Eurodollar University

When the person who is supposed to help you find a job finds out they no longer have one themselves, that's a warning sign about the economy. Those have been proliferating lately and mostly focused on employment. This fits nicely (in a bad way) into other late cycle signals coming across including a sharp rise in consumer credit delinquencies. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIndeed Message from CEOhttps://www.indeed.com/press/releases/a-message-from-our-ceo-chris-hyams-2FRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.htmlLiberty Street Economics Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowershttps://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/delinquency-is-increasingly-in-the-cards-for-maxed-out-borrowers/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's total credit in April actually fell for only the third time and by the most ever. Clearly the government is alarmed by that as well as the distinct lack of traction in the real economy (more deflation in producer prices, minimal gains in consumer prices). We'll go over what was just reported, what the government's next government plan is likely to be, and what the market(s) reaction(s) has(have) been. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNYT Biden Looks to Thwart Surge of Chinese Importshttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/politics/biden-china-imports.htmlWSJ China Hints at New Growth Push as it Warns of Rising Uncertaintieshttps://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-calls-long-delayed-policy-meeting-warning-of-rising-uncertainties-032fb571https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There is a resurgence underway not from consumer prices as everyone thinks, instead the use of the term "stagflation." This is really nothing more than the shift in narrative attempting to incorporate more visible economic weakness while still keeping it the idea "inflation." But as the former takes the forefront, the latter will continue to fade until what's left isn't even stagnation. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another critical economic measures shows big negative changes and they aren't "inflation" problems. It's not just that American consumers are cracking, the consistent theme which keeps coming up over and over is jobs. The US labor market has been stuck in half a recession already, is this now the other half?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisUofM Surveys of Consumershttp://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/CNBC Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey showshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/consumer-sentiment-tumbles-as-inflation-fears-surge-closely-watched-survey-shows.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The one news article in the media said it all; more companies are now cutting their prices despite inflation. Except, no, it isn't in spite of other price changes, instead in response to them. The economy isn't inflationary, it is weak and getting weaker. Eye opening new data is alarmingly consistent with the price cuts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN Retailers jacked up prices and squeezed consumers. They might have just blinkedhttps://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/business/retailers-cutting-prices/index.htmlMichaels Lowers Prices on Thousands of Arts, Crafts and DIY Itemshttps://www.michaelspressroom.com/news/detail/2293/michaels-lowers-prices-on-thousands-of-arts-crafts-and-diyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Japan's government conducted three (unconfirmed) major currency interventions in less than a week. Already JPY is falling almost like they never happened. It's the dollar that's the matter because what's the matter isn't just Japan and like a lot of things energy is the key. As the Japanese understand all too well, energy means dollars. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg BOJ’s Ueda Ramps Up Yen Warnings While Traders Keep Sellinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/boj-s-ueda-tweaks-weak-yen-remarks-in-possible-hint-of-rate-hikehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

FreightWaves Texas’ Arnold Transportation acquired by Canada’s Pride Group Logisticshttps://www.freightwaves.com/news/texas-arnold-transportation-acquired-by-canadas-pride-group-logisticsGlobal NewsWire Pride Group Logistics Expands U.S. Presence With the Acquisition of Arnold Transportation Services, Inc.https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/02/01/2377007/0/en/Pride-Group-Logistics-Expands-U-S-Presence-With-the-Acquisition-of-Arnold-Transportation-Services-Inc.htmlFreightWaves 92-year-old Texas trucking company files for bankruptcy liquidationhttps://www.freightwaves.com/news/92-year-old-texas-trucking-company-files-for-bankruptcy-liquidationInvestopedia  Etsy Stock Dives as Retailer Warns of 'Challenging Environment' for Consumer Spendinghttps://www.investopedia.com/etsy-q1-2024-earnings-weak-consumer-spending-8642325ISM Services April 2024https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/april/Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The first disappointment from payrolls in what seems like forever is only the start. It follows a number of increasingly ugly developments including a solid shocker from the US services sector - and its own measure of employment. In addition to reviewing the latest updates, Jeff and Steve also take apart the "dovish" QT myth that has popped up.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What would the price of oil be without Saudi Arabia's actions? What would Treasury yields be without the Fed? There is a way for us to determine what the underlying fundamental monetary and financial conditions really are which offers a rough approximation for both. Crude would be a lot less and market interest rates, let's just say there's no inflation whatsoever in these fundamentals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We need to confront the fact there remains a serious problem in the US with Marxism. To successfully counter the threat REQUIRES first we understand why that is and what keeps it going. It's not enough to "clap back" with platitudes correctly pointing to Communism's barbaric history. Nor is the modern world's prosperity a sufficient counterargument. The true Socialist admits that's what capitalism was supposed to have accomplished. The entire matter revolves around whether that last statement truly is in the past tense. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysisthe Atlantic Why the Phrase 'Late Capitalism' Is Suddenly Everywherehttps://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/late-capitalism/524943/QUB Law Society Demystifying late stage capitalism on both a global and national level: the ball and chain of a 21st century free market economy https://www.theverdictonline.org/post/demystifying-late-stage-capitalism-on-both-a-global-and-national-level-the-ball-and-chain-of-a-21stAP Archive CAN973 FILE / ARCHIVE FOOTAGE OF VLADIMIR LENINhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IJbNwt9J00RCM July 10, 2020 Socialism Would Have Been Easy to Discredit, Had There Been Growthhttps://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/07/10/socialism_would_have_been_easy_to_discredit_had_there_been_growth_498699.htmlThe Atlantic 26 Years of Growth: Shanghai Then and Nowhttps://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2013/08/26-years-of-growth-shanghai-then-and-now/100569/NYT Nov 14, 1939https://www.nytimes.com/1939/11/14/archives/browder-assails-pope-at-rally-here-he-tells-22000-at-the-garden.htmlTime Magazine May 30, 1938https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19380530,00.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU