The Downballot

Latinos have played an increasingly crucial role in our elections, but Democrats' understanding of these voters has often lagged. This week's guest on "The Downballot" is Carlos Odio, the co-founder of EquisLabs, an organization devoted to rectifying this problem. Odio helps us move away from viewing Latino voters as a monolith and offers a helpful framework for getting to know different subsets of this diverse group. He discusses key findings of Equis' 2022 post-mortem, including why Florida went so wrong and how Democrats can make a course correction. He also explains how Latino voter identity can wind up getting dialed up or down depending on the broader election environment.Host David Nir and guest host Joe Sudbay, meanwhile, dive into Chris Sununu's retirement announcement and why it instantly makes New Hampshire's race for governor a top Democratic target; the Republican shenanigans in Alabama, where lawmakers seem dead-set on ignoring a court order to draw two majority-Black congressional districts; why Democrats will take a new effort to recall several Michigan state representative seriously even if the state GOP is a clown-show; and yet another special election in Wisconsin where Republicans badly underperformed the top of the ticket.Transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Delaware's Sarah McBride already made history once when she became the first openly transgender person elected to a state Senate anywhere in the country in 2020. Now she can do so again in her bid for Congress—and she's joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to discuss her path-breaking campaign. McBride explains how her gender identity helped spur her to run for office in the first place; why she focused on passing paid family and medical leave once in the legislature; and the difference she thinks her presence on Capitol Hill could make in the face of the escalating right-wing assault on the trans community. Stepping aside from politics for a moment, she also offers advice to young trans people encountering an often hostile world.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, discuss why we just saw an avalanche of campaign launches following the July 4 holiday and dig into several of the most important kickoffs. There are bellwether House races in tossup districts like Michigan's 7th, where both parties just landed their preferred candidates, as well as Nebraska's 2nd, where the Democrat who lost a close race last year unexpectedly announced a rematch. There's also the Senate contest in perpetually swingy Nevada, where a former GOP outsider is now the establishment favorite, as well as the open governor's race in Washington, where a former Republican congressman has come out of retirement but faces serious headwinds.Transcript to come. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

America could learn a lot from how other countries elect their leaders! Political science professor Matthew Shugart joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot to explain how a variety of electoral systems around the world operate, as well as his thoughts on which might work well here—and actually improve our democracy. Shugart gets into the weeds on proportional voting, single transferable vote, "decoy lists," and much more. If those terms are new to you, you'll definitely want to listen!This interview originally aired April 19, 2023.Click Here for the transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Ballot measures surged into the spotlight last year thanks to abortion rights, but they've long been a critical tool for enacting positive change. Joining us on this week's episode of "The Downballot" is Kelly Hall, the executive director of the Fairness Project, which has helped pass progressive ballot measures across the country for nearly a decade. Hall tells us how ballot campaigns differ from traditional campaigns, and why stakeholders often spend years debating when and whether to get behind a measure. She also explains why progressive issues often fare better than progressive candidates, and how the Sheriffs' Association and Chobani yogurt helped make Medicaid expansion a reality in deep-red Idaho.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, dissect this week's momentous Supreme Court decision that smacked down a radical right-wing argument that would have greenlit GOP gerrymandering and voter suppression nationwide, including why they're cautiously optimistic that a potential "ticking time bomb" in the ruling won't go off (at least, not to great effect). They also explain why Republicans shouldn't get too excited about landing a supposedly coveted recruit for Montana's Senate race. Finally, they discuss Sarah McBride's path-breaking entry into Delaware's House race, where a victory would make her the first openly trans member of Congress.Transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Joining us on "The Downballot" this week is North Carolina Rep. Wiley Nickel, the first member of Congress to appear on the show! Nickel gives us the blow-by-blow of his unlikely victory that saw him flip an extremely competitive seat from red to blue last year, including how he adjusted when a new map gave him a very different district and why highlighting the extremism of his MAGA-flavored opponent was key to his success. A true election nerd, Nickel tells us which precincts he was tracking on election night that let him know he was going to win—and which fellow House freshman is the one you want to rock out with at a concert.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's awesome primary results in Virginia that spelled the end of the execrable Joe Morrissey's career in the state Senate. What's more, thanks to losses by several other conservative Democratic incumbents, the Democratic caucus will grow more progressive overall next year. But it's not all good news: The Davids tear apart a pair of awful GOP bills just signed by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott aimed at giving Republicans control of elections in the state's largest county—which just so happens to be trending to the left.Transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

There have been sooo many hot takes about the 2022 midterms, which is why we're joined on this week's episode of "The Downballot" by Michael Frias and Hillary Anderson of the progressive data firm Catalist to discuss their data-intensive report on what actually happened. They explain how they marry precinct-level election results with detailed voter files to go far beyond what the polls can tell us. Among the findings: Highly competitive races were much more favorable to Democrats than less-contested ones; Republicans paid a "MAGA tax" by nominating extreme candidates; and non-college white women shifted toward Democrats by notable margins compared to 2020.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also do a deep, deep dive on the many implications of the Supreme Court's shock redistricting ruling in Alabama last week. The Davids explain why the nay-sayers are wrong to minimize the impact of the decision, which will very likely lead to new districts where Black voters can elect their preferred candidates not only in Alabama but also Louisiana, Georgia, and maybe even Texas. They also discuss what those new districts might look like, and how we know.Map links: Alabama | Georgia & LouisianaTranscript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

This week on "The Downballot," we're joined by guest host Joe Sudbay and law professor Quinn Yeargain for a deep dive into major political developments in three states. First up is Arizona, where a key GOP retirement on the Board of Supervisors in jumbo Maricopa County gives Democrats an excellent chance to win their first majority since the 1960s. Then it's on to Arkansas, where citizens are working to overturn a Republican bill that purports to ban "critical race theory" in public schools by qualifying a referendum for the ballot. Finally, we hit Michigan, where Democrats just advanced a measure to have the state add its Electoral College votes to a multistate compact that would elect the president by the national popular vote.Transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Countless progressive organizations seek to engage and mobilize voters, but coordinating those efforts is a mighty task. On this week's episode of "The Downballot," we're joined by Sara Schreiber, the executive director of America Votes, which works with hundreds of partners at the national and state level to deploy the most effective means of urging voters to the polls. Schreiber walks us through how coalitions of like-minded groups are formed and how the work of direct voter contact is divvied up between them. A special focus is on "blue surge" voters—those who, in the Trump era, joined the rolls for the first time—and why ensuring they continue to participate in the political process is the key to progressive victories.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also take stock of recent developments in Pennsylvania and Ohio, two Rust Belt neighbors where Republicans—for once—are breathing a sigh of relief after a pair of disastrous 2022 candidates opted against repeat bids in 2024. They then dive into the extremely belated impeachment of Texas' corrupt attorney general by his fellow Republicans and remind listeners to mark their calendars for a major special election that just got scheduled in New Hampshire.Transcript can be found here. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

How can Democrats win the messaging war? It turns out there's actually a science to it, as strategic communications consultant Anat Shenker-Osorio tells us on this week's episode of "The Downballot." Shenker-Osorio explains how her research shows the importance of treating voters as protagonists; how Democrats can avoid ceding "freedom" to Republicans by emphasizing "freedoms," plural; and why it actually makes sense to call out "MAGA Republicans" (even though, yes, it's all Republicans).Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also break down a major retirement in Delaware, which paves the way for the state to elect its first Black senator, and discuss how the entrance of a prominent candidate in Michigan's Senate race likely means that Democrats will in fact host a genuinely contested primary. It all adds up to the possibility that more Black women will join the Senate in 2025 alone than in all of American history. Finally, the Davids lay out the five-year plan for Democrats to win back the North Carolina Supreme Court and drive a stake into GOP gerrymandering—again.Transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Hell yeah! Democrats and progressives simply crushed it from coast to coast on Tuesday night, so co-hosts David Nir and David Beard are devoting this week's entire episode of "The Downballot" to reveling in all the highlights. At the very top of the list is Jacksonville, where Democrats won the mayor's race for just the second time in three decades—and gave the Florida Democratic Party a much-needed shot in the arm. Republicans also lost the mayor's office in the longtime conservative bastion of Colorado Springs for the first time since the city began holding direct elections for the job 45 years ago.But it doesn't stop there. Democrats held a critical seat in a special election for the Pennsylvania state House to preserve their one-seat majority in the chamber. The party's left flank also had a strong showing in Pittsburgh's Allegheny County, nominating an outspoken progressive for county executive and defeating an anti-reform incumbent for district attorney. New Hampshire Democrats, meanwhile, romped in a special election for their own state House, a positive sign for their chances of taking it back in 2024—if not sooner.Transcript. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe