In this enlightening episode, we tackle the often-misunderstood topic of discerning genuine trading opportunities from the noise in market data. We challenge the traditional reliance on visual methods like Technical Analysis, which can be misleading, and argue for the superiority of quantitative methods. We delve into the intricacies of serial correlation and its importance in identifying enduring trends, which are essential for successful trend-following strategies. Through a detailed examination of real versus randomized market data, we demonstrate that a trend's visual appearance is not a reliable indicator of its tradability. The episode goes further to reveal that while numerous price series may visually present as viable for trend-following, only those with a quantifiable bias—verified through rigorous statistical methods—can provide traders with a substantial edge. Our discussion underscores the profound implications of trading on trends backed by actual market bias versus those that are the product of random movements. These insights are indispensable for traders seeking to elevate their strategies from gambling on visual cues to capitalizing on statistically validated trends, making this episode a must-watch for anyone serious about trading in the financial markets. Buy the data randomizing tool: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/algorithmicadvantage/extras https://www.thealgorithmicadvantage.com

Alan Clement, a seasoned trader and strategy developer, shares insights into systematic trading in equity markets. He discusses mean reversion, trend following, and volatility trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of diversification. Alan also highlights the nuances of trading equities, adapting to market conditions, and risk management. He explores building and testing strategies to avoid overfitting, including out-of-sample testing and Monte Carlo simulations.

The financial Markets are in a perpetual state of flux, constantly evolving with changes in technology, shifts in regulatory landscapes, and the dynamic entry and exit of market players, all while business cycles ebb and flow.   In the face of such uncertainty, how do we navigate these turbulent waters? How can we effectively process the barrage of information available? Does the conventional wisdom of "buy and hold" withstand scrutiny when faced with substantial drawdowns of 50% or more? How do we truly maximize returns and minimise draw-downs? Are there secrets to investing hidden in plain sight?   Within the intricate tapestry of the market's daily dance, where buyers and sellers engage in the complex choreography of the free-market system, noise and confusion abound. Yet, amid this chaos, certain traders and investors have thrived over extended periods. They've capitalized on discerning patterns amidst the clamor, leveraging systems and methodologies that exploit fundamental, enduring human behaviors such as fear, greed, and the propensity to follow the crowd...  and follow trends.   There are some time-tested, quantitative processes that were refined by the legendary Chicago traders Rich Dennis and Bill Eckhart and they passed these skills on to a group of budding naïve traders in the 1980s. These traders became known as 'the turtles'. With us today is one of those trainees, who now has a track record that extends many decades, and a new breed of adherents to these principles…   Enter the modern-day "turtles" that adhere to a "classic trend-following" approach. How do they navigate the markets, and what adaptations have they made? What principles guide their actions? Well, what better way to unravel these mysteries than to spend a few days in Sydney with them, which is exactly what we've done, and here we are on beautiful Pittwater Harbour, at the offices of ECCM on Scotland Island, talking 'classic trend following' around the barbie with the legends of the game! …

Today we stepped away from talking specifically about trading strategies and chatted with Linus Nilsson about the database of about 4000+ hedge funds / CTA's that he maintains and makes available to the public. We thought this would be an important discussion because we all want to benchmark ourselves against other expert managers. It's an important aspect of 'setting our expectations' and also 'considering what is achievable'. So while we step away from the excitement of creating robust trading strategies in this episode, many will find it interesting to know about the average returns and statistics of the best funds globally. What kinds of track records are out there? What kinds of funds survive the longest? What kinds of statistical metrics (or qualitative attributes) are best to compare return profiles? What does it take to succeed as a new fund? What are the hurdles? There's a lot that can be done with the raw data that NilssonHedge provides and we will deep-dive into that in a follow-up episode. For those who are 'business minded' about their trading, we think you'll enjoy the show. Happy trading & investing. Get in touch with Linus: Web: www.nilssonhedge.com Twitter: @nilssonhedge Linked In: www.linkedin.com/in/nilssonhedge/

David Bush, a trader of mega-cap US equities, talks about mean reversion and risk management. He discusses a specific strategy that profits and hedges positions during difficult regimes. David, an accomplished musician, shares the relationship between music and trading. The podcast explores different types of systems in a long short equity strategy, multiple sub strategies within a meta system, and the use of non-price data in market analysis. David also mentions his interest in genetic algorithmic strategies and analyzing cryptocurrency market setups.

Learn from the best & make it even better! Another fascinating show with Art Holly who has decades of quant trading wisdom on offer. Art has a rich experience as a Portfolio Manager but also as an Allocator and brings over 30 years of incredible experience to the table. His strategies are best in class, diversified across instruments, time-frames and methodologies. He's an outlier hunter seeking positive skew. He doesn't want to warehouse risk, and he incorporates fundamental data & market profile in his algorithms in a very unique fashion. His all-weather portfolio has truly stood the test of time and he shares his philosophy, his 4 strategies, his 'logic-first' mentality and so much more. When you've been doing this from the early days, who needs to back-test? Get in touch with Art on X @artjholly3 & on Linked In www.linkedin.com/in/art-holly

A fascinating discussion with Marc Malek of Conquest Capital Partners that covers: short term trend following; diversified strategies; regime based dynamic strategy allocation; building behavioral & logic driven models; being an early adopter of new ideas; the mathematics of positioning tanks on a battlefield; breaking the HKD peg; replication & much, much more. "If you can't explain your models in plain English to a reasonably intelligent person in 5 minutes or less then we don't want it."

Two quants from Takahe Capital discuss their funds, strategies, and trading philosophy. They talk about automation and scalability in trading, creating and selling indices, volatility control, the Bitcoin basis trade, structural changes in European dividend index futures, trading strategies and market efficiency, and their experiences with trend following.

Moritz Seibert & Moritz Heiden, quants from Takahe capital, discuss their trend following strategies, philosophy, practical tips, their journey into systematic trading, love for outdoor activities, influences on trading, background in delta hatching, the role of volatility in strategies, issues with volatility targeting.

Richard Brennan, an expert in systematic trend following, discusses the application of the scientific method in economics and the complexity of trading. He emphasizes the importance of strategy creation, testing, and deployment in trend following, as well as maximizing diversification and using AI in trading projects. Additionally, he explores the use of chat GPT for selecting uncorrelated markets and building enduring strategies through algorithmic portfolio construction.