Eurodollar University

With recession fears still growing, the government just reported strange results for a key set of economic data. And it's contradicted by a range of other reports, starting with more retailer warnings like the one from Lululemon about store traffic. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Lululemon Plunges With Outlook Hurt by US Consumer Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/lululemon-s-us-struggles-weigh-on-sales-outlook-for-coming-yearhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are senior researchers and former officials urging the Fed to create a hedge fund bailout? At first, this seems to be about the Treasury market and concerns tied to March 2020. It doesn't take too long, however, to see what's really going on here. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBrookings Treasury market dysfunction and the role of the central bankhttps://www.brookings.edu/articles/treasury-market-dysfunction-and-the-role-of-the-central-bank/Bloomberg Fed Urged to Explore Hedge Fund Bailout Tool for Basis Tradehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/fed-urged-to-mull-a-hedge-fund-bailout-facility-for-basis-tradesOFR Hedge Funds and the Treasury Cash-Futures Disconnect https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp-21-01-hedge-funds-and-the-treasury-cash-futures-disconnect.pdfFOMC Meeting Minutes March 15, 2020https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20200315.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Historic bond buying by European banks kept up again in February. The two-month binge is only surpassed by April and May 2020.  At the same time, no lending to speak of, banks being totally defensive despite rate cuts. The implications are enormous given the background for 2025. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisYou can watch the replay of our last webinar going over the various scenarios for the global economy: https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerECB The euro area bank lending survey - Fourth quarter of 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2024q4~e1ddae0f19.en.htmlECB Past Macroeconomic Projectionshttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/devel/ecana/html/table.en.htmlECB Using corporate earnings calls to forecast euro area labour demandhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2025/html/ecb.ebbox202502_04~3283f1bc62.en.htmlBloomberg ECB’s Escriva Says Downside Risks Are Outweighing Upside Riskshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/ecb-s-escriva-says-downside-risks-are-outweighing-upside-risksBloomberg ECB Rate Cuts Are Neither Finished Nor Automatic, Villeroy Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/ecb-rate-cuts-are-neither-finished-nor-automatic-villeroy-saysBloomberg Stournaras Says Everything Points to April ECB Cut: Econostreamhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/stournaras-says-everything-points-to-april-ecb-cut-econostreamBloomberg Lagarde Says Uncertainty Means ECB Can’t Commit on Rateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/lagarde-says-rising-uncertainty-means-ecb-can-t-commit-on-rateshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerWhy on earth would anyone say we need a serious financial and economic crisis? Simple: it might be the only way to avoid a lot worse. We've had two so far in the last almost twenty years that got us nowhere; worse than nowhere. If nothing else, maybe third time's a charm.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBen Bernanke's pathetic response to some real Congressional questioning in July 2012:https://www.c-span.org/program/house-committee/us-economic-outlook-and-monetary-policy/282124https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer:https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerConsumer confidence collapsed in March, at the same time data on services industries showed much the same. This dramatic loss of momentum is coming up seemingly everywhere, to the point it has Wall Street taking the R-word more seriously than at any time since 2020. Not for nothing, that's what some of these datapoints are looking like. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisConference Board Consmer Confidence March 2025https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencePhilly Fed March 2025 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Surveyhttps://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/nbos-2025-03New York Fed Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview.htmlChicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC)https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfsec/current-dataRichmond Fed Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activityhttps://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sectorCNBC DoubleLine’s Gundlach sees more risk coming along with greater chance of recessionhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/doublelines-gundlach-sees-more-risk-coming-and-greater-chance-of-recession-.html?qsearchterm=gundlachCNBC The probability of a recession is approaching 50%, Deutsche markets survey findshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/the-probability-of-a-recession-is-approaching-50percent-deutsche-markets-survey-finds.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1FedEx warned that the US economy is now the biggest constraint on the world, experiencing what the shipper currently estimates is a very serious round of "uncertainty." However, incoming data - not to mention the dollar - shows how the situation is becoming more - not less - certain, with a whole host of updates today.  "Uncertainty" simply means "we don't like how this looks."Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC FedEx cuts full-year results forecast on ‘uncertainty’ in economy, bad weatherhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/fedex-cuts-full-year-results-forecast-on-uncertainty-in-economy-bad-weather.htmlBloomberg Lightspeed Cuts Revenue Outlook on Weakening Consumer Confidencehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/lightspeed-tsx-lspd-cuts-revenue-guidance-as-consumer-spending-slowsSPG US PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a30301f1804041a083e1a0671ee3df46SPG-HCOB EZ PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b4bd322643a349e99e8d6f8c290051e0Jibun Japan PMIshttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7a339d18dce843d68203c0455cb84caahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Michael Saylor's Strategy sold $700 million in preferred stock Friday, but with an eye-opening 10% dividend attached to be paid in cash. Not stock. Not coins. It was the second straight preferred sale in as many months, though the first one went off at only 8%. Security sales. Trying to get govts and Big Tech to buy Bitcoin. What is going on in the world of BTC? There's a huge STORY here, one that's bigger than Saylor. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisMSTF Pfd Stock Mar 2025https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-announces-pricing-of-strf-perpetual-preferred-stock_03-21-2025MSTR Pfd Stock Jan 2025https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-announces-pricing-of-strike-preferred-stock-offering-strk_01-31-2025MSTR Convertible Notes Nov 2024https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-completes-3-billion-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-due-2029-at-0-coupon-and-55-conversion-premium_11-21-2024Bitcoin is perfect moneyhttps://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1902757116747612169SEC Filings 10-Q Strategy (MSTR)https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000095017025021814/mstr-20241231.htm#item_8_financial_statements_supplementarMichael Saylor A Digital Assets Strategy to Dominate the 21st Century Global Economyhttps://www.michael.com/a-digital-assets-strategyReason El Salvador Walks Back Its Bitcoin Lawhttps://reason.com/2025/02/03/el-salvador-walks-back-its-bitcoin-law/elsalvador.com https://www.elsalvador.com/noticias/negocios/bitcoin-el-salvador-criptomonedas-iudop-/1194324/2025/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/I am also doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare, you can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Canary in the coalmine. Not Mag Seven, Russell. The macroeconomic warnings are coming in from all direction. Small caps. AI bubble. Macro data. Even the Federal Reserve isn't so certain these days. With Nike and FedEx the latest to offer their $0.02, it's a bit more than mere "uncertainty."Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Explore the unsettling adjustments in global monetary policy as central banks face mounting economic challenges. Recent rate cuts reflect deeper issues, not just optimism. Discover how a strong Swiss franc impacts the watch industry and the grim realities of consumer spending. Weak retail sales and rising unemployment paint a worrying picture in countries like Australia and the U.S. Central banks seem caught in a race to the bottom, with their true responses revealing a cautious approach to looming economic crises.

I am doing a webinar on how The Global Economy is Breaking: What Comes Next & How to Prepare. You can sign up here:  https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6The only question is how long the Fed can hold out, not if. With other central banks racing toward the bottom already, the fact those around the FOMC are also speaking with more forceful concerns - even downgrading - their expectations has the Fed effectively trapped, only a step maybe two away from re-entering that same race. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg US Growth Downgrades Appear on Wall Street Amid Policy Turmoilhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-10/us-recession-growth-downgrades-appear-on-wall-street-amid-policy-turmoilAtlanta Fed GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 adjustmentshttps://www.linkedin.com/pulse/gdp-forecasters-some-gold-doesnt-glitter-atlantafed-fxb2e/?trackingId=IKtl2qJkTya%2FgvCxax%2FXEQ%3D%3DBloomberg Fed Needs to Raise Threat of ‘Bad News’ Rate Cuts, El-Erian Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/el-erian-says-fed-needs-to-raise-threat-of-bad-news-rate-cutshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU