Eurodollar University

The bread of this podcast hotdog features Jeff Snider putting into context how far behind the times monetary authorities are, and that all may not be as it seems with the appreciating Chinese currency.  But the middle, the wiener if you will, is about the unit root. But please! Before you throw your device across the room in disgust rather than listen to yet another podcast about monomial equations and non-stationary processes realize that it's all about econometricians assuming economies do not suffer permanent shocks. The assumption that an economy must experience a recession AND a recovery.A 1993 paper by Milton Friedman averred the data showed this is how economies operated, and indeed they did -- in the post-WW2 experience.  Friedman referenced an earlier work of his, from 1964, with data that stretched over a longer period that ALSO showed this.  And indeed, the 1879 to 1961 period does, as long as you exclude the war cycles and 1945 to 1949 because, as Friedman put it "of their special characteristics."  So, if your podcaster understands this correctly, if you exclude permanent shocks and data discontinuity then one is welcome to assume no permanent shocks.Now, your podcaster is admittedly missing something here.  For one, he's missing econometricians' razor-sharp intelligence.  Second, he hasn't won a Nobel in economics - not yet at least.  The cost of this lacuna is that shoelaces give him trouble - all his trainers and loafers have Velcro.  Simultaneous gum chewing and walking results in emergency trips to the dentist.  And hot dogs are eaten with the bun in one hand and dog in the other.  But the benefit of not having a towering intelligence is not falling prey to hubris. In believing intricate mathematics model out permanent shocks.  In believing that it can go back to the way it was.  The year 2008 was a permanent break.  Like 1914.  Like 1929.  Like 1945. ----------WHY----------PART 01: How many years behind are regulators, from the leading edge of money? Consider, seven years AFTER the crisis, Europe introduced legislation (2014) to track securities lending. Not until 2020 did data collection begin. Besides, this, and other, money activity was brought to our attention in 1981!PART 02: The world is complex.  Too complex to model.  Assumptions must be made.  Is the exclusion of permanent shocks to the economy a reasonable one?  Rational?  Plausible?  Yet econometricians --  with their hands on the wheel -- say it is.  That iceberg dead ahead?  Not in the model.PART 03: The Chinese currency is gaining against the dollar. That SHOULD be an 'all-clear' signal that reflation, global trade, and positive momentum are in place. But we DO NOT see corroborating evidence on the People's Bank of China balance sheet. Maybe the move is an engineered feint?----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Central Banks Trying to Create Inflation Is An Old Laugh Line: https://bit.ly/35uS5CrInnovation in the International Financial Markets by G. Dufey and I. Giddy: https://bit.ly/2HDEpNDThe Unit Root of the Missing Monetary Monomial: https://bit.ly/37zvVBVMilton Friedman's 1964 The Monetary Studies of the National Bureau: https://bit.ly/3dQquQ2Milton Friedman's 1993 "The Plucking Model of Business Fluctuations Revisited": https://bit.ly/3dQ1OY3CNY + TIC = October 2020, or 2017?: https://bit.ly/2FTp2Qk----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, an innuendo. Artwork by the unit root, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Siren Screen" by Ooyy at Epidemic Sound.

American economist and New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman entered the economics profession to follow in the footsteps of Hari Seldon, a psychohistorian living on Trantor, approximately 10,000 years into the future.  Seldon, psychohistory and Trantor are all from Isaac Assimov's Foundation series published between 1951 to '53.  Seldon used, "the mathematics of human behaviour to save civilisation," as Krugman put it.  Admittedly, "economics is a pretty poor substitute", muses Krugman, "[b]ut I tried," he says.  Many would say he's done so very successfully having been awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to New Trade Theory and New Economic Geography.Is he the best psychohistorian alive?  Your podcaster does not think so - they hand out those Nobels like candy.  No, the best is Hungarian-American George Friedman, the geopolitical strategist.  As proof this podcaster offers his 2009 book titled: "The Next 100 Years".  Sure, Seldon forecasted the next 1,000 for the galaxy, but still, who on Earth is offering an outlook for the next century?In Friedman's book, Japan plays a very prominent role, second only to the United States.  In macroeconomics and monetary policy Japan plays a central role too.  It is the scout.  Recon as the Americans call it; recee to the Commonwealth.  The Bank of Japan is about seven years ahead of the main central banking force.  And it's waving back at everyone to, 'Stay back! Don't come this way!'  Is the warning lost in translation?  Is it ignored?  Spanish essayist George Santayana famously noted, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."  But your podcaster prefers Friedman's quip that, "Studying history has little practical utility in averting past outcomes.  We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not."----------WHY----------PART 01: Central banks regulate money supply - the Federal Reserve does not. The Fed does not control US dollars. Consider what came of Fed research Marvin Goodfriend's writings in the 1980s and 90s the eurodollar system and its enormous, ocean of offshore dollars? Nothing.PART 02: Real central banks manage money supply. Fake central banks manage inflation expectations. Central bankers cannot define, identify, quantify or convey money supply. Thus, they are reduced to observing a monetary output: inflation expectations.PART 03: The Bank of Japan has implemented radical, unorthodox policies for over two decades. The bank is seven years out in front of everyone. As scout, it has repeatedly warned the main central banking force (i.e. Britain, Europe and North America) not to follow in its path. But it's been ignored.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Bond Yields Are Really Quite Easy to Understand: https://bit.ly/2T3rQNTMarvin Goodfriend's 1981 "Eurodollars" article : https://bit.ly/2HgoRyLJ. Alfred Broaddus Jr.'s 1993 'Good Luck' article: https://bit.ly/2SYebHMRandal K. Quarles' 2020 'All Clear' speech: https://bit.ly/319RuVFInflation (Expectations) Is Anything But Confusing: https://bit.ly/3j6CYE0Decoding Gauges of Inflation Expectations Is Fed’s Next Big Task: https://bloom.bg/2T3qmDmYou Need To Understand What’s Really Behind This New ‘V’, And Once Again Japan Is More Than Helpful: https://bit.ly/358weAzRaising the Inflation Target: Lessons from Japan: https://bit.ly/31f85YiWhy Did the BOJ Not Achieve the 2 Percent Inflation Target with a Time Horizon of About Two Years?: https://bit.ly/359eS6T----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, falling out of balance, splitting his differential and tipping the f— over. Artwork by David Parkins, the Edmund Blackadder of the lampoon trenches. Podcast intro/outro is "Tiger's Nest" by Ooyy and Smartface at Epidemic Sound.

As your podcaster put the finishing touches on Episode 30 word came down from up-on-high: 'We need to do errata!'Yes!  Finally!  This podcaster's long-time goal would be a reality: to make economics erotic again.  To tell the world that economists can stimulate.  To inform that offshore bankers do it in the shadows.  To broadcast that technical analysis has the best curves with those plunging chart necklines. The undulating data and heaving economic activity.  Going long Treasuries.  Wanting yield.  Oh yeah, pile that yield on... yeah, high and deep... yeah, yeah...Alas, when the new intro copy was handed in for proofreading this podcaster's confusion was laid... bare.  Errata?  It's all about copy-editing.  And mistakes.  The ancient Latin word is plural for erratum, "a correction of a published text."  And indeed, in part three of this episode, the article under discussion was originally printed as, "Inflation Targeting: You Can Me Al".  Wha?  It should have been "Inflation Targeting: You Can Call Me Al".And that's not all. Closely related to errata is corrigenda, a plural Latin word, "for a thing to be corrected, typically an error in a printed book."  Whereas an erratum is, as a general rule, issued for a production error, a corrigendum is a mistake by the author. And, in part three, Jeff Snider and I introduce Al Broaddus, the former Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president.  And when we segue to a quote about inflation targeting by Fed Governor Edward M. Gramlich, instead of attributing it to Gramlich, we continue to refer to Broaddus!  We hope you forgive the erratum and the corrigendum and how we piled them high and deep in this episode... ooh, yeah.----------WHY----------PART 01: $1,200 direct cash payments is not stimulus, it is "relief aid"; these are "alms" given to the poor, needy and those harmed by both the virus and the government-mandated shutdowns of the economy. We review the state of the American labor market, European furlough programs, and conclude very difficult days are still ahead.PART 02: The SECOND round of stimulus checks is like the second round of quantitative easing. Instead of celebrating it as signaling something positive it should serve as a warning: if the first version was so good why do we need another round? Maybe the people in charge don't know what they're doing and are out of ideas? PART 03: The Federal Reserve has been fighting the last war: 1970s inflation. ----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------What’s Job (cuts) Got To Do With It (everything): https://bit.ly/2SEKCuzWho’s Negative? The Marginal American Worker: https://bit.ly/2GGYuSSCOT Blue: OMG the 30s!!!!: https://bit.ly/2GKN0h0Inflation Targeting: You Can [Call] Me Al: https://bit.ly/2GKKqYpSpeech by Governor Edward M. Gramlich: https://bit.ly/3jT34M8----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, prodigious producer of errata and corrigenda. Artwork by David Parkins, the Dorothea Lange of the Silent Depression. Podcast intro/outro is "A Most Violent Man" by Lofive at Epidemic Sound.

Advanced-economy money centers make the world go round.  In the early 1800s London and Paris funded globalization cycles.  Berlin and Vienna joined the exclusive club as the century waned; New York at the start of the next.  Today, East Asia's cities are members, including Singapore and Hong Kong.  But the 800-pound sumo wrestler of the Pacific basin is, and has been, Tokyo.  Some speculate it was there at the beginning of the eurodollar, putting overseas dollars, held by WW2 service members, to work. The subsequent, multi-decade growth miracle established Tokyo's financial prowess.  The 1980s brought disturbance early - the LDC Crisis - and euphoria later - the baburu keiki. When the bubble burst Japan's dollar borrowings from US banks dropped by more than three-quarters by the end of the 1990s.Then, in 1999, the Bank of Japan implemented the first modern zero interest rate policy.  In 2001, the first quantitative easing.  From it's 1999 low Japan's dollar borrowings from US banks doubled by 2004.  Then doubled again by 2009.  Then doubled again by 2011.  In part three of this, the 29th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider explains Tokyo's role in the rise of a synthetic dollar empire and how disturbances within it, in early-2014 and late-2017, set off the third and fourth eurodollar crises.  But first, thoughts about the rising appeal of socialism and words about the modern-day monetary tension between the ideas of 18th-century Scottish philosopher David Hume and 19th-century American financier Jay Cooke.----------WHY----------PART 01: Dick Costollo said, "Me-first capitalists who think you can separate society from business are going to be the first people lined up against the wall and shot in the revolution. I'll happily provide video commentary." Jeff Snider explains the historical context of Marxist agitation against Capitalism.PART 02: Over the ages legendary philosophers have offered their thoughts on the nature money. This episode focuses on two - David Hume and Jay Locke - whose ideas, though diametrically opposed, are both true. Also, Antonio Gramsci, Milton Friedman, Nicholas Copernicus and Ice Cube weigh in.PART 03: The Wall Street Journal recently wrote, "The Japanese government bond market is rarely considered interesting. But beneath the placid surface... a thriving world of dollar funding, which offers hints about developments in China’s banking system too." Jeff Snider tells us what it means.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------There Have Long Been Too Many 'Have Nots' In the U.S.: https://bit.ly/3l4GX5FThe context behind Dick Costollo's Tweet: https://on.ft.com/3lddCpLWho was Antonio Gramsci: https://bit.ly/36vWcArBefore Hume, Before Carnegie: https://bit.ly/3iqcg99Ice Cube Tweet: https://bit.ly/2Gd9JCtSmall But Real Progress Carrying The Yen Carry Trade Into the Light: https://bit.ly/3nc0J0JHow the World’s Dullest Market Quietly Created a Synthetic Dollar Empire: https://on.wsj.com/3l9FV8p----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, owner of many red (hardcover) books. Artwork by stylograph sammurai, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "STHLM-Tokyo" by Ooyy and Smartface at Epidemic Sound.

In 1969 Johnny Carson was hosting The Tonight Show and, in one particular episode, Bob Hope headlined.  After Carson finished interviewing Hope he called out his next guest, George Gobel.  To everyone's surprise the person that walked out on stage was most certainly not Gobel.  It was none other than the Italian Crooner himself, Dean Martin.  Now, as was Martin's style in those days, he was already two cognacs into the next day's hangover, which made for a rocking good show.  Eventually Gobel did make it out on to the set.  When he finally did, he complained to Carson, 'Having to come on last!  Having to share the stage with legends!'He turned to the cameras and asked, "Do you ever get the feeling... do you ever get the feeling that the whole world was a tuxedo, and you were a pair of brown shoes?"  In this, the 28th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider and Brent Johnson talk fin de siècle political-economy while Emil Kalinowski holds up a pair of egregious brown brogues.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------OK, Bank Reserves; Let’s Do This One More Time: https://bit.ly/3hXhJ7mTaking You, The Fed’s Bank Reserves, And Banks’ Checkable Deposits For A Quick Stroll In The Monetary Zoo: https://bit.ly/3i4du9PA Good Time For Some Q & A: Bank Reserves, Treasury Auctions, MMT, and the Monetary Resolve: https://bit.ly/3mLPrjEAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments as Bob Hope.  Brent Johnson, Chief Executive Officer of Santiago Capital as Dean Martin.  And Emil Kalinowski, as George Gobel.  Artwork by the Johnny Carson of caricature, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "We Just Gotta (Get Together)" by Wanda Shakes at Epidemic Sound.

US President Harry Truman prosecuted the war to its conclusion, finishing his predecessor's near-impossible task. Then, with bitter irony, History reversed his role as "anchor" for the Second World War into "lead" for the third. As the trilogy approached its near-miraculous end decades later, one could hear an echo of a Truman slogan - “Education is our first line of defense” - in the 1980s cartoon GI*Joe that averred, “Knowing is half the battle.”  Both aphorisms are twigs coming off the "Knowledge is Power" branch. And the trunk itself? A tree of the knowledge of good and evil with roots stretching to the genesis.More recently our physicists have been informing us of hard limits to our knowledge - uncertainty principles, incompleteness theorems - butressing Socrates' statement that, "The only true wisdom consists in knowing that you know nothing." Still, bounded knowledge is a poor excuse for apathy, and in 1951 Truman signed into existence an agency whose purpose was to prepare American citizens for nuclear war. "Knowledge is not only key to power. It is the citadel of human freedom," he said.In this 27th episode of Making Sense, Jeff Snider reveals that Truman's agency's most iconic result was that of a cartoon turtle named Bert. It may sound startlingly silly to the 21st-century ear, but educating citizens to turtle up, to duck and cover at the first instance of a flash made sense at that particular time. At least, up to the point when weapons, and thus circumstances, evolved. Similarly, the Federal Reserve's monetary policies made sense, up to the point when money, and thus circumstances evolved, which, coincidentally enough, began in Truman's time.----------WHY----------PART ONE: What can 1950s preparations for nuclear war tell us about monetary policy in 2020?  Well, that some preparations - such as "Duck and Cover" - made sense, up to the point when circumstances evolved. Similarly, the Fed's bank reserves made sense, up to a point.... long since passed.PART TWO: Beijing has reported dead quiet in its foreign exchange reserves. In the middle of THE most abrupt and widespread economic halt? It literally does not add up - unless bold assumptions are made. We look to what happened in Brasilia in 2013-16 and Beijing 2014-16 for answers.PART THREE: What do the latest figures tell us about the world's most important consumer? Jeff Snider reviews retail sales, industrial production and asks what is it that is missing from our post 2007-08 economy that precludes robust recovery.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------If Jerome Powell Has a Middle Name, It Might Well Be Bert: https://bit.ly/3c9UA0dDuck And Cover (1951) Bert The Turtle: https://youtu.be/IKqXu-5jw60The Contingent Hole In China’s Brazil Dollar Strategy: https://bit.ly/35PJGveThe Mysterious $100 Billion Gap In China's Payments Data: https://bit.ly/2FIAVZoAnother Key Economic Stumble In August Pointing Back At July: https://bit.ly/3cgPVJLNo Hole Puzzle, From Autos An August Stumble: https://bit.ly/3mCWknl----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, who turtle waxes. Artwork lined with graphite by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Steps" by Cushy at Epidemic Sound.

How much is several?  What is a few?  If you were to put a numerical value on "probably" would it be more, or less, than "likely"?  To your podcaster's great consternation the linguistic gatekeepers of Middle English appear to have been rather disinterested about it all. And so, people are constantly late... or early!  'I thought we were to meet in a few hours?'  'No! It was several.'  'Oh, right.'  Women seem to revel in these nuances, arriving for a date with this podcaster when it pleases them and then claiming etymological immunity.Which brings us to the word transitory. Admittedly there is SOME lexicographic nuance: momentary, transient, impermanent, temporal.  However, the Federal Reserve - like the proverbial camel - stuck its thesaurus-nose into that nuance and CHARGED into the economic-tent of the past decade.  Why did the 2009-10 Green Shoots recovery fail?  Transitory European Sovereign Debt Crisis, gummed Bernanke.  Why did the economy swoon in the first quarter of 2014?  Transitory Polar Vortex, chomped Yellen.  Why did inflation not accelerate despite 'full-employment'?  Transitory cellular data-plan price war, gnawed the FOMC.  Why was Globally Synchronized Growth tripped up?  Transitory political trade wars, chawed Powell.So here we are, 10 transitory-filled years later.  Now, unless there are glaciers listening to this podcast - and it needs all the ratings assistance it can get - it's likely the audience is in unanimous agreement that the definition of "transitory" has been tortured to death. Indeed, the Federal Reserve agrees! And Transitory has been retired. Or cremated. Still, instinct informs your podcaster that much like our zombie economy, the excuse is undead and Transitory will walk again!----------WHY----------PART 01: A great improvement in the US unemployment rate (JUL: 10.2%, AUG: 8.4%) suggests the Reopening Boom hints at economic recovery. UNFORTUNATELY, we have heard this story before -- indeed, for over a decade. Other employment data imply the unemployment rate is unreal. AGAIN.PART 02: Capital market seasonality is popularly assumed to be a phenomenon of the past; a quirk of an agricultural, bygone era. Not true! They still exist. And the calendar's biggest capital market bottleneck is dead ahead: September.PART 03: Why didn't the economy recover by 2011-12? Transitory issues in Europe. Why didn't the economy boom? Transitory weather. Why didn't good inflation materialize? Transitory price wars. Sadly what's not transitory is the seriousness with which central banks are taken.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Unfortunately Like Old Times: Back To Being The Star of the Payroll Show: https://bit.ly/3hglpAIEven More Suggesting Something Did Happen In July: https://bit.ly/2Fu7uJUCOT Black: Closing In On Mid-September, What About Oil?: https://bit.ly/3mhs9BRBottleneck In Japanese: https://bit.ly/3hof06BNew York Clearing House Banks Monthly Movements of Cash to and from Interior (1905-1908): https://bit.ly/3hsLYCK A Deflationary Mindset That Isn't In Our Minds: https://bit.ly/2FyXJdO----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, who has no idea if it is safe. Artwork by "Marathon Man" David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Moonline" by Cushy at Epidemic Sound.

Last week, current and former Federal Reserve officials offered a mea culpa, saying the timing of the 2015-18 rate hikes may have curbed a potentially quicker recovery from 2008. Apparently, seven to ten years is not enough time.Well then, if time is the problem your podcaster will take a page out of Hugh Hendry's book. Recently the early-21st century Scottish philosopher suggested the Fed would be taken seriously at its attempt of irresponsibility if it was headed by the funny, mixed martial artist, media-sensation Joe Rogan. Why not then filmmaker Christopher Nolan? He offers Rogan-style pyrotechnics, plus he knows his way around time. In Memento he reversed it, telling the story from back to front. With Inception he slowed it down - allowing multiple realities to exist simultaneously. Interstellar showed him capable of harnessing no less than the gravity well of the black hole Gargantua to 'steal' decades of time. And in his latest opus - TENƎT - Nolan folds all of these ideas into the same movie. Not just the same movie, but the same frames! Entire sequences are shown with characters and objects sharing the same space but not the same eddies of entropy.Hopefully the point survives the exaggeration. A true, fundamental overhaul is long overdue and recently the Federal Reserve did perform just such a review at the end of which it announced a new, grand strategy.  In this, the 25th episode of Making Sense, while we wait for Rogan, Nolan or Deus-forbid anyone with authority, Snider offers his review of the new, grand strategy.----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Murphy's Law Is Fed's Law, and Everything Is Wrong: https://bit.ly/3lTWbLMPeak Inflation? No, Peak Stupidity: https://bit.ly/357HFKrRead Richard Clarida's Speech: https://bit.ly/3lPo2wOWatch Richard Clarida's Speech: https://bit.ly/2QXB793Fat Chance, Flat Phillips: https://bit.ly/3hV2RXP----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, exempt from Murphy's Law. Artwork by David "the right stuff" Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is "Sleeves" by Cushy at Epidemic Sound.

"I am Oz, the Great and Terrible. Why do you seek me?"  They looked again in every part of the room, and then, seeing no one, Dorothy asked, "Where are you?""I am everywhere but to the eyes of common mortals I am invisible. I will now seat myself upon my throne, that you may converse with me.""We have come to claim our promise, O Oz.""What promise?" asked Oz."You promised to send me back to Kansas when the Wicked Witch was destroyed."And you promised to give me brains," said the Scarecrow."And you promised to give me a heart," said the Tin Woodman."And y'all promised to give me courage," said the Southern Lion."Dear me, how sudden! Well, come to me tomorrow, for I must have time to think it over.""You've had plenty of time already!""We shan't wait a day longer!""You must keep your promises to us!"The Lion thought it might be as well to frighten the Wizard, so he gave a large, loud roar, which was so fierce and dreadful that Toto jumped away from him in alarm and tipped over the screen that stood in a corner. As it fell with a crash they looked that way, and the next moment all of them were filled with wonder. For they saw, standing in just the spot the screen had hidden, a little old man, with a bald head and a wrinkled face, who seemed to be as much surprised as they were. Our friends looked at him in surprise and dismay."I thought Oz was a great Head," said Dorothy."And I thought Oz was a lovely Lady," said the Scarecrow."And I thought Oz was a courageous Bernanke," said the Tin Woodman."And I thought Oz was the Greenspan Put," exclaimed the Lion."No, you are all wrong," said the little man meekly. "I have been making believe.""Making believe!" cried Dorothy. "Are you not a Great Wizard?""Hush, my dear, don't speak so loud, or you will be overheard--and I should be ruined. I'm supposed to be a Great Wizard.""And aren't you?""Not a bit of it, my dear; I'm just a common man. My dear friends, I pray you not to speak of these little things. Think of me, and the terrible trouble I'm in at being found out. No one knows it but you four--and myself. I have fooled everyone so long that I thought I should never be found out.""But, I don't understand," said Dorothy, in bewilderment. "How was it that you appeared to me as a great Head?""That was one of my tricks. Step this way, please, and I will tell you all about it."----------WHY----------PART ONE: The Federal Reserve announced a grand, new strategy intended to convince YOU they are credibly irresponsible - real monetary maniacs. 'We will do it, man! We swear to Monetary Deus we'll let inflation run pure! We're not joking! Real hot. We can do it you know... Boogah boogah boogah!'PART TWO: The Federal Reserve announced a grand, new strategy form which the idea of 'full employment' is stricken. It is an implicit admission that the much celebrated, often trumpeted and frenzied waving of the "Best Unemployment Rate Ever!" flag was a mistake. It wasn't real. It wasn't true.PART THREE: America's government is spending wildly - and promises more. It does so via US Treasury bond sales. But who is buying? Are foreigners boycotting auctions? Are US banks already full? Is the Federal Reserve the last line of defense?----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------This Has To Be A Joke, Because If It’s Not…: https://bit.ly/3jB3jLtThe World's On Fire Because the Growth Never Was: https://bit.ly/34GxOv9Not This Again: Too Many Treasuries?: https://bit.ly/3b4XZwFAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, not holding up the Treasury market single-handedly. Artwork by David Parkins, Eurodollar University's W. W. Denslow. Podcast intro/outro is "So Many Secrets" by Gavin Luke at Epidemic Sound.

Magrathea.  It is one of legendary, advanced-economy planets of the human imagination sitting along side Asimov's Trantor of the Foundation Series, and Cybertron, home of the Autobots and Decepticons.  Sure, there are other fabled worlds like Cameron's Pandora, Besson's Fhloston Paradise Herbert's Arrakis, but these are - let's be honest - emerging economies.  What made Magrathea a galactic leader in economic complexity is that it WAS a planet-building planet.  As we learn in Douglas Adams' Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Magrathea has been missing for five million years.  By the time we join the story it is considered long dead.  The only being who believed it still existed was the two-headed Galactic President / confidence man.  And, after some LIGHT-piracy, MILD-conscription and heavy-improbability, our party of protagonists discover the planet all but deserted.Actually, not deserted.  Asleep.  You see Magrathea's product was a "luxury commodity" - none of this off-brand, pseudo-planet stuff like Pluto.  Well, "five million years ago the Galactic economy collapsed... the recession came and [they] decided it would save a lot of bother if [they] just slept through it.  So [they] programmed the computers to revive [them] when it was all over... The computers were index-linked to the Galactic stock-market prices... so that [they'd] be revived when everybody else had rebuilt the economy enough to afford [their] rather expensive services."Now dear listener, you anticipate this set up is likely in reference to our own 5-million year recession - now in its 13th year.  Or perhaps a nod to our own computer modeling gone berserk.  No ladies, gentlemen and galactic visitors, this 23rd episode of Making Sense is about the premature obituary.  Magrathea wasn't dead, merely dozing.  Our own Earthly list of rash declarations are just as entertaining.  British musician Dave Swarbrick, after visiting a local township, was declared dead by the Daily Telegraph to which he quipped: "It's not the first time I have died in Coventry."  American author Mark Twain had to explain on TWO occasions: "The report of my death was an exaggeration."  And who can forget King Arthur's quest for the Holy Grail in plague infested England when the Cart Master asked the village to, "Bring out your dead!" only to be presented a very alive, singing, dancing grandpa that had merely worn out his welcome at home?  Well, we can add the US Dollar to that list.  As Jeff Snider says, "the dollar’s not going anywhere. Except, of course, further up."----------WHERE----------AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cICastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaTuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOPodbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkrStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBOvercast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLaSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----------WHAT----------Part 1 of June TIC: The Dollar What: https://bit.ly/31kjXbUThe Case of the Missing Money by Stephen M. Goldfeld: https://brook.gs/3gcX2DuTreasury International Capital: https://bit.ly/34lykypPart 2 of June TIC: The Dollar Why: https://bit.ly/3iZTDJWIt’s Not As Obvious, But Stocks Are Tipped More Toward ‘Deflation’, Too: https://bit.ly/2QeZCOF----------WHO----------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, aspiring Zaphod Beeblebrox. Artwork by David Parkins, a Flying Circus surrealist. Podcast intro/outro is "By the Harbor" by Mhern at Epidemic Sound.