The Downballot

Holy crap, what an amazing night! Where do we even begin this week's episode of The Downballot? Well, we know exactly where: abortion. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap Tuesday's extraordinary results, starting with a clear-eyed examination of the issue that animated Democrats as never before—and that pundits got so badly wrong. They also discuss candidate quality (still really important!), Democratic meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, actually), and "soft" Biden disapprovers (lots of them voted for Democrats).The Davids then catalog the uncalled races for Senate and game out what might happen in the House; review the clean sweep for the good guys in five states that had abortion-related measures on the ballot; and finish off with some delicious, gourmet schadenfreude. You won't want to miss out!Episode transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

At long last, the 2022 midterms are almost here! With the battle for the House front and center, we've brought back Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer to give us a window into the key races on a final pre-election episode of The Downballot. Singer discusses a wide range of contests that will offer insight into how the night is going, including top GOP pickup opportunities, second-tier Republican targets, and the seats where Democrats are on offense. And with many vote tallies likely to stretch on for some time, Singer also identifies several bellwether races in states that count quickly.We'll be covering all of these races and many, many more on Tuesday night in our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections and on Twitter. The first polls close at 6 PM ET, so come join us! And of course, we'll recap the action on next week's edition of The Downballot.Transcript is available here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

The 2022 midterms are just around the corner, and you sent us a ton of fantastic questions for The Downballot mailbag episode we promised this week, so we brought on Daily Kos Elections contributing editor Steve Singiser to help us answer them. Among the many topics we cover: which states are likely to report results slowly—and how will those results change over time; the House districts that look like key bellwethers for how the night might go, and which might offer surprises; why and how Democrats make the hard decisions on which races to triage; the top legislative chambers to keep an eye on; and plenty more!A transcript of the episode is available here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

How should we be reading the 2022 polls, in light of shifting margins and past misses? Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen joins us on The Downballot to explain how his firm weights polls to reflect the likely electorate; why Democratic leads in most surveys this year should be treated as smaller than they appear because undecided voters lean heavily anti-Biden; and the surprisingly potent impact abortion has had on moving the needle with voters despite our deep polarization.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dig into the third-quarter fundraising numbers for both Senate and House candidates that show Democrats crushing it; explore the GOP's $1 million infusion into Oklahoma's shockingly competitive race for governor; highlight two new resources from Daily Kos Elections: our candidate guide and our House Vulnerability Index; and explain why the epic Tory meltdown in the U.K. is not likely to lead to early elections.Next week, we’re doing a mailbag episode! Send us all your questions on the midterms and we’ll answer them. You can email us at thedownballot@dailykos.com, or you can find us on Twitter at @DKElections.Episode transcript is available here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Abortion has been the number one topic for campaign ads this year, so we're talking with veteran ad maker Kelly Grace Gibson, the founder of the women-led Stronger Than Comms, about how Democrats are pressing their advantage on this week's edition of The Downballot. Gibson walks us through the nuts and bolts of how ads actually get made; how Democrats have shown unusual message discipline on abortion while simultaneously tailoring their messages to different audiences; and why she has hope for some progressive candidates and ballot measures even in difficult states.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also get medieval on the traditional media for its appalling display of ableism in the wake of John Fetterman's recent NBC interview; recap the absolutely wild goings-on in Los Angeles, where City Council President Nury Martinez just resigned after a racist tirade was caught on tape; dive into the unexpectedly close race for governor in Oklahoma; and highlight a brand-new database from Daily Kos Elections showing how media markets and congressional districts overlap.Episode transcript is available here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

After an erruption of even more scandals among Republican Senate candidates, FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich returns to The Downballot this week to discuss the effect these sorts of scandals can have on competitive races; whether Democrats stand a chance to keep the House; and the different ways pollsters create likely voter models.Co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay also discuss Dr. Oz, puppy killer; the GOP’s hypocrisy regarding Herschel Walker’s ever-growing list of scandals; Texas Attorney General’s Ken Paxton desperate attempts to avoid testifying in an abortion case; and Brazil’s presidential runoff, where former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva remains the favorite despite far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro’s better-than-expected first-round showing.Episode transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Yes, the polls still matter! This week on The Downballot, The Economist's G. Elliott Morris joins us to discuss his new book on polling, Strength in Numbers, including the early history of polling in the form of 19th century straw polls; how we can be smart consumers of polls by placing their uncertainty in context; and the surprises that have stood out in his new model forecasting the 2022 midterms.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on Pennsylvania, where Republican Doug Mastriano has called for "40 days of fasting and prayer" to save his ailing campaign for governor; dig into ad spending numbers that show Democrats airing far more spots because they aren't relying on super PACs; circle back to the J.R. Majewski stolen valor scandal, which prompted the NRCC to cut him loose; and recap the dispiriting results of Italy's general election, which saw the far-right win for the first time since Mussolini.Transcript available here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Since Dobbs, women have registered to vote in unprecedented numbers across the country, and the first person to dig into these stunning trends was TargetSmart CEO Tom Bonier, who's our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot. Bonier explains how his firm gathers data on the electorate; why this surge is likely a leading indicator showing stepped-up enthusiasm among many groups of voters, including women, young people, and people of color; how we know these new registrants disproportionately lean toward Democrats; and what it all might mean for November.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the GOP's shrinking path back to a Senate majority as Republicans abandon Arizona; an appalling "stolen valor" scandal in a key Ohio House race (expect Democratic ads on it soon); a new study indicating that Latino voters overall have not continued to move to the right since 2020; and an awesome new congressional map created by Daily Kos Elections' Daniel Donner that rectifies the common problem of traditional maps that over-emphasize rural red areas and render blue urban districts almost invisible.Transcript available here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Michigan Democrats are defending a narrow 4-3 majority on their state Supreme Court this fall, and one incumbent on the ballot is the fascinating Richard Bernstein, our guest on this week's episode of The Downballot. Bernstein, who made history in 2014 when he became the first blind justice in the court's history, describes his work as a disability rights advocate prior to joining the bench; how voters identified their struggles with his own during his first campaign; and why he wrote such a feisty response last week when a conservative colleague wanted to block an abortion rights measure from going before voters in November.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recount the final primaries of the year, which saw MAGA candidates sweep three congressional races in New Hampshire, much to the consternation of whatever passes for the GOP establishment these days. They also try to understand why on earth Lindsey Graham introduced a 15-week national abortion ban this week, which has some Republicans twisting in knots and others—including several in competitive races—inexplicably joining in.To support Justice Bernstein, please visit JusticeWithJulia.com, where you'll find the slate of state supreme court candidates that Daily Kos has endorsed with actor and activist Julia Louis-Dreyfus.Episode transcript available here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Daily Kos Elections just released a massive new data set that breaks down the results of the 2020 presidential election for every last one of the nation's new congressional districts, so we're dissecting what it all means with longtime DKE writer Stephen Wolf. Wolf explains why these numbers closely predict the outcome of most House elections, how they show the way in which the overall playing field has grown even more tilted toward Republicans, what the most evenly divided district in the country is, and much more.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the fallout from the huge Democratic upset in the special election for Alaska's lone House seat, which has Republicans pointing fingers at one another (but mostly at Sarah Palin); gawk at the Senate GOP's huge problems with money and candidate quality that's led to open feuding at the highest levels of the party; recap the Massachusetts primaries; and preview the final primaries of the year in New Hampshire and Rhode Island.Episode transcript available here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe