Astral Codex Ten Podcast

Robin Hanson, known for his belief that medicine doesn't work, discusses the effectiveness of medical interventions, challenges biases in medical literature, and explores the impact of health insurance on outcomes. The podcast dives into historical perspectives on medical practices, advances in cancer treatment, and the complexities in studying medication effectiveness.

[previously in series: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5] When that April with his sunlight fierce The rainy winter of the coast doth pierce And filleth every spirit with such hale As horniness engenders in the male Then folk go out in crop tops and in shorts Their bodies firm from exercise and sports And men gaze at the tall girls and the shawties And San Franciscans long to go to parties. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ye-olde-bay-area-house-party 

Lumina, the genetically modified anti-tooth-decay bacterium that I wrote about in December, is back in the news after lowering its price from $20,000 to $250 and getting endorsements from Yishan Wong, Cremieux, and Richard Hanania (as well as anti-endorsements from Saloni and Stuart Ritchie). A few points that have come up: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/updates-on-lumina-probiotic

Saar responds to zoonosis arguments while Peter clarifies his trolling calculations. Discussion on lab leak theory, COVID in Brazilian wastewater, early cases data analysis, virologists' claims, and challenges of investigating COVID origins. Delve into statistical tests, genetic data, ascertainment bias, and probabilities in the debate.

Exploring unique British political designations, evolution of daylight saving time, a religious amusement park's Tower of Babel ambition, AI competitions, invasion literature, African cash systems, transgender identity controversy, San Francisco housing policies, noise pollution issues, AGI perspectives, IQ enhancement methods, alt-right tactics, tech mogul's donation, educational shifts, and ways to support the podcast.

Upcoming Spring Meetups Across 80+ Cities: Dive into the excitement of AstralCrotix10's spring meetups, spanning diverse cities worldwide, with inclusive guidelines for attendees and organizers. Discover the map feature and learn how to manage meetup events.

Saar Wilf, an ex-Israeli entrepreneur, discusses Rootclaim's use of Bayesian reasoning to analyze open problems like Putin's health, lab leak hypothesis, and COVID-19 origins. They delve into the Wuhan Institute of Virology, unique characteristics of COVID, and debate the origins of the pandemic using statistical probabilities and expert analyses.

The podcast discusses assigning probabilities to unpredictable events like human landing on Mars and AI impact on humanity. It explores using precise percentages for clarity, the complexity of simple answers, mastering forecasting, and navigating uncertainties in AI probabilities.

I have data from two big Internet surveys, Less Wrong 2014 and Clearer Thinking 2023. Both asked questions about IQ: The average LessWronger reported their IQ as 138. The average ClearerThinking user reported their IQ as 130. These are implausibly high. Only 1/200 people has an IQ of 138 or higher. 1/50 people have IQ 130, but the ClearerThinking survey used crowdworkers (eg Mechanical Turk) who should be totally average. Okay, fine, so people lie about their IQ (or foolishly trust fake Internet IQ tests). Big deal, right? But these don’t look like lies. Both surveys asked for SAT scores, which are known to correspond to IQ. The LessWrong average was 1446, corresponding to IQ 140. The ClearerThinking average was 1350, corresponding to IQ 134. People seem less likely to lie about their SATs, and least likely of all to optimize their lies for getting IQ/SAT correspondences right. And the Less Wrong survey asked people what test they based their estimates off of. Some people said fake Internet IQ tests. But other people named respected tests like the WAIS, WISC, and Stanford-Binet, or testing sessions by Mensa (yes, I know you all hate Mensa, but their IQ tests are considered pretty accurate). The subset of about 150 people who named unimpeachable tests had slightly higher IQ (average 140) than everyone else. Thanks to Spencer Greenberg of ClearerThinking, I think I’m finally starting to make progress in explaining what’s going on. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-mystery-of-internet-survey-iqs 

Exploring therapy culture, the podcast discusses the impact on individuals' search for authenticity, real-world therapy versus generic ideals, and alexithymia. It also delves into uncovering genuine preferences, self-realization, and the pitfalls of conforming to a preconceived 'true self.'