Eurodollar University

The podcast explores the difficulties faced by oil producers, weakening demand for oil, and OPEC's efforts to stabilize prices. It analyzes crude oil inventories and their impact on the global economy. The discussion highlights the rebound of the US economy, deflationary pressures, and concerns over narrowing interest rate spreads. It also addresses the turmoil in the OPEC cartel caused by weakening oil demand.

The podcast discusses the recent developments in the bond market, analyzing the impact of macroeconomic situations on bond markets and the movement of treasury bill yields. It also explores the correlation of Japanese government bonds with other bond markets, highlighting the ownership of JGBs by the Bank of Japan and insurance companies.

This podcast delves into the facade created by central banks in controlling interest rates and credit. It discusses the historical perspective on monetary changes and the shift towards central bank interest rate policies. It explores how central banks control the stock of reserves and the impact on interest rates. The role of interest rates in the economy and central banks' influence on the behavior of the real economy are also discussed. The podcast explores the complexity of central bank policies and their reliance on financial markets, highlighting the transmission problems and effectiveness of their influence.

This podcast discusses the resurgence of deflation and its implications for the economy. It explores the effects on major retailers like Walmart, the practice of channel stuffing, rising unemployment claims, and the global slowdown. The speaker highlights signs of caution among consumers and the shift towards a deflationary environment.

The podcast explores the factors that influence interest rates and how the government's attempts at economic stimulus have failed. It discusses the importance of treasury bonds for safety and liquidity and explores disconnects between the federal government's deficit and bond rates. The correlation between interest rate theory and market behavior in depressionary periods is also examined.

Walmart's warning about a deflationary recession and the impact on consumer behavior. Crashing oil and gas prices and their implications on the energy sector. Analysis of the shift from backwardation to Contango in the oil market. Economic concerns: rising jobless claims and the potential for a deflationary recession.

Exploring the connection between consumer weakness and bond market nervousness, caution in consumer spending and its impact on retail inventories, the consequences of reduced consumer spending on inventory levels, the disinflation cycle and weakness in producer prices, and the weak retail spending in China and Europe.

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #cpi Massive buying in global bonds sparked by the US CPI. The consumer price estimates weren't shocking or even much of a surprise, instead they confirmed a lot about economic risks as well as what has been happening in bonds of late. The selloff isn't just over; it was never what everyone said it was. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: The Rapid Bond Rally Is Looking Fragilehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/rapid-bond-rally-is-looking-fragile-as-fed-supply-expose-cracksTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates They were all lovey-dovish last month in pausing rate hikes, then last week suddenly they're all hawks again. What changed? It wasn't the economy nor the economic data derived from it. The Fed's entire worldview is exposed when markets diverge from policymakers' preferred path. From rate hikes to the Phillips Curve, there is no basis for what central bankers do...accept to manipulate public opinion.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChair Jerome H. Powell At "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy," a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, hosted by the International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231109a.htmNBER: IT’S BAAACK: THE SURGE IN INFLATION IN THE 2020S AND THE RETURNOF THE NON-LINEAR PHILLIPS CURVEhttps://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31197/w31197.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#stocks #interestrates #dollar #money #stockcrash The full video with Mike Green is available to Eurodollar University members and DDA subscribers. To see what memberships and research subscriptions offer, go here: https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptionsEurodollar University's guess conversations featuring Mike GreenTwitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7