:23) Feature Interview: Jacob Shapiro (15:25) U.S & China Relations After The G20 Meeting (18:23) China's Zero Covid Policy (23:05) De-Globalization (32:02) “Curve Ad” (33:17) Europe's Energy Crisis (38:31) Which Countries Are Well Positioned In This Environment (42:39) Jacob's Actionable Trade Idea (46:38) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (49:22) The Energy Crisis In Europe (51:53) A Trade In The Bond Market -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Brent Donnelly President of Spectra Markets for a discussion on the economic weakness around the world. With market participants focusing on the U.S as Powell continues to fight inflation, Brent reminds us that the real stress is not in the U.S, but elsewhere. Looking to Canada, Brent walks through the fragility he sees in the Canadian economy, and discusses vulnerability in the housing market as mortgages reprice with higher interest rates. Finally, Brent shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Today, The Macro compass graduates from the biggest macro newsletter in the world to an all-round platform whose aim is to help investors fill the data, tools and macro knowledge gap they unfortunately face versus Wall Street. It will be a macro learning journey filled with educational reports, interactive tools and actionable portfolio strategy to help you become a better macro investor. And if you are an institutional investor already, the Pro tier will help sharpen your macro game through dedicated professional products and tools. As a listener of The Macro Trading Floor, you can use the code ''TMTF'' for a 10% discount and sign up for the tier that best fits your needs starting from only $27 per month. Sign up here: https://www.themacrocompass.com/our-products/ -- Follow Brent: https://twitter.com/donnelly_brent Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:50) Top Stories of The Week (11:36) Feature Interview With Brent Donnelly (16:24) Drawing Comparisons Between 2022 & 2001 (21:19) Brent's Outlook On Inflation (29:16) The Housing Market (33:45) Brent's Actionable Trade Idea (42:21) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (53:38) Launching The Macro Compass Platform -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Raoul Pal CEO & Co-Founder, Real Vision & Global Macro Investor to the show for a discussion on debt, demographics and deflationary pressures. Raoul discusses some of the structural deflationary forces that lie ahead for markets. How will these forces effect markets as the Fed, and central banks globally, progress through their fastest tightening cycle in recent history. How are rising rates & high inflation changing asset allocation in this period? Finally, Raoul shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Follow Raoul: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:42)Top Stories of The Week (12:40) Feature Interview With Raoul Pal (25:08) The Low Interest Rate Environment (28:18) Powell Channelling His Inner Volcker (34:22) What Could Bring Markets Lower? (40:24) Raoul's Actionable Trade Idea (47:40) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas is joined by Jack Farley Host of Forward Guidance to discuss big tech earnings, preparing for a recession in Europe and natural gas prices. Natural gas prices in Europe plunged due to a mild start to winter throughout October, European next hour Dutch TTF actually briefly turned negative. Andreas & Jack walk through the dynamics sending prices lower and discuss if Europe is through the worst? Finally, Andreas shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Meta Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results: https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2022/q3/Meta-09.30.2022-Exhibit-99.1-FINAL.pdf -- (00:00) Introduction (00:37) U.S Earnings Season (06:45) The 10yr/3m Yield Curve Inverts (11:06) Preparing For A Recession In Europe (15:48) Progressing Through the Tightening Cycle (19:34) European Natural Gas (28:42) Andreas' Actionable Trade Idea -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Michael Gayed of Toroso Investments and publisher of The Lead-Lag Report to the show for a discussion on if their is a bull case for markets. Michael discusses the poor performance of bonds throughout the year as they failed to hedge equity drawdowns. What does this mean for the traditional 60/40? And how does the YTD performance compare with periods throughout history? Finally, Michael shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/leadlagreport Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:05) A Recap From London (14:07) Feature Interview With Michael Gayed (17:27) Is This Time Really Different? (20:31) Death By 1000 Cuts Or A Systemic Event? (25:01) Investor's Are Underestimating How Serious This Is (26:52) Expecting A Prolonged Bear Market (29:26) Analysing The Risk On/Off Environment (31:48) The Housing Market (35:25) Michael's Actionable Trade Idea (40:27) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Mikael Sarwe, director and head of Strategy Sweden at Nordea, to the show. Sarwe argues that with collapsing liquidity driving down the money supply, the ability of market participants to take risk is greatly reduced, and as such the mid-term outlook for risk assets remains poor. Sarwe explains that he remains bond volatility to remain high, but that nonetheless he expects longer-duration bonds to significantly outperform equities over the coming six to nine months. To hear Mikael’s actionable trade idea, you’ll have to tune in! This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Mikael: https://twitter.com/mikaelsarwe Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Intro (00:44) U.S. Inflation Report (09:05) Is The Bond Market Broken? (13:39) Mikael Sarwe's Recession Thesis (19:04) When Will Central Banks Stop Hiking Interest Rates? (23:33) U.K. Gilts and the Bank of England (BOE) (26:39) Outlook on Bonds (33:22) The Dollar (37:34) The Trade (39:40) Analysis Of The Trade (49:55) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso welcomes John Porter Principal of Mercator Financial Advisors to the show. With a background spanning from CIO at the World Bank, Managing Director at Barclays, working in several hedge funds and so much more, John Porter was the perfect guest to invite to the show. John shares his thoughts on how he is viewing markets in 2022, and what the next six months could have in store. John goes on to discuss how he is viewing the path for inflation, the bond market and finally shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://bit.ly/3SZKWSx Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3SM4R7h -- (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Q4 Kicks Off With A Rally In Risk Asset's (06:52) Fed Pivot? Think Again... (09:20) Feature Interview With John Porter (48:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso discuss the top stories of the week from the Bank of England announcing emergency gilt market operations, recent volatility in currency markets & the Nord Stream gas leak. With so much happening in currencies as the US dollar continues marching higher, Alfonso & Andreas take the time to highlight the key indicators to look at in FX markets. Just how are indicators such as inflation, energy & interest rates effecting currencies around the world? Finally, Andreas and Alfonso highlight the good, bad & safe haven currencies with an actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Bank of England announces gilt market operation https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/september/bank-of-england-announces-gilt-market-operation  Bank of England launches £65bn move to calm markets https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-b2a6-4580-9054-206386353c4e  Nord Stream gas leak continues to bubble in the Baltic Sea as EU diplomat suspects sabotage https://news.sky.com/video/nord-stream-gas-leak-continues-to-bubble-in-the-baltic-sea-as-eu-diplomat-suspects-sabotage-12706871 -- (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Bank of England Announces Gilt Market Operation (05:09) Risks In European Bond Markets (09:12) What Does This Mean For Markets? (12:15) Feature Interview With Andreas (13:22) The Bull Case For Risk Assets (19:31) What Options Do Central Banks Have? (24:38) Andreas' Actionable Trade Idea (29:17) Feature Interview With Alfonso (31:44) Geopolitical Risk In The Baltic Sea (37:01) The Strongest & Weakest Global Currencies (40:56) Alfonso’s Actionable Trade Ideas (43:13) Post Interview Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Bob Elliott Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds to the show. With U.S inflation still above 8%, Bob walks through previous periods of inflation and describes what kind of portfolios are best suited to periods of high inflation. How does the traditional 60/40, risk parity and often deemed commodity inflation hedges such as gold perform in inflationary periods? Finally, Bob shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Bob: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The FOMC Meeting (07:16) An Update On The European Energy Crisis (11:56) Feature Interview With Bob Elliot (13:48) Central Banks Reaction To Inflation (16:05) Powell Doesn't Wan't To Repeat The Mistake of The 1970's (19:22) Asset Allocation During Inflationary Periods (22:16) Gold (25:35) Commodities In This Environment (28:10) The Role of The 60/40 Portfolio (34:32) Bob's Actionable Trade Idea (43:28) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso takes a week out and substitutes in Jack Farley Host of another Blockworks podcast titled "Forward Guidance". Andreas and Jack welcome Andrew Simon, Chief Operating Officer of Macro Hive to the show for a discussion on one of the most widely discussed topics in markets, energy. Seeing no sings of a reversal in the bullish trend for energy, particularly oil & natural gas, Andrew makes the case for why politicians around the world are actually contributing to the higher prices. Finally, Andrew shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx --  Follow Andrew: https://twitter.com/Asimoan28 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --  Timestamps:  (00:00) Introduction  (04:19) Inflation Surprised To The Upside (06:36) Energy's Effect On Inflation (11:06) Feature Interview With Andrew Simon (12:27) What Is Happening In Energy? (19:32) Why Andrew Is Bullish On Oil (28:28) Political Risk of Being Long Energy (30:32 )The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (36:51) Andrew's Actionable Trade Idea (44:09) The Oil Price vs 2008 (48:16) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.