Eurodollar University

Hiring has near completely dried up in the US labor market, contrary to all mainstream talk of a booming economy. JOLTS hires was the lowest since March and April 2020, and apart from those the worst in six and a half years. That substantial weakness was further corroborated by some of the biggest companies in the world reporting sharply lower results on increasing consumer difficulties. Yet, everyone will be focused entirely on the Fed and its absurd "inflation" fixation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Playback May 1, 2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0unztmcLvAUSA Todayhttps://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/07/job-market-cooling-despite-high-employment-numbers/72846912007/Behind the rosy job numbers, Americans are struggling to find workBloomberg Starbucks Posts First Sales Drop Since 2020 During Global Pullbackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/starbucks-sbux-sales-slump-as-customers-pull-back-across-the-world?srnd=allBloomberg  KFC Owner’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/kfc-owner-s-sales-fall-for-first-time-since-2020-as-weakness-spreadsISM Manufacturing Press Releasehttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/april/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence for demand destruction in the US economy is really piling up. Consumer sentiment tumbled, services businesses in parts of the country are shedding workers in a way and to a degree we only see during recession, and major Midwest manufacturing plunged. All that was just today. The common theme through each one is a change in employment conditions and not the good one. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysisthe Conference Board Consumer Confidencehttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidenceTexas Service Sector Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2024/2404#tab-commentshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The first bank failure of 2024 is a familiar tale. A relatively small institution in Philadelphia, by itself it doesn't really mean all that much. However, there are a couple of important developments to go along with the background which raise questions and a few concerns. Is this the second chapter for the bank crisis?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFDIC Press Releasehttps://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/fulton-bank-na-lancaster-pennsylvania-assumes-substantially-all-depositsRepublic First's last SEC filinghttps://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000834285/6c29a651-35e8-48f3-8803-6b7376b1ab7f.pdfRepublic First's last posted balance sheethttps://investors.myrepublicbank.com/financial-info/balance-sheet/default.aspxBloomberg's April 2024 report on FDIC soliciting bidsFDIC Is Approaching Potential Buyers of Republic Firsthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/fdic-is-said-to-approach-potential-buyers-of-republic-firstBloomberg's October 2023 report on FDIC soliciting bidsFDIC Sought Buyers for Republic First Before Investor Dealhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-29/fdic-sought-buyers-for-republic-first-before-investor-dealhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This week's big miss in US GDP raises several questions about the state of the economy. It was significant enough to immediately call into doubt the soft landing. Last year's surge now appears to have been just a short run temporary jump, meaning GDP might be joining the majority of macro data indicating much sharper and more serious weakness than was though just before the data's release. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreS&P Global April 2024 flash PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's not just that Japan's yen is crashing, it's what a yen crash means to everyone not only in Japan. But why? All you'll hear from the mainstream and most "experts" is that every currency exchange rate movement including JPY must be somehow related to a central bank, especially the Fed. It's a myth easily debunked. When doing the debunking the real truth emerges and it's not good. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Yen Drops Beyond 158 Per Dollar as BOJ Keeps Key Rate Unchangedhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-26/yen-drops-to-fresh-34-year-low-as-boj-keeps-key-rate-unchangedTrilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statementhttps://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2264FOMC Transcript February 1998https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

GDP comes in the worst in two years because prices shot up again, therefore the term "stagflation" is going to be everywhere. Which prices changed actually makes a huge difference given the fact those particular prices are more likely to help the US economy get back to its depression tendencies. And on that count, we have irrefutable proof from oil, gasoline, and energy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Uncle Sam tried his best to buy a recovery. The sheer amount of money redistributed by the federal govt the past four years is incomprehensible. Here's the thing: the transfers didn't stop in 2021. A huge chunk of them kept going right on to today. And still it wasn't enough to stabilize an economy that is showing signs of even more weakening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Oil prices aren't inflationary, they're disinflationary. We are getting more proof right now as incoming data shows demand being destroyed. This is creating difficulties for the US economy on top of severe strain around the rest of the world. Several key markets are picking up the distress, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisS&P Global Flash US Composite PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdfBloomberg China Is Front and Center of Gold’s Record-Breaking Rallyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-21/china-is-front-and-center-of-gold-s-record-breaking-rallyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed's latest semi-annual report on financial risks contains a couple of important updates. First, we get a sense of where the systemic attempt to deal with the downside to the commercial real estate bubble stands. That also feeds into the most recent updates on US banks and the deteriorating credit environment. Plus, we also take a look at why the Fed's report singled-out the stock market and what that means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFederal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There is a tendency to conflate the behavior of consumer prices with the condition of the economy. With the current mania over recent CPIs in full bloom, fears extend into the real economy. Is it really "too hot?" Recent data from the Federal Reserve itself actually helps separate the facts from the misperceptions. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van MetreBeige Book April 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university