020 - Perry Kaufman - A Wealth of Experience: Trading Diversified Strategies in Futures & Equities
Jul 7, 2024
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Perry Kaufman shares insights on trading diversified strategies in futures & equities, emphasizing the need for longer calculation periods and advanced risk management. He discusses the differences between trading many markets versus concentrating on a few and the critical role of ranking candidates based on recent system performance. The podcast explores the unique perspective of trading strategies in both futures and stocks, highlighting the importance of system performance over market conditions for profitability.
Technology advancements impact trend following strategies' effectiveness.
Diversification in trading futures vs. equities requires different approaches.
Ranking process based on recent system performance is crucial in portfolio management.
Deep dives
Kauffman's Extensive Trading Experience and Valuable Insights
Kauffman brings over 15 years of successful trading experience, emphasizing the importance of learning from seasoned experts in the field. His book, 'Trading Systems and Methods', offers a comprehensive guide for traders and investors, covering system level, portfolio level, and essential grounding theory. Kauffman's introduction of the Kauffman efficiency ratio showcases his innovative contributions to the industry.
Portfolio Construction and Risk Management Strategies
Kauffman's approach to portfolio construction involves utilizing trend-following strategies for both futures and stocks. He ranks and selects top performing stocks based on system performance rather than market price correlation, emphasizing the significance of trade outcomes for system application. His risk management techniques focus on tracking daily returns and stability to manage portfolio risk effectively.
Asset Class Allocation and Risk Reduction
Kauffman's allocation strategy involves adjusting leverage based on the correlation of asset classes. By reducing leverage in highly correlated sectors like fixed income and increasing exposure in less correlated sectors, he aims to balance risk within his portfolio. Kauffman's methodical approach to selection and risk management showcases his commitment to optimizing trading strategies.
Effectiveness of Moving Averages in Stock and Bond Trading
Moving averages are found to be effective in stock trading when applied over periods like 30 to 120 days. For bonds, virtually every moving average tends to work. Funds often allocate more to interest rates due to their historical profitability. A method discussed involves using multiple indicators, like 30, 60, 90 days, rather than focusing solely on the best performer, to achieve an average reliable result.
Utilizing Volatility in Portfolio Management for Futures Trading
In futures trading, managing target volatility is crucial for adjusting portfolio positions based on daily volatility levels. Traders adjust positions to maintain a set volatility target, scaling up in low volatility and reducing in high volatility markets. Adapting position sizes based on portfolio-wide volatility helps optimize risk and returns, especially in low volatility markets that gradually trend upward.
In this absolute cracker of an interview, Perry highlighted how increased market participation and technological advancements have influenced the efficacy of trend following strategies. He also provided insights into the shifting dynamics of the market, emphasizing the need for longer calculation periods and more sophisticated risk management practices as the markets mature and become more volatile.
Perry's view on trading many markets versus concentrating on only a few involves weighing the benefits of diversification against the potential for higher returns through focused trading. Rich and I tend to think that there are ways of having your cake and eating it too – whereby there are ways to expand your universe while increasing profits. However, there are significant differences to the approach whether trading futures or equities, and this became a key part of the discussion.
Futures offer market diversification and leverage that is very different to equities. Stocks, on the other hand, consist of an enormous universe, making a ‘relative’ selection (and ranking) more necessary.
Interestingly though, Perry essentially trades the same strategies on both futures and stocks. The absolutely critical part of Perry’s strategies, in both the futures and stocks, is the nature of his ranking process. He effectively rotates candidates in and out of the portfolio based on their recent system performance. Importantly, ranked by their absolute returns only, and not any risk-adjusted method. Tune in for a deep dive on all his models, his portfolio construction & risk management process!
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