Eurodollar University

To get the rest of the conversation, become a Eurodollar University member and/or DDA subscriber. We've got unadvertised sales available that will allow you access to all the EDU content, including the the full hour-plus with Ken here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Eurodollar University's conversations w/Ken McElroyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityThe more they tell us how great everything is, the more you know it isn't. Americans like their compatriots from around the world know something isn't right. We've seen this kind of divergence from "elite" opinion, descriptions, even mainstream labor data before. Long and silent depression. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityYou might be amazed at just how much Chinese authorities have tried to stabilize their system. If you knew, you'd understand why so much of Beijing is verging on panic-mode. The huge response has come up empty which is a clear signal for how much trouble there really is. For his part, Xi Jinping purged another official unsurprisingly related to financial markets (stocks).  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Xi’s Markets Shakeup Surprised Insiders, Showing Alarm Over Routhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/xi-s-markets-shakeup-surprised-insiders-showing-alarm-over-routChina's Securities Regulatorhttp://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc_en/c102030/common_list.shtml?channelid=84bedf81e76a4c20b9f43a7c7190519bTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityWhat's behind the renewed banking woes? Sure, we know it almost certainly has to do with commercial real estate, but we need to get a sense of how much trouble that might lead to. Digging into what information we have available, let's put some hard numbers on the CRE bubble while we go over the latest developments among the US regionals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFinancial Accounts of the United States (Z1)https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Greenstreet Commercial Property Price Indexhttps://www.greenstreet.com/insights/CPPIBrookline Bancorp Q4 2023 resultshttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/01/24/2816078/0/en/Brookline-Bancorp-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results.htmlBankUnited Inc Q4 2023 resultshttps://ir.bankunited.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bankunited-inc-reports-2023-resultsTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To sign up for our free February 19 webinar, follow the links at our homepage here:https://www.eurodollar.universityAccording to these historically validated datapoints, the worst is straight ahead for the US in 2024. In just two charts, we can place together three critical pieces of macroeconomic information which provides a useful guide for determining cyclical circumstances in the US economy. Bank lending, commercial borrowing and, most important, commercial employing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFederal Reserve SLOOShttps://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos.htmTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After an "unexpected" late 2023 plunge, oil prices rebounded and the WTI curve even managed to flip from contango to backwardation. Rather than point to a firming global situation, the latest move in the crude market instead proves it was just Red Sea shipping fears. A shocking collapse in German trade reminds us of what oil's fundamentals really are.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIEA Monthly Oil Report December 2023https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-december-2023IEA Monthly Oil Report January 2024https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-january-2024ECB Combined Policy Decision and Statement January 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240125~d65b43331a.en.pdf?18350e063857b7aa27302e03a8f721d5https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarIt's not just the payroll data that is conflicted with itself, there are a number of other mainstream sources where the economic situation depicted by them could not be more different. Stepping back and looking at it all, we end up finding more lining up one way than the other. As Jay Powell prepares to take a victory lap, if he hasn't already he may want to temper his enthusiasm.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarThis is getting ridiculous. We've become used to seeing Est. Survey vs. HH Survey in US labor data, but now it's Est. Survey vs. Est. Survey. The headline payroll number shows one thing, then the rest of the same data says the exact opposite. What in the hell is going on in the jobs report?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you're looking for a guide on collateral and how to spot shortfalls in it, get your copy of EDU's report on collateral shortages here:https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralThis isn't about a relatively small New York community bank no one had heard of until yesterday. The markets reactions to it were far more important than the details of that bank's announcement. There is not a whole lot of faith in banking, and it may be the ball is rolling once again on that front. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNYCB Acquires Signature Assetshttps://ir.mynycb.com/news-and-events/news-releases/press-release-details/2023/NEW-YORK-COMMUNITY-BANCORP-INC.-THROUGH-ITS-BANK-SUBSIDIARY-FLAGSTAR-BANK-N.A.-ACQUIRES-CERTAIN-ASSETS-AND-ASSUMES-CERTAIN-LIABILITIES-OF-SIGNATURE-BRIDGE-BANK-FROM-THE-FDIC/default.aspxNYCB reports results for 2023https://ir.mynycb.com/news-and-events/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/NEW-YORK-COMMUNITY-BANCORP-INC.-REPORTS-RECORD-RESULTS-FOR-2023/default.aspxBloomberg Markets NY Community Bancorp Plunges as Real Estate Risks Jolt Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/new-york-community-bancorp-slumps-on-surprise-loss-dividend-cut?fromMostRead=trueFOMC Statement January 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240131a1.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarSuggest topics or someone to join Jeff on Presidents Day in the comments.Wild day in bonds has the market doing something highly unusual. There "shouldn't" be a rally in LT rates so soon after the last big one. Global markets are strong anyway which could be a warning about a couple things, from the monetary to the economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU