The Macro Trading Floor

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas is joined by Jack Farley Host of Forward Guidance to discuss big tech earnings, preparing for a recession in Europe and natural gas prices. Natural gas prices in Europe plunged due to a mild start to winter throughout October, European next hour Dutch TTF actually briefly turned negative. Andreas & Jack walk through the dynamics sending prices lower and discuss if Europe is through the worst? Finally, Andreas shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Meta Reports Third Quarter 2022 Results: https://s21.q4cdn.com/399680738/files/doc_financials/2022/q3/Meta-09.30.2022-Exhibit-99.1-FINAL.pdf -- (00:00) Introduction (00:37) U.S Earnings Season (06:45) The 10yr/3m Yield Curve Inverts (11:06) Preparing For A Recession In Europe (15:48) Progressing Through the Tightening Cycle (19:34) European Natural Gas (28:42) Andreas' Actionable Trade Idea -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Michael Gayed of Toroso Investments and publisher of The Lead-Lag Report to the show for a discussion on if their is a bull case for markets. Michael discusses the poor performance of bonds throughout the year as they failed to hedge equity drawdowns. What does this mean for the traditional 60/40? And how does the YTD performance compare with periods throughout history? Finally, Michael shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/leadlagreport Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (01:05) A Recap From London (14:07) Feature Interview With Michael Gayed (17:27) Is This Time Really Different? (20:31) Death By 1000 Cuts Or A Systemic Event? (25:01) Investor's Are Underestimating How Serious This Is (26:52) Expecting A Prolonged Bear Market (29:26) Analysing The Risk On/Off Environment (31:48) The Housing Market (35:25) Michael's Actionable Trade Idea (40:27) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Mikael Sarwe, director and head of Strategy Sweden at Nordea, to the show. Sarwe argues that with collapsing liquidity driving down the money supply, the ability of market participants to take risk is greatly reduced, and as such the mid-term outlook for risk assets remains poor. Sarwe explains that he remains bond volatility to remain high, but that nonetheless he expects longer-duration bonds to significantly outperform equities over the coming six to nine months. To hear Mikael’s actionable trade idea, you’ll have to tune in! This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Mikael: https://twitter.com/mikaelsarwe Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Intro (00:44) U.S. Inflation Report (09:05) Is The Bond Market Broken? (13:39) Mikael Sarwe's Recession Thesis (19:04) When Will Central Banks Stop Hiking Interest Rates? (23:33) U.K. Gilts and the Bank of England (BOE) (26:39) Outlook on Bonds (33:22) The Dollar (37:34) The Trade (39:40) Analysis Of The Trade (49:55) Outro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso welcomes John Porter Principal of Mercator Financial Advisors to the show. With a background spanning from CIO at the World Bank, Managing Director at Barclays, working in several hedge funds and so much more, John Porter was the perfect guest to invite to the show. John shares his thoughts on how he is viewing markets in 2022, and what the next six months could have in store. John goes on to discuss how he is viewing the path for inflation, the bond market and finally shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://bit.ly/3SZKWSx Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://bit.ly/3SM4R7h -- (00:00) Introduction (00:29) Q4 Kicks Off With A Rally In Risk Asset's (06:52) Fed Pivot? Think Again... (09:20) Feature Interview With John Porter (48:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso discuss the top stories of the week from the Bank of England announcing emergency gilt market operations, recent volatility in currency markets & the Nord Stream gas leak. With so much happening in currencies as the US dollar continues marching higher, Alfonso & Andreas take the time to highlight the key indicators to look at in FX markets. Just how are indicators such as inflation, energy & interest rates effecting currencies around the world? Finally, Andreas and Alfonso highlight the good, bad & safe haven currencies with an actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Bank of England announces gilt market operation https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2022/september/bank-of-england-announces-gilt-market-operation  Bank of England launches £65bn move to calm markets https://www.ft.com/content/756e81d1-b2a6-4580-9054-206386353c4e  Nord Stream gas leak continues to bubble in the Baltic Sea as EU diplomat suspects sabotage https://news.sky.com/video/nord-stream-gas-leak-continues-to-bubble-in-the-baltic-sea-as-eu-diplomat-suspects-sabotage-12706871 -- (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Bank of England Announces Gilt Market Operation (05:09) Risks In European Bond Markets (09:12) What Does This Mean For Markets? (12:15) Feature Interview With Andreas (13:22) The Bull Case For Risk Assets (19:31) What Options Do Central Banks Have? (24:38) Andreas' Actionable Trade Idea (29:17) Feature Interview With Alfonso (31:44) Geopolitical Risk In The Baltic Sea (37:01) The Strongest & Weakest Global Currencies (40:56) Alfonso’s Actionable Trade Ideas (43:13) Post Interview Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Bob Elliott Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds to the show. With U.S inflation still above 8%, Bob walks through previous periods of inflation and describes what kind of portfolios are best suited to periods of high inflation. How does the traditional 60/40, risk parity and often deemed commodity inflation hedges such as gold perform in inflationary periods? Finally, Bob shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Stani Kulechov, Andrew Peel, Lisa Cameron, Jon Cheesman and Thomas Uhm. Visit https://blockworks.co/events/ and sign up for 20% off with code "MACRO." -- Follow Bob: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Alf: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- (00:00) Introduction (00:33) The FOMC Meeting (07:16) An Update On The European Energy Crisis (11:56) Feature Interview With Bob Elliot (13:48) Central Banks Reaction To Inflation (16:05) Powell Doesn't Wan't To Repeat The Mistake of The 1970's (19:22) Asset Allocation During Inflationary Periods (22:16) Gold (25:35) Commodities In This Environment (28:10) The Role of The 60/40 Portfolio (34:32) Bob's Actionable Trade Idea (43:28) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Alfonso takes a week out and substitutes in Jack Farley Host of another Blockworks podcast titled "Forward Guidance". Andreas and Jack welcome Andrew Simon, Chief Operating Officer of Macro Hive to the show for a discussion on one of the most widely discussed topics in markets, energy. Seeing no sings of a reversal in the bullish trend for energy, particularly oil & natural gas, Andrew makes the case for why politicians around the world are actually contributing to the higher prices. Finally, Andrew shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx --  Follow Andrew: https://twitter.com/Asimoan28 Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno  Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/  Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/  Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --  Timestamps:  (00:00) Introduction  (04:19) Inflation Surprised To The Upside (06:36) Energy's Effect On Inflation (11:06) Feature Interview With Andrew Simon (12:27) What Is Happening In Energy? (19:32) Why Andrew Is Bullish On Oil (28:28) Political Risk of Being Long Energy (30:32 )The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (36:51) Andrew's Actionable Trade Idea (44:09) The Oil Price vs 2008 (48:16) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Vincent Deluard Director of global macro at StoneX. Vincent outlines the new regime for inflation before taking a deep dive into the labor market and how structural shifts such as demographics & de-globalization are beginning to cause tectonic shifts for global markets. Finally, despite all the headwinds Europe faces, Vincent shares the bull case for a certain sector of the European economy by outlining his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, they provide free currency subaccounts and competitive interest rates on deposits in local currencies. Learn more at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show: Truss Drafts £130 Billion Plan to Freeze UK Energy Bills: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-05/truss-earmarks-130-billion-to-keep-uk-energy-bills-below-2-000 Asset Purchase Facility: Gilt Sales – Market Notice 1 September 2022: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/market-notices/2022/september/apf-gilt-sales-market-notice-1-september-2022  Putin vs Europe - The Long War: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/the-long-war#details -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:36) Europe's Reaction to the Energy Crisis (05:17) European Banks Excess Liquidity (06:26) Pricing A Systemic Risk In Europe (09:02) The BoE Secretly Announces Yield Curve Control (11:32) Feature Interview: Vincent Deluard (12:46) The Inflation Regime Shift (15:32) The Labor Market (21:00) Deglobalization Marks A Shift In The Labor Market (31:07) Long Duration in US Markets (35:01) The US Dollar Wrecking Ball (38:09) Vincent's Actionable Trade Idea (43:29) Post Interview: Final Thoughts (45:50) A "Techtonic" Shifts in Global Markets (51:41) Vincent's Actionable Trade Idea Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Ben Melkman Founder & CIO of Light Sky Macro. Expecting a secular shift in inflation, Ben shares his thoughts on the current state of markets as the Fed continues their fight to slay the inflation dragon. Could the Fed be out of ammo? Are markets mispriced for a secular shift in inflation? Ben walks through the biggest opportunities he sees today in markets before sharing his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, you can trade Gold your way, using either Futures, Options, Forwards or ETCs. Discover more opportunities at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:  Stenos Signals #13 - No, Germany is probably not running out of gas: https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/stenos-signals-13-no-germany-is-probably  UK's Liz Truss will probe extent of Bank of England independence, supporter says: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-liz-truss-will-probe-extent-bank-england-independence-supporter-says-2022-08-04/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:01) Natural Gas In Europe (03:40) Inflation In Europe (06:26) Pricing A Systemic Risk In Europe (10:55) Feature Interview: Ben Melkman (11:31) A Secular Shift For Inflation (21:00) Jerome Powell's Comments At Jackson Hole (28:49) Will The Fed Accept Above 2% Inflation? (31:09) The U.S Dollar (37:41) Ben's Actionable Trade Idea (47:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome David Woo CEO of David Woo Unbound to the show. Recording ahead of Jackson Hole, David shares his outlook on a US recession, Fed policy vs economic growth, whether or not the Fed will be able to slay the inflation dragon and the importance of understanding politics as well as economics in this market regime. Finally, David shares his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in! -- “This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, you can trade Gold your way, using either Futures, Options, Forwards or ETCs and gain access to a wide range of government and corporate bonds. Discover more opportunities at https://goto.saxo/macrofx -- DAS Digital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up -- Follow David: https://twitter.com/davidwoounbound Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno Follow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Referenced In The Show:  Bridgewater Doubles Short Wagers in Europe to $10.5 Billion https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/bridgewater-doubles-bet-against-european-stocks-to-10-5-billion  Biden Unveils Plan to Free Students from ‘Unsustainable Debt https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/biden-set-to-freeze-student-loan-repayments-for-four-more-months  Kansas City Fed's George on rate hikes: 'We have more work to do' https://uk.news.yahoo.com/kansas-city-feds-george-rate-133641402.html -- Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:34) Is Europe's Energy Crisis As Bad As Reported? (01:00) Top Stories Of The Week (07:43) Biden Unveils Plan to Cancel Student Debt (12:35) Feature Interview With David Woo (17:20) Fed Policy vs Economic Growth (21:55) The Path Ahead For Midterms (26:55) Can The Fed Slay The Inflation Dragon? (29:42) Quantitative Tightening (35:05) David's Actionable Trade Idea (44:26) Post Interview: Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.