Eurodollar University

The first disappointment from payrolls in what seems like forever is only the start. It follows a number of increasingly ugly developments including a solid shocker from the US services sector - and its own measure of employment. In addition to reviewing the latest updates, Jeff and Steve also take apart the "dovish" QT myth that has popped up.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What would the price of oil be without Saudi Arabia's actions? What would Treasury yields be without the Fed? There is a way for us to determine what the underlying fundamental monetary and financial conditions really are which offers a rough approximation for both. Crude would be a lot less and market interest rates, let's just say there's no inflation whatsoever in these fundamentals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We need to confront the fact there remains a serious problem in the US with Marxism. To successfully counter the threat REQUIRES first we understand why that is and what keeps it going. It's not enough to "clap back" with platitudes correctly pointing to Communism's barbaric history. Nor is the modern world's prosperity a sufficient counterargument. The true Socialist admits that's what capitalism was supposed to have accomplished. The entire matter revolves around whether that last statement truly is in the past tense. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysisthe Atlantic Why the Phrase 'Late Capitalism' Is Suddenly Everywherehttps://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/late-capitalism/524943/QUB Law Society Demystifying late stage capitalism on both a global and national level: the ball and chain of a 21st century free market economy https://www.theverdictonline.org/post/demystifying-late-stage-capitalism-on-both-a-global-and-national-level-the-ball-and-chain-of-a-21stAP Archive CAN973 FILE / ARCHIVE FOOTAGE OF VLADIMIR LENINhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IJbNwt9J00RCM July 10, 2020 Socialism Would Have Been Easy to Discredit, Had There Been Growthhttps://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/07/10/socialism_would_have_been_easy_to_discredit_had_there_been_growth_498699.htmlThe Atlantic 26 Years of Growth: Shanghai Then and Nowhttps://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2013/08/26-years-of-growth-shanghai-then-and-now/100569/NYT Nov 14, 1939https://www.nytimes.com/1939/11/14/archives/browder-assails-pope-at-rally-here-he-tells-22000-at-the-garden.htmlTime Magazine May 30, 1938https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19380530,00.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Hiring has near completely dried up in the US labor market, contrary to all mainstream talk of a booming economy. JOLTS hires was the lowest since March and April 2020, and apart from those the worst in six and a half years. That substantial weakness was further corroborated by some of the biggest companies in the world reporting sharply lower results on increasing consumer difficulties. Yet, everyone will be focused entirely on the Fed and its absurd "inflation" fixation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Playback May 1, 2024https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0unztmcLvAUSA Todayhttps://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/07/job-market-cooling-despite-high-employment-numbers/72846912007/Behind the rosy job numbers, Americans are struggling to find workBloomberg Starbucks Posts First Sales Drop Since 2020 During Global Pullbackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/starbucks-sbux-sales-slump-as-customers-pull-back-across-the-world?srnd=allBloomberg  KFC Owner’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/kfc-owner-s-sales-fall-for-first-time-since-2020-as-weakness-spreadsISM Manufacturing Press Releasehttps://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/april/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence for demand destruction in the US economy is really piling up. Consumer sentiment tumbled, services businesses in parts of the country are shedding workers in a way and to a degree we only see during recession, and major Midwest manufacturing plunged. All that was just today. The common theme through each one is a change in employment conditions and not the good one. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysisthe Conference Board Consumer Confidencehttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidenceTexas Service Sector Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2024/2404#tab-commentshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The first bank failure of 2024 is a familiar tale. A relatively small institution in Philadelphia, by itself it doesn't really mean all that much. However, there are a couple of important developments to go along with the background which raise questions and a few concerns. Is this the second chapter for the bank crisis?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFDIC Press Releasehttps://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/fulton-bank-na-lancaster-pennsylvania-assumes-substantially-all-depositsRepublic First's last SEC filinghttps://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000834285/6c29a651-35e8-48f3-8803-6b7376b1ab7f.pdfRepublic First's last posted balance sheethttps://investors.myrepublicbank.com/financial-info/balance-sheet/default.aspxBloomberg's April 2024 report on FDIC soliciting bidsFDIC Is Approaching Potential Buyers of Republic Firsthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/fdic-is-said-to-approach-potential-buyers-of-republic-firstBloomberg's October 2023 report on FDIC soliciting bidsFDIC Sought Buyers for Republic First Before Investor Dealhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-29/fdic-sought-buyers-for-republic-first-before-investor-dealhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This week's big miss in US GDP raises several questions about the state of the economy. It was significant enough to immediately call into doubt the soft landing. Last year's surge now appears to have been just a short run temporary jump, meaning GDP might be joining the majority of macro data indicating much sharper and more serious weakness than was though just before the data's release. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreS&P Global April 2024 flash PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's not just that Japan's yen is crashing, it's what a yen crash means to everyone not only in Japan. But why? All you'll hear from the mainstream and most "experts" is that every currency exchange rate movement including JPY must be somehow related to a central bank, especially the Fed. It's a myth easily debunked. When doing the debunking the real truth emerges and it's not good. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Yen Drops Beyond 158 Per Dollar as BOJ Keeps Key Rate Unchangedhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-26/yen-drops-to-fresh-34-year-low-as-boj-keeps-key-rate-unchangedTrilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statementhttps://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2264FOMC Transcript February 1998https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

GDP comes in the worst in two years because prices shot up again, therefore the term "stagflation" is going to be everywhere. Which prices changed actually makes a huge difference given the fact those particular prices are more likely to help the US economy get back to its depression tendencies. And on that count, we have irrefutable proof from oil, gasoline, and energy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Uncle Sam tried his best to buy a recovery. The sheer amount of money redistributed by the federal govt the past four years is incomprehensible. Here's the thing: the transfers didn't stop in 2021. A huge chunk of them kept going right on to today. And still it wasn't enough to stabilize an economy that is showing signs of even more weakening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU