The Algorithmic Advantage

Finishing our little mini-series on shorter-term futures trading we talk to Andrea Unger and happily inject some click-bait in the form of gloating about his 672% return in a single year when he won the World Trading Competition. Naturally, we know that this kind of return is generated by specifically trying to win the comp, and taking on the associated risks! If you've been asleep the first two guests in this series were Bob Pardo and Kevin Davey. Between the three we've got a complete masterclass in shorter-term, diversified and responsive futures trading!Andrea Unger is actually a four-time World Trading Champion, and here he offers a comprehensive and structured approach to quantitative trading in futures markets, emphasizing practical methods for strategy design, robustness testing, portfolio construction, and system deployment.www.thealgorithmicadvantage.com

Kevin’s systematic approach melds rigorous quantitative testing with pragmatic risk management and monthly maintenance protocols. By enforcing single-pass optimizations, extensive real-time validation, and lean portfolio sizes, he constructs a robust trading framework designed for consistency and longevity. Advanced traders can draw from his workshop principles to refine strategy design, navigate common back-testing pitfalls, and build diversified, adaptive portfolios capable of weathering market uncertainties.Topics: Strategy Design PrinciplesWalk Forward Analysis: Best Practices and Common MistakesRobustness Testing Beyond Walk ForwardTech Stack and Automation ToolsPortfolio Construction ProcessMonthly Maintenance and RebalancingRisk Management and Psychological PreparednessPerformance Benchmarks and Goals

In the cutthroat world of algorithmic futures trading, a structured process is non-negotiable. Kevin Davey’s approach—defining objectives, rigorous validation via walk-forward and Monte Carlo methods, live incubation, and proactive portfolio management—offers advanced quantitative traders a framework to thrive in. By blending engineering precision with market adaptability, his methodology underscores that success lies not just in the strategies themselves, but in the disciplined process behind them.www.thealgorithmicadvantage.com

Many trading strategies are developed using extensive historical data to calibrate model parameters. However, this process often leads to over-optimization, where the strategy is too finely tuned to past market conditions. Two things stand out:Noise vs. Signal: Financial markets inherently contain a high degree of randomness. A model that fits historical data exceptionally well may simply be capturing random fluctuations rather than a persistent trading edge. Regime Shifts: Markets change over time. A strategy that works during a bull market might not perform in a bear market or during periods of high volatility.Enter Walk-Forward Analysis. It's also not easy, but if done right can create an incredible method to solve for over-fitting in a systematic manner, leading to:Realistic Performance Metrics: By testing on entirely out-of-sample data (not just one out of sample period), traders can obtain performance metrics that are closer to what would be experienced in real-world trading. Adaptive Strategies: Walk forward analysis inherently forces a re-optimization process. This means the model is continually updated to reflect more recent market conditions, thereby reducing the risk that it’s built solely on outdated historical data. Robust Parameter Selection: Instead of selecting a single “optimal” parameter set that may be an outlier, traders can identify a plateau of robust parameters that perform consistently across multiple windows. This approach minimizes the risk of curve fitting, ensuring the strategy’s parameters are not overly sensitive to one specific dataset.

Bob Pardo, a veteran trader with decades of experience and a pioneer in walk-forward analysis, shares invaluable insights into trading strategies. He discusses the pitfalls of over-optimization and the importance of adaptability in trading methods. Pardo delves into the evolution of his XT99 strategy and how market dynamics shape trading decisions. He emphasizes the critical role of extensive data in developing robust intraday trading strategies and the significance of diversification in futures trading. Expect practical tips and philosophical insights that resonate with aspiring traders.

Rob Carver, a seasoned trader and author of systematic trading books, shares his expertise on crafting a diversified futures portfolio. He delves into crucial strategies like market selection, dynamic optimization, and the significance of capital allocation. Carver also discusses innovative methods for diversifying with limited funds, the evolution of trading practices, and the importance of volatility adjustments for effective trading. His insights on balancing risk and managing costs provide a treasure trove for traders eager to master futures.

Building Better Strategies with Good Science It was strangely comforting talking to Ernie Chan. Whilst I was completely out of my depth talking about AI and Machine Learning, I came away broadly reinforced in my own belief that great trading still requires a human touch, and that the best niche's in the market are best discovered by applying a certain kind of wisdom, experience and competitive approach. The machine learning techniques and computer power needed to make them work are, however, quickly catching up, so how long we have is anyone's guess. For now, however, even Ernie is on the same page: that causal strategies (ones you can say 'why' they work) are still superior, more robust, easier to tweak if they should begin to decay. Furthermore, diversification across strategy types is key, merging long and short vol strategies, diversifying between trend and mean reversion. Avoiding over-fitting these strategies is best done by applying the scientific method: create a hypothesis of what should work in the market, then try to invalidate it with a logical analysis of the data. Well, that's nicely validating for my approach, so I'm happy. More detail / notes over at www.thealgorithmicadvantage.com

PJ Sutherland, a portfolio manager at Sutherland Capital Management, shares his expertise in short-term equities trading, focusing on mean reversion and trend-following strategies. He discusses the balance between emotional trading and data-driven decision-making. Insights into the importance of position sizing are shared, especially from the meme stock craze. Sutherland emphasizes the synergy between mean reversion and trend strategies to mitigate risks and enhance trading success. He also touches on the emotional challenges traders face and the need for tailored trading engines.

Wayne Himelsein, the President and CIO of Logica Capital Advisors, specializes in long volatility options trading strategies. He discusses the balance of systematic rigor with human oversight in trading. Wayne explains his gross long volatility approach, focusing on full protection during market downturns. He also highlights the importance of navigating realized and unrealized volatility, and the psychological aspects of market behavior. Wayne offers practical tips for new options traders, emphasizing foundational knowledge and strategic adaptability.

Jason Buck, Founder and CIO of Mutiny Funds, sheds light on the innovative 'Cockroach Portfolio' strategy designed to thrive in diverse market conditions. He emphasizes the blend of defensive and offensive tactics for robust, long-term capital growth. Buck discusses the importance of adaptability and volatility management, grounding his insights in risk mitigation principles. He also navigates complex trading strategies and stresses the significance of education for investors in understanding market intricacies while avoiding common pitfalls.