The Downballot

John Ray, Senior Director of Polling at YouGov Blue, discusses groundbreaking data from a split-sample polling experiment that shows how framing the midterms as a referendum on Republican policies boosts Democratic advantage. Chris Galdieri, a political scientist from St. Anselm College, shares insights on New Hampshire's dynamic Senate race and its implications after Sen. Shaheen's role in ending the government shutdown. Both guests analyze the shifting political landscape and the potential fallout from upcoming elections.

Voters had their first major chance to deliver a verdict on Donald Trump’s second term on Tuesday night, and they issued a rebuke astonishing in its depth and breadth. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard analyze the election from every angle: Just how far did Latino voters move away from the GOP? Why are regular folks so much more inclined to stand up to Trumpism than elite institutions? What does it mean for 2026? And much, much more! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

On the latest episode of Nir & Rupar, our live weekly video show, David Nir of The Downballot and Aaron Rupar of Public Notice preview all of Tuesday’s top elections — and what they might mean for the midterms.If you haven’t yet subscribed to The Downballot, which provides unparalleled coverage of the thousands of critical elections below the presidency, sign up below:David and Aaron discuss:* Why Democrats are on track to win marquee races in Virginia, California, New Jersey, and New York City.* Why you should keep an eye on a pair of unusual special elections in Georgia as a possible bellwether for next year.* Why it’s so important to pay attention to the margin of victory, not just who wins or loses.And much more! Viewers also asked great questions about some lesser-watched races that we were delighted to answer.The Downballot will also be hosting an election night livestream covering all the returns on Tuesday night, starting at 7 PM ET, so be sure to tune back in then! The easiest way to participate is by downloading the free Substack app.Nir & Rupar will be back next week to recap the results on Friday at 2 PM ET! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Election Day is finally here, so that means we’re previewing all of the top races on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast! Naturally, we check in on the marquee contests in California, New Jersey, and Virginia, but we also highlight some lesser-watched elections happening in places like Georgia, Maine, and Pennsylvania. And be sure to join us for our election night livestream with G. Elliott Morris of Strength In Numbers on Tuesday when the first polls close at 7 PM ET! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Democrats have the chance to pull off a huge upset in an upcoming special election in Tennessee, so we invited one of the best-known political analysts in the state to join us on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast to give us the inside scoop: Justin Kanew, founder of the Tennessee Holler. Kanew, who ran for the previous version of the 7th District, explains how the district has changed since his campaign and tells us what Democrat Aftyn Behn needs to do to win over the conservative-leaning voters she’ll need in order to prevail.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also dig into North Carolina’s latest Republican gerrymander, which is even more extreme than their last map. Can Democrat Don Davis survive despite the GOP’s effort to target him? Which district might he run for? And why can’t Gov. Josh Stein veto the new map? We answer all these questions and more. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Looking to see more “fightback” from Democrats? It’s happening all the time—at the state level. Joining us on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast is Gaby Goldstein, the founder of State Futures, a new organization devoted to organizing Democratic state lawmakers. Gaby explains how her group fills a major infrastructure gap by helping Democrats share their best ideas for legislation, including new laws to protect labor rights and voting rights, all aimed at fighting back—vigorously—against Donald Trump.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also check in on two New England Senate primaries that experienced major shakeups this week. In Maine, establishment favorite Janet Mills has acknowledged concerns about her age as she seeks to take on Susan Collins, but the Democratic primary offers a perfect “shakedown cruise” before the ultimate battle. And in Massachusetts, Seth Moulton just issued a generational challenge to Sen. Ed Markey, but the incumbent’s liberal bona fides will be hard to match. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

All 100 seats in the Virginia House are up next month, but Democrats think they’re in a strong position to expand their narrow majority. Joining us on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast to explain why is Del. Dan Helmer, who heads up his caucus’ campaign arm.Helmer points to the pain Virginia’s large federal workforce has experienced at Republican hands—thanks to DOGE and now the shutdown—and notes that Democrats have recruited candidates in every district for the first time in living memory. He also highlights the districts that Democrats are defending as well as the much larger number of GOP-held seats they’re targeting.Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard, meanwhile, recap Tuesday’s primaries in Tennessee’s vacant 7th Congressional District and explore how and why Democrats just might be able to pull off an upset despite the seat’s strong conservative lean. They also dive into the GOP’s Senate primary in Texas, where a new entrant threatens to make life even more miserable for the Republican establishment—and maybe himself, too. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Rob Sand may be the last remaining Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, but as he wages a bid for governor, he lays out a compelling case for why the state is purpler than you might think on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast.Sand tells us about the massive lottery scandal he busted, which thrust him onto the national radar; how he hung on to win reelection as auditor by just 3,000 votes in 2022, even as all his fellow Democrats lost; and why Iowans are especially fed up after a decade of one-party rule, giving him an opening next year. He also shares his love of cartograms—those maps that depict population rather than area. After all, land doesn’t vote! Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Polling is more difficult than ever, particularly in a city as complicated and diverse as New York. Adam Carlson, founding partner at Zenith Research, joins us to discuss how he conducted a detailed poll of the New York City mayor’s race and how he views the state of that race now. We also get his take on the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races as well as Prop 50 in California and take a peek at 2026.Host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay discuss the current moves to gerrymander Kansas and how that might launch a serious Democratic challenger into the Senate race there. They also discuss the Wisconsin governor’s race, where a hardline conservative Republican has jumped in and the D.C. delegate race, where Eleanor Holmes Norton has her first serious challenger in years. Get full access to The Downballot at www.the-downballot.com/subscribe

Myles Bugbee, founder of Persuasion & Pixels and a political digital advertising expert, reveals how campaigns are losing money to middlemen in the digital ad world. He shares insights on maximizing ad spend efficiency and highlights the importance of transparency in programmatic buying. Bugbee emphasizes steps campaigns can take to avoid wastage and discusses the current dynamics in Republican and Democratic strategies. The conversation also touches on the candidacy of Tejano star Bobby Pulido and other political shifts in Georgia.