The Downballot

Every political junkie consumes polls, but how much do you know about focus groups? We wanted to learn more—much more—about this critical campaign tool, so we invited Margie Omero of GBAO Strategies to join us on this week's episode of The Downballot. Omero gets into the nitty-gritty to tell us how focus groups are actually convened, the best ways to moderate them, and what participants have been saying about abortion ever since the Dobbs decision. Those views were key to understanding why last year's red wave narrative was flawed and shed light on what we can expect in 2024.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dissect the big new redistricting decision from New York's top court, which just ordered the state to use a new congressional map next year. The Davids explain why the court ruled as it did and game out what might happen next. As with so much in New York politics, the picture is cloudy, but Democrats stand to benefit—though don't expect an extreme gerrymander like the infamous "baconmander."Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

It's not every day that the House expels one of its own, so of course we're talking about George Santos getting the boot on this week's episode of The Downballot. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss the deep fracture inside the GOP that the expulsion vote, then handicap the special election to replace Congress' newest ex-member. They also dive into the absolutely wild New York Times report detailing how former Rep. Tom Suozzi had to grovel before Gov. Kathy Hochul to earn her approval to run in that February election.The Davids spend some more time examining House Republican dysfunction as they recount the departures of two of the party's top leaders, Kevin McCarthy and Patrick McHenry. They also explain why the results of a legislative special election in Miami mean good news for Democrats before jumping into redistricting updates for both Florida and Georgia, then wrap up with a surprisingly positive ruling in favor of voting rights in North Carolina.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Target Smart's Tom Bonier joins to discuss the recent poor polling for Democrats. They explore balancing the polls with positive election results. Additionally, they talk about evolving early voting data and Sen. Sherrod Brown's campaign. House retirements, Michigan's 8th district, state house special elections, and upcoming abortion rights measures are also discussed.

We talk about North Carolina non-stop on "The Downballot," so it's only natural that our guest on this week's episode is Anderson Clayton, the new chair of the state Democratic Party. Clayton made headlines when she became the youngest state party chair anywhere in the country at the age of 25, and the story of how she got there is an inspiring one. But what she's doing—and plans to do—is even more compelling. Her focus is on rebuilding the party infrastructure from the county level up, with the aim of reconnecting with rural Black voters who've too often been sidelined and making young voters feel like they have a political home. Plus: her long-term plan to win back the state Supreme Court.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, turn to the avalanche of political developments that have followed last week's off-year elections, with big new candidate announcements in New Jersey's Senate race and Virginia's 2025 contest for governor. They also finally get to discuss the unusual Democratic primary unfolding in the nation's newest Black-majority House seat in Alabama. And then there are all the retirements to recap! So, so many retirements.Find Daily Kos Elections' new 2024 calendar right here. Transcript to come. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Just one word explains why Democrats had such a massive election night on Tuesday: abortion. On the newest episode of The Downballot, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap all the top races through the lens of reproductive rights, which continue to motivate Democrats and even win over a key swath of Republican voters. Nowhere was that more evident than in Ohio, which voted to enshrine the right to an abortion into the state constitution by a double-digit margin, despite countless GOP attempts to derail the effort.Abortion also played a key role in Kentucky, where Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won another term by making his Republican opponent answer for his total opposition to the procedure despite the state's deep-red hue. It was central as well in Virginia, where Democrats won complete control of the legislature after GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin dared them to oppose his proposed 15-week ban. And it came up again and again in swingy Pennsylvania, which saw Democrat Dan McCaffery win a key seat on the state Supreme Court over a far-right opponent. Plus: How the suburbs continue to slip away from the GOP's grasp.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Election Day is finally here! Joining us on "The Downballot" this week to preview all the key contests is Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer, who has the goods on races big and small. Singer kicks us off by getting us up to speed on the battles for governor in Kentucky and Mississippi, two conservative Southern states where it's Republicans who are acting worried. Then it's on to major fights in Pennsylvania, where a vacant state Supreme Court seat is in play, and Ohio, where an amendment to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution is on the ballot.Singer also highlights a pair of bellwether legislative districts in Virginia, where both chambers are up for grabs, and then it's on to some lesser-known—but still exceedingly important—races further down the ballot. Several are also taking place in swingy Pennsylvania, including a critical contest that will determine who controls election administration in a major county in the Philadelphia suburbs. Democrats will also be hoping for a bounce-back in the county executive's race in Long Island's Suffolk County, an area that swung hard to Republicans last year.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Mike who? House Republicans have managed to elevate someone so obscure to the speakership that even we scarcely know who he is. But that's why we're devoting this week's episode of "The Downballot" to exposing Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson and his crazy, weird, extreme views. Johnson voted to overturn the 2020 election, supports a nationwide abortion ban, and voted to shut down the government just last month—and he won unanimously, meaning vulnerable Republicans now own all that, too. Plus, Johnson has zero track record when it comes to one of the House speaker's most important duties to his party: raising tons of money. How long before he starts pissing his caucus off?We're also joined this week by Amanda Litman, the co-founder of Run for Something, which is devoted to encouraging young, diverse progressives to seek local office. Her group just launched a new project specifically targeting school board races, an enormous battleground that gets far too little attention. Litman tells us how Run for Something recruits candidates and advises them on the challenges unique to school board elections, including the importance of retail campaigning and how to push back against attacks from Moms for Liberty-type extremists.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Why do vulnerable House Republicans keep voting for a sure-loser speaker candidate who opposes all their priorities and might just drown them at the ballot box? Beats us! But we just can't resist a delicious GOP disaster on this week's episode of "The Downballot." David Valadao voted to impeach Trump—and also supports Jim Jordan, known insurrectionist. Brian Fitzpatrick represents a heavily Ukrainian district—and also supports Jim Jordan, known Putinist. And there are many more like them. Make it make sense! Well, we shall try our best.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard are also joined by Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer to recap the (dismal) results of Louisiana's gubernatorial election. The Davids then dissect the GOP's new ultra-extreme gerrymanders in North Carolina before discussing a welcome poll on Ohio's abortion amendment and very heartening developments in Poland, where pro-democracy forces just ousted the country's far-right authoritarian government.It's also the end of the quarter, so we've published charts rounding up all of the new federal fundraising reports for both the House and the Senate.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

While the House continues to be in crisis from the fall of Kevin McCarthy and the Republican Conference’s inability to unite around a new candidate, the 2024 Congressional races are well underway. Daily Kos Elections’ own Jeff Singer joins us to run through some of the notable developments in the most competitive races, including George Santos’s ongoing legal drama and Nancy Mace’s strange theatrics.Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also preview the first round of the Louisiana governor’s race, taking place this Saturday, October 14. They then discuss the new voting restrictions that North Carolina Republicans passed into law over Governor Cooper’s veto and review the new Alabama congressional map that a three judge panel decided will be used for the rest of the decade.Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

It’s been an unprecedented week in politics as (now former) Speaker Kevin McCarthy was booted out of the Speaker’s chair. 538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins us to break down the fallout, including how it might affect the 2024 race for the House and if McCarthy might resign and trigger a special election for his Congressional seat. We also talk about the good special election trends for Democrats this year and how to incorporate polling into your thinking about elections.Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also cover the passing of California Senator Dianne Feinstein and her appointed replacement, EMILY’s List’s Laphonza Butler. They also discuss the return of a number of 2022 GOP losers, including Arizona’s Kari Lake, Michigan’s James Craig, and Ohio’s J.R. Majewski, all of whom are announcing new campaigns for 2024.Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show—new episodes every Thursday! You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe