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Eurodollar University

OH SH*T... The Global banking System Is Breaking Down

Jan 26, 2025
Global banks are tightening their belts, prioritizing U.S. Treasuries over lending. This trend highlights shared reluctance among both U.S. and European banks to support economic growth during turbulent times. Meanwhile, dollar scarcity is causing foreign governments to raid their reserves, raising alarms about the stability of the global banking system. The podcast delves into how these banking behaviors reflect deeper risks and challenges in the world economy, questioning the prospects for recovery.
21:34

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Global banks are increasingly risk-averse, prioritizing the accumulation of U.S. Treasuries over lending to the real economy.
  • A significant decline in loan growth reflects a cautious banking sector, highlighting concerns about economic stability and recovery post-2023 crisis.

Deep dives

Cautious Banking Behavior Amid Economic Uncertainty

The banking system is exhibiting significant defensiveness, with banks globally opting to buy large quantities of U.S. Treasuries instead of lending to the real economy, despite reassurances about a 'soft landing' for the economy. Both U.S. and European banks are accumulating government bonds, indicating a widespread risk aversion in lending practices. This trend reflects a lack of confidence in economic recovery, demonstrated by the sluggish growth of lending and the prioritization of purchasing safe assets. As banks hoard these bonds, they signal a precautionary approach, likely anticipating further economic turbulence.

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