The Downballot The inside scoop on The Downballot's new polling
Nov 13, 2025
John Ray, Senior Director of Polling at YouGov Blue, discusses groundbreaking data from a split-sample polling experiment that shows how framing the midterms as a referendum on Republican policies boosts Democratic advantage. Chris Galdieri, a political scientist from St. Anselm College, shares insights on New Hampshire's dynamic Senate race and its implications after Sen. Shaheen's role in ending the government shutdown. Both guests analyze the shifting political landscape and the potential fallout from upcoming elections.
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Make Midterms A GOP Referendum
- Emphasize making the midterms a referendum on Republican control to persuade independents.
- Also address weaknesses in the Democratic brand so long-term messaging remains viable.
Economic Anger Still Dominates Voters
- Voters remain highly concerned about the cost of living and economy, which reshapes midterm dynamics.
- Early 2025 optimism faded and economic anger returned to levels seen before 2024 midterms.
Run More Framing Experiments
- Conduct more split-sample polling to confirm framing effects and probe underlying causes.
- Test whether shifts come from reminding independents of stakes or from weak party brand recognition.
