The Downballot The inside scoop on The Downballot's new polling
Nov 13, 2025
John Ray, Senior Director of Polling at YouGov Blue, discusses groundbreaking data from a split-sample polling experiment that shows how framing the midterms as a referendum on Republican policies boosts Democratic advantage. Chris Galdieri, a political scientist from St. Anselm College, shares insights on New Hampshire's dynamic Senate race and its implications after Sen. Shaheen's role in ending the government shutdown. Both guests analyze the shifting political landscape and the potential fallout from upcoming elections.
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Referendum Wording Boosts Democratic Edge
- Wording the generic ballot as a referendum on GOP control boosted Democratic margin from +3 to about +6 overall.
- The effect was largest among independents, who swung much more strongly against Republican control.
Nonpartisans Drive Framing Effects
- Partisans rarely change their vote based on wording; the biggest movement comes from nonpartisan or less-engaged voters.
- Independents are the demographic most likely to absorb framing cues and shift toward voting against GOP control.
Make Midterms A GOP Referendum
- Emphasize making the midterms a referendum on Republican control to persuade independents.
- Also address weaknesses in the Democratic brand so long-term messaging remains viable.
