Astral Codex Ten Podcast

The last week hasn’t been great for the Democratic Party. First Biden bombed the debate. But the subsequent decision about whether/how to replace Biden has also been embarrassing. Biden has refused to step aside gracefully, and party elites don’t seem to have any contingency plan. Worse, they don’t even seem united on the need to figure anything out, with many deflecting the conversation to irrelevant points like “Trump is also bad” or pretending that nothing is really wrong. Some of the party’s problems are hard and have no shortcuts. But the big one - figuring out whether replacing Biden would even help the Democrats’ electoral chances - is a good match for prediction markets. Set up markets to find the probability of Democrats winning they nominate Biden, vs. the probability of Democrats winning if they replace him with someone else. (see my Prediction Market FAQ for why I think they are good for cases like these) Before we go into specifics, the summary result: Replacing Biden with Harris is neutral to slightly positive; replacing Biden with Newsom or a generic Democrat increases their odds of winning by 10 - 15 percentage points. There are some potential technical objections to this claim, but they mostly suggest reasons why the markets might overestimate Biden’s chances rather than underestimate them. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-markets-suggest-replacing 

Guest Matthew Scully, a conservative Christian and former speechwriter for George W. Bush, discusses animal welfare in his book 'Dominion'. They touch on ethical treatment of animals, exploring consciousness and sentience, debating animal pain, emotions, protection efforts, and controversies.

President Biden and former President Trump engage in a fictional 2024 Presidential debate where Biden questions the existence of states, leading to philosophical discussions. Topics include abortion rights, wokeness, cancel culture, misinformation, conspiracy theories, and immigration policies with a humorous and absurd twist.

Discusses the concept of fake traditions and transforming them into valuable aesthetics and rituals. Explores the idea of secular weekly meetings as a replacement for religious traditions. Evaluates the success of 2010s New Atheist attempts to reinvent 'church, but secular'.

The podcast delves into the societal values reflected in Japanese currency portraits and the intriguing life of Yukichi Fukuzawa. It explores his challenges in pursuing scholarly interests, impact on modernizing Japan, and the concept of a new city for skilled foreigners.

The podcast explores how traditions from the past, like Indian food and Moorish Revival architecture, are perceived. It delves into the argument that tradition can be seen as fake compared to invention, using examples like a fertility festival in Hastings, England. The influence of historical periods on past cultures, such as the Renaissance's Greco-Roman revival, is also discussed. Additionally, the podcast examines a New York synagogue's Moorish revival architecture inspired by Al-Andalus and the concept of creativity leading to unique outcomes.

Inventor Steve Kirsch, known for the optical mouse, discusses anti-COVID-vaccine activism. He analyzes data on COVID and vaccine-related deaths, highlighting discrepancies in poll results. The podcast explores varying percentages from surveys and how political beliefs may impact reporting accuracy. Emphasis is placed on interpreting data cautiously and relying on peer-reviewed studies.

Discussion on the ethics of genetics and embryo selection, questioning the idea of genetic inferiority. Examining cystic fibrosis as a case study. Exploring perceptions of inferiority compared to others and the flaws in self-worth measures.

Discover the journey of turning an online novel into a paperback edition with improved chapters, revised character names, and enriched historical context. Learn about the challenges faced and the gratitude expressed towards those who helped make it happen.

Lyman Stone discusses his critique of Effective Altruism, questioning the impact of spatial distribution on charitable giving. The podcast explores various altruistic causes supported by EAs, analyzes the effectiveness of EA donations, and delves into ethical dilemmas of extreme measures like terrorism. It also touches on animal welfare, evolutionary perspectives on caregiving, and the role of philosophy in moral decision-making.