Eurodollar University

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4The FOMC's minutes for its January meeting shed light on the dilemma currently hitting policymakers. They're seeming embrace of the lower rates from last bond rally was no fluke. They instead share our growing and NOTABLE concerns over possible substantial fallout from CRE. However, they also can't help themselves whenever Phillips drops by. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Minutes January 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240131.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another rash of layoffs is sweeping the US economy and its labor market. Only this time, unlike last year, the background behind them is far more concerning and even dangerous (economically, speaking). Those threatened by being thrown out of work know the score isn't entirely made up from those job cuts. It's actually the grim reality of no hiring. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Worries grow over a K-shaped economic recovery that favors the wealthyhttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/04/worries-grow-over-a-k-shaped-economic-recovery-that-favors-the-wealthy.htmlBloomberg How Companies Say ‘Layoffs’ Without Saying ‘Layoffs’https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/corporate-layoffs-all-the-ways-companies-say-someone-is-unemployedCNBC As companies lay off even more workers, they could be making a big mistake in the way they’re doing ithttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/20/as-companies-lay-off-even-more-workers-they-could-be-making-a-mistake.htmlChallenger, Gray & Christmashttps://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-announced-by-us-based-companies-surge-136-to-82307-to-begin-2024-financial-tech-lead/Bloomberg Job Cuts Are Sending a Chill Through the Remote Work Worldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/layoffs-make-remote-workers-reconsider-work-from-home-jobs?srnd=economics-v2Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference November 1, 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20231101.pdfCanadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2023https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-third-quarter-of-2023/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/23/1ym21crukhgh4Chinese "banks" opted for an unusually large cut to China's benchmark 5-year Loan Prime Rate. In truth, that appears at the behest of Beijing where authorities are becoming increasingly desperate. Nothing they are doing is working - and Chinese banks know it. China has a growing bank problem on its hands before any of its other major problems.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg China’s Bold Mortgage Rate Cut Met With Lukewarm Reactionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/chinese-banks-cut-mortgage-reference-rate-by-most-on-recordCNBC China boosts property funding with first cut in key loan rate since Junehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/china-cuts-benchmark-5-year-lending-rate-for-the-first-time-since-june.htmlMonetary policy shocks and the signaling channel of monetary policy in Chinahttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666933123000047?ref=pdf_download&fr=RR-2&rr=85898a601dfcdb01Bloomberg China’s Property Crisis Is Starting to Ripple Across the Worldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-09/china-s-real-estate-crisis-is-starting-to-ripple-across-the-worldhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you happened to miss today's Webinar on CRE and the possible dangers from it, you can still watch the replay. Follow the link below.https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarAs more countries around the world "unexpectedly" succumb to recession, the consequences aren't strictly economic. While globally synchronized means many more will follow, the costs need to be accounted for in human terms. Why does it feel like half the planet is on the move? It's the economy, stupid. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSkynews 8,000 migrants travel to southern border as election loomshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKgRbVGO2XUAutumn 2022 Economic Forecast: The EU economy at a turning pointhttps://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts/autumn-2022-economic-forecast-eu-economy-turning-point_enEC Autumn 2023 Economic Forecast: A modest recovery ahead after a challenging yearhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_5743Winter 2024 Economic Forecast: A delayed rebound in growth amid faster easing of inflationhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_730Fitch Ratingshttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/world-growth-to-fall-sharply-in-2024-us-recession-avoided-08-12-2023Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report Oct 2023https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20231020.pdfWorld Bank Global Economic Prospects June 2023 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e892b75-2594-4901-a036-46d0dec1e753/contentTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university

There are just a few more spaces left to sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityIt's a recession rash. Economic growth expectations slashed, "unexpectedly", of course. Technical recessions spreading around the world's major economies because real ones are. Yet, still the idea of a US decoupling persists resting largely on a few past-tense stats and, most of all, equity investors. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityThere are a lot of parallels now and the 1970s - and inflation isn't actually one of them. The whole world saw recession coming in 1979, even that vast majority of those on the FOMC. Except, there was no recession in '79. It's what leads up to contraction that matters, not when it finally gets noticed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityThis is getting out of hand. Not only is it a major risk and not just to those "invested" in equities, there are several deeply troubling reasons to care why several major economy stock indexes are setting new highs while the economies allegedly tied to them suffer substantial now-recognized recessions. This isn't going to end well. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisInvesting.com Japan’s Nikkei 225 near record high as Q4 recession dents BOJ pivot betshttps://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/japans-nikkei-225-near-record-high-as-q4-recession-dents-boj-pivot-bets-3304175Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The podcast explores the disconnect between stock prices and economic realities, focusing on Germany's DAX index hitting record highs despite a downturn. It discusses the puzzling situation of Germany's stock market and the economy struggling, questioning how stock prices can remain high while industries struggle and GDP growth remains negative. The belief in liquidity and stock market performance is analyzed, exploring the current state of the stock market and its contradictory growth in relation to weak economic fundamentals.

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityNo one remembers the "red hot" and "sticky" supply shock of 2010 and 2011 BECAUSE it was, yes, transitory. The Fed didn't need to raise rates or do anything. In fact, the FOMC was busy with more "accommodating" policies like Operation Twist and then two more QEs, yet consumer prices disinflate-d anyway. Outside of one artificial piece of the CPI, the January 2024 version was in every other way just like back then.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNNMoney Consumer prices up 2.1% in past yearhttps://money.cnn.com/2011/03/17/news/economy/cpi_inflation/index.htmBoston Fed Eric Rosengren A Look Inside a Key Economic Debate: How Should Monetary Policy Respond to Price Increases Driven by Supply Shocks?https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/speeches/a-look-inside-a-key-economic-debate-how-should-monetary-policy-respond-to-price-increases-driven-by-supply-shocks.aspxFOMC Transcript September 2011https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20110921meeting.pdfDecember 2011 Tealbookhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20111213tealbooka20111207.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sign up for our free February 19th Presidents' Day Webinar. Visit our webpage for the details:https://www.eurodollar.universityChina's yuan has been constantly put forward as a contender to 'dethrone' the dollar. Whatever sliver of a tiny chance it may have had before, it's zero now. The greater challenge is how to replace the existing reserve regime which does need an update. But that means eurodollar NOT dollar. This is not a trivial distinction; it is, in fact, everything. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRBNY Monthly Review November 1960https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/publications/frbnyreview/rev_frbny_196011.pdf?utm_source=direct_downloadBIS Quarterly Review June 2012https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1206f.pdfBloomberg A 99% Bond Wipeout Hands Hedge Funds a Harsh Lesson on Chinahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/a-99-bond-wipeout-hands-hedge-funds-a-harsh-lesson-on-chinaTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU