OH SH*T... The Global banking System Is Breaking Down
Jan 26, 2025
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Global banks are tightening their belts, prioritizing U.S. Treasuries over lending. This trend highlights shared reluctance among both U.S. and European banks to support economic growth during turbulent times. Meanwhile, dollar scarcity is causing foreign governments to raid their reserves, raising alarms about the stability of the global banking system. The podcast delves into how these banking behaviors reflect deeper risks and challenges in the world economy, questioning the prospects for recovery.
The banking system is exhibiting significant defensiveness, with banks globally opting to buy large quantities of U.S. Treasuries instead of lending to the real economy, despite reassurances about a 'soft landing' for the economy. Both U.S. and European banks are accumulating government bonds, indicating a widespread risk aversion in lending practices. This trend reflects a lack of confidence in economic recovery, demonstrated by the sluggish growth of lending and the prioritization of purchasing safe assets. As banks hoard these bonds, they signal a precautionary approach, likely anticipating further economic turbulence.
Dollar Scarcity and Its Impact on Global Banking
Recent issues surrounding dollar funding have contributed to a sharp increase in the holdings of U.S. Treasury coupons by primary dealers, indicating heightened concern over collateral shortages within the banking system. The demand for dollar liquidity has caused banks to be more risk-averse, leading to more hoarding of government securities as a safeguard against potential market disruptions. The simultaneous rise in the dollar's exchange value and the surge in dealer demand for Treasuries suggests that banks are preparing for financial challenges that may lie ahead, not just from imminent trade wars, but from a broader economic stagnation. These developments illustrate a nuanced understanding among banks regarding the complexities of dollar liquidity and its implications for future lending.
Declining Real Economy Lending Amid Risk Aversion
A significant shift in bank lending practices is evident, with loans to the real economy lagging while lending to non-depository financial institutions has surged, highlighting a preference for perceived safety over supporting growth. Since the banking crisis of 2023, total loan growth has been unimpressive, showing that banks are hesitant to engage with riskier ventures such as commercial real estate. This unwillingness to lend, compounded by a lack of substantive recovery in the economy, reflects deeper issues within the banking sector, including a historical trend of credit aversion post-2008. As financial institutions continue to prioritize government securities over economic expansion, the outlook for real economy growth remains bleak.
While the dollar was screaming higher the past few months, that eurodollar disorder had foreign govts absolutely raiding their reserves, money dealers hoarding record amounts of collateral and record Treasuries being piled up by depositories. And those were just the beginning.