The Macro Trading Floor

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso interpret the latest macroeconomic data and prepare for a week of important central bank meetings. They wonder whether the recent bullish movements in nearly every risk asset is a sign that quantitative easing (QE) is back on a global scale (the answer is a firm “no”). After discussing commodity prices, Andreas and Alfonso explore whether a very unusual kind of recession occurred in 2022 that is already over. Lastly, they share their actionable trade ideas. Filmed on January 26th, 2023. -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To Steno Research: https://stenoresearch.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_mac..., you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (06:02) The Market Is Already Expecting Central Banks To Cut Interest Rates (12:05) The U.S. Dollar (21:11) Did The Recession Already Happen In 2022? (25:54) Actionable Trade Ideas -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Andreas and Alfonso welcome John Normand Cross-Asset Strategist, JPM alum for a global macro tour of the world. John walks through the most anticipated recession in history by looking at the current market pricing in FX, rates and credit. Has the forecasted slowdown in 2023 really started to rear its head under the headlines in financial media? John then goes on to discuss the Chinese reopening and what implications the second largest economy coming back online will have for the rest of the global economy as inflation continues on it's current downtrend. Finally, John shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow John: https://www.linkedin.com/in/john-normand-4b902b55/ Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/ Subscribe To Steno Research: https://stenoresearch.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- WisdomTree is a global ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager founded in 2006 and with a track record of innovation and creating better ways to invest. Today, we offer a broad range of differentiated ETFs and ETPs across equities, thematics, commodities, fixed income, currencies, short and leveraged, and cryptocurrencies with over $80 billion in assets under management. For more information, please visit https://bit.ly/3VXYPkx -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_mac..., you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:55) What Is Happening With The BoJ? (05:55) The ECB Is Going Against The Tide (09:23) What Is The Trade? (12:15) Feature Interview With John Normand (18:41) Curve Ad (20:08) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (24:00) The Most Anticipated Recession In History (30:31) Structural Shifts In The Economy (34:29) Wisdom Tree Ad (35:03) Asset Allocation In 2023 (38:13) John's Actionable Trade Idea (40:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (45:28) Preparing For A Global Slowdown -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Steve Drobny Founder and CEO at Clocktower Group for an inside look into the hedge fund industry. With the past two years spurring the return of macro volatility, many macro hedge funds have arisen, posting high returns in the timeframe. Steve, with his extensive connections in the hedge fund industry, walks through the past two years of higher inflation and how this changed the investing landscape compared to the 12 years prior. He then goes on to discuss what the coming decade could look like. Have we entered a new regime, which could see the rise of more macro hedge funds as "macro is back with a vengeance?" To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Clocktower Group: https://www.linkedin.com/company/clocktower-group/ Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- WisdomTree is a global ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager founded in 2006 and with a track record of innovation and creating better ways to invest. Today, we offer a broad range of differentiated ETFs and ETPs across equities, thematics, commodities, fixed income, currencies, short and leveraged, and cryptocurrencies with over $80 billion in assets under management. For more information, please visit https://bit.ly/3VXYPkx -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Blackstone’s BREIT Gets $4 Billion California Injection: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-03/blackstone-s-breit-gets-4-billion-from-university-of-california -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:08) The U.S Inflation Report (04:38) What Is Happening With The BoJ? (07:49) The ECB Is... Raising Rates?! (08:48) The China Reopening (10:33) Feature Interview With Steve Drobny (13:38) What Makes A Successful Macro Fund Manager? (21:57) “Curve Ad” (23:07) Macro Is Back With A Vengeance (29:14) Launching A Hedge Fund (33:54) “Wisdom Tree Ad” (34:27) The Growth Of Hedge Fund's In The Coming Decade (38:05) Post Interview (40:40) Trades For The China Reopening (45:19) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Nitesh Shah Head of Commodity and Macroeconomic Research at WisdomTree for a discussion on the China reopening, how it will effect commodity markets and it's impact on broader markets. Energy was the strongest performing sector in 2022, but should we expect the same in 2023? Nitesh walks through the commodity supercycle thesis, as it conflicts with a business cycle downturn in 2023 and what this could mean for commodities, specifically oil, heading into 2023 and beyond. Finally, Nitesh shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Nitesh: https://twitter.com/NiteshShahWT Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- WisdomTree is a global ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager founded in 2006 and with a track record of innovation and creating better ways to invest. Today, we offer a broad range of differentiated ETFs and ETPs across equities, thematics, commodities, fixed income, currencies, short and leveraged, and cryptocurrencies with over $80 billion in assets under management. For more information, please visit https://bit.ly/3VXYPkx -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 13–14, 2022: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20221214.pdf OPEC slashes oil demand outlook on global economic uncertainty after earlier predictions of supply shortfalls: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-outlook-opec-cuts-2023-demand-over-global-uncertainty-flows-2022-12?op=1  Inflation Will Fall off A Cliff In 2023 | Warren Pies: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/inflation-will-fall-off-a-cliff-in-2023-warren-pies/id1618502265?i=1000591241444  WisdomTree Insights: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/blog -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction & "WisdomTree Ad" (01:19) Breaking Down The Fed Minutes (07:12) Europe Is Showing Signs of Disinflation (10:41) The China Reopening (13:32) Feature Interview: Nitesh Shah (17:07) How A Chinese Reopening Will Impact Commodities (20:09) The Divergence Between Gold & Oil (23:33) Oil Supply & Demand In A 2023 Recession (26:46) “Curve Ad” (27:56) The Commodity Supercycle (32:39) How Russia & Ukraine Is Effecting Global Commodity Markets (35:05) Nitesh's Actionable Trade Idea (41:16) Closing Thoughts (42:56) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso look back at 2022, before sharing their global macro outlook for 2023. Reflecting on the best trades of the year, Andreas and Alfonso remember the greatest trades put forward by our guests in 2022. Turning to 2023, just how will the events of 2022 shape the global macro picture? We dive into the equity market outlook, what the liquidity cycle is telling us and finally, Andreas and Alfonso share their actionable trade ideas. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®️, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you'll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:37) 2022: A Year In Review (04:35) The Best Trades In 2022 On The Macro Trading Floor (10:22) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook (17:59) The U.S & European Business Cycle (20:22) “Curve Ad” (21:32) The U.S & European Business Cycle (28:52) Equity Market's In 2023 (35:07) The Liquidity Cycle In 2023 (39:44) Higher, Or Lower? (43:15) The Best Trade For The New Year -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Warren Pies Founder of 3Fourteen Research for a discussion on what to expect as we head into 2023. Warren begins by walking through the current macro cycle he sees us in as we wrap up 2022 and head into 2023. As the yield curve displays some very important signals, Warren draws historical comparisons over the past 40+ years that help investors understand when the Fed might be forced to pause on their current tightening cycle. Expecting inflation to significantly reduce next year, Warren identifies a good risk reward scenario in the bond market . Finally, Warren shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Warren: https://twitter.com/WarrenPies Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) What Is Happening With The BoJ? (08:03) Lagarde's Hawkish Stance Ripples Through The European Bond Market (11:25) Europe Introduces An Energy Price Cap (14:02) Feature Interview With Warren Pies (15:05) Where Are We In The Current Macro Cycle? (17:37) The BoJ Suprises Markets With A Major Policy Change (19:56) Is This Time Different? (23:50) Don't Ignore The Yield Curve (27:15) Energy Will Be A Relative Outperformer (32:25) “Curve Ad” (33:35) Fading The Inflation Narrative (37:31) Warren's Actionable Trade Idea (44:28) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (53:43) What To Expect Heading Into 2023 -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Felix Zulauf of Zulauf Consulting for a discussion on the changing macro landscape and the policy error the Fed is making. Taking us on a global macro tour of the world, Felix argues that the past few decades of globalization could now be in reverse, and most investors are not well positioned for that transition. We then go on to discuss the trends in inflation, wether we will enter a recession in 2023 and finally Felix's actionable trade idea. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: A Divided Bank of England Raises Rates to 3.5%: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-12-15/a-divided-bank-of-england-raises-rates-to-3-5 Zulauf Consulting: https://www.felixzulauf.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:45) Breaking Down The ECB Meeting (06:27) The Fed & The ECB Are Looking In The Rear View Mirror (08:06) All Eyes On The Bank of England (11:56) Feature Interview With Felix Zulauf (15:07) A Global Macro Outlook (30:30) Do You Expect A 2023 Recession? (38:07) “Curve Ad” (39:16) Felix's Actionable Trade Idea (43:26) What Could Go Wrong With Your Thesis? (51:03) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (55:29) Powell Will Stop Raising Rates When You Stop Trading Monkey JPEGs (58:34) The U.S Debt Ceiling Looms (1:01:30) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity for a discussion about the recession many analysts see ahead in 2023. How could a recession in 2023 effect corporate earnings and markets more broadly? As liquidity ha already declined throughout 2022, could a recession be the catalyst to bring markets lower? Jurrien walks through all these dynamics and how the tightening of financial conditions has impacted Jurrien's favoured discount cash flow model. Finally, Jurrien shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Jurrien: https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing: https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2212h.htm -- (00:00) Introduction (00:30) The Bond Market Is Pricing A 2023 Recession (06:11) Does Inflation Come Down With A Recession? History Says Yes (10:38) Feature Interview With Jurrien Timmer (18:03) The Market Is Hooked On Liquidity (24:22) “Curve Ad” (25:31) The Market Is Hooked On Liquidity (30:12) Are We Close To A Peak In Fed Funds? (35:25) Jurrien's Actionable Trade Idea (38:42) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (41:17) When Will The Fed End QT? (51:54) Dollar debt in FX swaps and forwards: huge, missing and growing -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

We apologise for any minor audio issues you may experience on today's episode. -- On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso welcome Alex Campbell, the Founder of Rose AI, to the show for a discussion on the current situation in China. As inflation, de-globalization, and tight commodity markets continue to impact markets, Alex provides insights on the best ways to protect yourself in today's environment. Drawing on his extensive experience as the Head of Commodities at Bridgewater Associates, Alex delves into the structural underinvestment in the sector, how geopolitics have shaped the markets in 2022, and the likely path ahead in 2023. Tune in to hear Alex's actionable trade idea and learn more about how to navigate today's challenging economic landscape. -- Follow Alex: https://twitter.com/abcampbell Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Referenced In The Show: Real Estate Watch - The equity market crisis to spread to Real Estate: https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/real-estate-watch-the-equity-market -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:20) Breaking Down Jerome Powell's Speech (04:20) Blackstone Limits Withdrawals In Major Property Fund (06:52) The Labor Market (11:23) Feature Interview With Alex Campbell (18:02) What Is Happening In China? (23:15) Inflation, De-Globilization & Commodities (28:31) “Curve Ad” (29:41) The Fed Is Tightening, But The PBOC Is Loosening... (32:22) Is Volatility Too Cheap? (34:28) Asset Allocation During An Inflationary Cycle (37:18) Alex's Actionable Trade Idea (42:24) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Thomas Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry joins the show to discuss the equity bear market in 2022. Tommy walks through what has happened in 2022, and what to expect in 2023 as investors face uncertainty if the recent rally is a bear market rally, or a bottom. Tommy goes on to discuss the energy trade and where the best risk/reward is in markets right now. Finally, Tommy shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Tommy: https://twitter.com/TommyThornton Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_macro_trading, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:38) Recent Moves In FX (07:24) The Yield Curve Doesn't Stop Inverting (12:10) Feature Interview: Thomas Thornton (15:57) How Tommy Manoeuvred Markets in 2022 (17:46) The Recent Rally In Markets: Market Bottom, or Bear Market Rally? (22:12) “Curve Ad” (23:27) Tommy's Market Outlook Into 2023 (34:45) The Energy Trade (37:07) Tommy's Actionable Trade Idea (41:14) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.