The Downballot

David Nir & David Beard
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Nov 9, 2023 • 48min

Abortion powers Democrats to huge election night

Just one word explains why Democrats had such a massive election night on Tuesday: abortion. On the newest episode of The Downballot, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap all the top races through the lens of reproductive rights, which continue to motivate Democrats and even win over a key swath of Republican voters. Nowhere was that more evident than in Ohio, which voted to enshrine the right to an abortion into the state constitution by a double-digit margin, despite countless GOP attempts to derail the effort.Abortion also played a key role in Kentucky, where Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won another term by making his Republican opponent answer for his total opposition to the procedure despite the state's deep-red hue. It was central as well in Virginia, where Democrats won complete control of the legislature after GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin dared them to oppose his proposed 15-week ban. And it came up again and again in swingy Pennsylvania, which saw Democrat Dan McCaffery win a key seat on the state Supreme Court over a far-right opponent. Plus: How the suburbs continue to slip away from the GOP's grasp.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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Nov 2, 2023 • 47min

Must-watch races on election night

Election Day is finally here! Joining us on "The Downballot" this week to preview all the key contests is Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer, who has the goods on races big and small. Singer kicks us off by getting us up to speed on the battles for governor in Kentucky and Mississippi, two conservative Southern states where it's Republicans who are acting worried. Then it's on to major fights in Pennsylvania, where a vacant state Supreme Court seat is in play, and Ohio, where an amendment to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution is on the ballot.Singer also highlights a pair of bellwether legislative districts in Virginia, where both chambers are up for grabs, and then it's on to some lesser-known—but still exceedingly important—races further down the ballot. Several are also taking place in swingy Pennsylvania, including a critical contest that will determine who controls election administration in a major county in the Philadelphia suburbs. Democrats will also be hoping for a bounce-back in the county executive's race in Long Island's Suffolk County, an area that swung hard to Republicans last year.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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Oct 26, 2023 • 53min

Who the f@&$ is Mike Johnson?

Mike who? House Republicans have managed to elevate someone so obscure to the speakership that even we scarcely know who he is. But that's why we're devoting this week's episode of "The Downballot" to exposing Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson and his crazy, weird, extreme views. Johnson voted to overturn the 2020 election, supports a nationwide abortion ban, and voted to shut down the government just last month—and he won unanimously, meaning vulnerable Republicans now own all that, too. Plus, Johnson has zero track record when it comes to one of the House speaker's most important duties to his party: raising tons of money. How long before he starts pissing his caucus off?We're also joined this week by Amanda Litman, the co-founder of Run for Something, which is devoted to encouraging young, diverse progressives to seek local office. Her group just launched a new project specifically targeting school board races, an enormous battleground that gets far too little attention. Litman tells us how Run for Something recruits candidates and advises them on the challenges unique to school board elections, including the importance of retail campaigning and how to push back against attacks from Moms for Liberty-type extremists.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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Oct 19, 2023 • 36min

Meet the House GOP's worst enemy: The House GOP

Why do vulnerable House Republicans keep voting for a sure-loser speaker candidate who opposes all their priorities and might just drown them at the ballot box? Beats us! But we just can't resist a delicious GOP disaster on this week's episode of "The Downballot." David Valadao voted to impeach Trump—and also supports Jim Jordan, known insurrectionist. Brian Fitzpatrick represents a heavily Ukrainian district—and also supports Jim Jordan, known Putinist. And there are many more like them. Make it make sense! Well, we shall try our best.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard are also joined by Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer to recap the (dismal) results of Louisiana's gubernatorial election. The Davids then dissect the GOP's new ultra-extreme gerrymanders in North Carolina before discussing a welcome poll on Ohio's abortion amendment and very heartening developments in Poland, where pro-democracy forces just ousted the country's far-right authoritarian government.It's also the end of the quarter, so we've published charts rounding up all of the new federal fundraising reports for both the House and the Senate.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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Oct 12, 2023 • 44min

The race for the House in a post-McCarthy world w/ Jeff Singer

While the House continues to be in crisis from the fall of Kevin McCarthy and the Republican Conference’s inability to unite around a new candidate, the 2024 Congressional races are well underway. Daily Kos Elections’ own Jeff Singer joins us to run through some of the notable developments in the most competitive races, including George Santos’s ongoing legal drama and Nancy Mace’s strange theatrics.Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also preview the first round of the Louisiana governor’s race, taking place this Saturday, October 14. They then discuss the new voting restrictions that North Carolina Republicans passed into law over Governor Cooper’s veto and review the new Alabama congressional map that a three judge panel decided will be used for the rest of the decade.Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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Oct 5, 2023 • 53min

Will McCarthy’s fall affect the 2024 battle for the House? w/ 538’s Nathaniel Rakich

It’s been an unprecedented week in politics as (now former) Speaker Kevin McCarthy was booted out of the Speaker’s chair. 538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins us to break down the fallout, including how it might affect the 2024 race for the House and if McCarthy might resign and trigger a special election for his Congressional seat. We also talk about the good special election trends for Democrats this year and how to incorporate polling into your thinking about elections.Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also cover the passing of California Senator Dianne Feinstein and her appointed replacement, EMILY’s List’s Laphonza Butler. They also discuss the return of a number of 2022 GOP losers, including Arizona’s Kari Lake, Michigan’s James Craig, and Ohio’s J.R. Majewski, all of whom are announcing new campaigns for 2024.Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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Sep 28, 2023 • 55min

Can Democrats win back the Virginia House? w/ Blue Virginia's Lowell Feld

The Virginia House flipped to Democrats in 2019 and back to Republicans in 2021. Can Democrats win the three seats they need to regain control of the chamber? Blue Virginia's Lowell Feld joins us to run through the key races in both the Virginia Senate and House and how Democrats can win both chambers this November. We also look to 2024 and discuss some key announcements in competitive Virginia Congressional races.Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also cover the huge news out of New Jersey, where Sen. Bob Menendez has been indicted (again) and this time most state and national Democrats are not standing by him. We also discuss the long-awaited entrance of hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick into the Pennsylvania Senate race for Republicans; the Supreme Court rejecting Alabama's long shot attempt to prevent a new Congressional map; and the gerrymandered state legislative maps Ohioans will be using for at least one cycle.Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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Sep 21, 2023 • 51min

HAIL MOLECH! Massive Dem win in New Hampshire + redistricting w/Stephen Wolf

We did it! And it's all thanks to Molech! We're devoting this week's episode of "The Downballot" to giving praise to the dark god himself after New Hampshire Democrat Hal Rafter won a critical special election over Republican Jim Guzofski, the loony toons pastor who once ranted that liberals make "blood sacrifices to their god Molech." Democrats are now just one seat away from erasing the GOP's majority in the state House and should feel good about their chances in the Granite State next year. Republicans, meanwhile, can only stew bitterly that they lack the grassroots fundraising energy provided by Daily Kos, which endorsed Rafter and raised the bulk of his campaign funds via small donations.We're also joined by Daily Kos Elections' own Stephen Wolf to update us on the ongoing litigation over Alabama's congressional map. In an unusual move, the court's appointed expert invited the public to submit their own proposals as he prepares replacement maps, so Wolf took him up on the offer and drew two plans of his own. Wolf describes those plans in detail and sings the praises of Dave's Redistricting App, the invaluable free tool that has allowed ordinary citizens to participate in the redistricting process in ways never before possible.Link: “Campaign for Choice: Inside the 1990 effort that’s protecting Nevada abortion access today,” Nevada Independent.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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Sep 14, 2023 • 37min

The GOP's biggest election-fraud scandal returns

What do you do if you're associated with one of the biggest election fraud scandals in recent memory? If you're Republican Mark Harris, you try running for office again! On this week's episode of "The Downballot," we revisit the absolutely wild story of Harris' 2018 campaign for Congress, when one of his consultants orchestrated a conspiracy to illegally collect blank absentee ballots from voters and then had his team fill them out before "casting" them. Officials wound up tossing the results of this almost-stolen election, but now Harris is back with a new bid for the House—and he won't shut up about his last race, even blaming Democrats for the debacle.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss a late entrant into the race North Carolina governor; why Republicans are struggling to recruit in Ohio now that they can't gerrymander their congressional map again; how a Freedom Caucus member has bizarrely emerged as a voice of sanity within the GOP—and why it'll likely doom him; Mitt Romney's retirement in Utah; and proposed maps that our Daily Kos Elections colleague Stephen Wolf submitted to the federal court in Alabama that's about to impose new congressional districts.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe
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Sep 7, 2023 • 36min

GOP Senate candidates keep having this one weird flaw

Why does it seem like Republicans have such a hard time recruiting Senate candidates who actually live in the states they want to run in? We're discussing this strange but persistent phenomenon on this week's edition of "The Downballot." The latest example is former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, who's been spending his time in Florida since leaving the House in 2015, but he's not the only one. Republican Senate hopefuls in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Montana, and Wisconsin all have questionable ties to their home states—a problem that Democrats have gleefully exploited in recent years. (Remember Dr. Oz? Of course you do.)Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap special election primaries in Utah, where an anti-Trump Republican might win, and Rhode Island, which saw something of an upset on the Democratic side. They highlight an unusual ad from Gov. Andy Beshear emphasizing an issue Kentucky Democrats rarely discuss—abortion—as well as unexpected spending by Republicans to attack the leading Democrat in Louisiana's race for governor. And they run down developments in major redistricting cases in Alabama and Florida that both saw new rulings in favor of Black voting rights.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

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