ARC ENERGY IDEAS

This week we welcome to the podcast Jared Dziuba, Oil & Gas Market Specialist, BMO Nesbitt Burns and Rachel Walsh, Carbon Innovation Analyst, BMO Nesbitt Burns.Jared and Rachel have authored several reports on the topic of CCS, including, “The Outer Limits: Exploring the Cost (Opportunity) of Canada’s Net Zero Pathways” and following the recent news of the federal tax credit for CCUS in Canada, they published “Durable Carbon Offset Revenue Still Needed to Drive CCUS.” Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked them: Considering the new federal tax credit, what carbon price is needed to support new investments? How likely is it that the carbon credit market in Alberta will trade at this level?  Could the actual costs for building large scale CCS projects be greater than expected? How is Alberta allocating the subsurface pore space for storing carbon? If you would like to have access to BMO Nesbitt Burns research on CCS, please contact Jared directly at Jared.Dziuba@bmo.comPlease review BMO Capital Markets disclosure at:  https://researchglobal0.bmocapitalmarkets.com/public-disclosure/ Please review ARC Energy Institute disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week our guest is the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Minister of Natural Resources.The Canadian federal government has recently released some important energy and climate policy, including the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and the Canadian Federal Budget 2022.Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Minister Wilkinson: How achievable is Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction goal of a 40 to 45 percent reduction by 2030? What has been the response to the plan from corporate Canada? What is the reaction to the CCS tax credit and what are the remaining barriers for projects moving ahead?  With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting energy price shock, is Canada prepared to increase hydrocarbon supplies? It takes a long time to build large energy projects in Canada, how can we move faster? What is the future of critical minerals and hydrogen in Canada? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week Peter and Jackie talk about the recent developments in the oil markets, including the demand concerns from China’s recent COVID lockdowns, the large Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release and OPEC plus decision to stick with a small increase in supply next month.They also consider the longer-term with Jackie’s recent commentary “History has a Lot to Say About Today’s Energy Shock.” By revisiting the oil shocks of the 1970s, you can find some learnings that are applicable to now.Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

Last week Peter attended GLOBE Forum 2022 in Vancouver, British Columbia.  GLOBE Forum is Canada’s sustainability conference. At GLOBE, Peter and Tonja Leach, the executive director of Quest interviewed Tim Gould, the Chief Energy Economist at the IEA and we include a recording of their conversation on this podcast.Before that, Peter and Jackie discuss Canada’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan that was introduced during GLOBE by Canada’s Environment and Climate Minister and the Prime Minister.  The plan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Canada by 40-45% by 2030 (compared to a 2005 baseline).Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week our guest is Candyce Kelshall who has worked extensively with militaries and advising police forces around the world. Kelshall is currently the President of the Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies (CASIS) –Vancouver, Adjunct Professor, Buckingham University Centre for Security and Intelligence Studies and Vice Chair at the Canadian Intelligence Network. Kelshall is also the Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Intelligence, Conflict and Warfare and also a board member at the Canadian International Council – Vancouver.Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Candyce Kelshall: Will the financial sanctions on Russia be effective in influencing Putin’s actions? What if the severity of the sanctions is increased? What are the risks if NATO becomes directly involved in the Ukraine conflict? Could the conflict go beyond Ukraine’s border? Why is Russia’s army not taking over Ukraine as quickly as expected?  What are some potential scenarios going forward? What are the risks of a Russia-China-West multi-polar world?On the podcast, Candyce Kelshall introduces the work of the American political scientist Francis Fukuyama who is known for his book “The End of History and the Last Man” (1992) that was based on an essay “The End of History” (1989). Kelshall also introduces the Russian political strategist Alexander Dugin who authored “Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical future of Russia” (1997) that predicted a number of Russian geopolitical strategies that did occur.See link to a recent op-ed Francis Fukuyama in the Financial Post “Francis Fukuyama: Putin’s War on the Liberal Order.”Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

On this week’s podcast, we interview Ian Anderson, the President and CEO of Trans Mountain Corporation on how the pipeline expansion project is progressing. The Trans Mountain Expansion Project is expected to transport oil to Canada’s west coast by late 2023. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Ian Anderson: Are the legal challenges for the project done? What is the status of construction? How much of the workforce is Indigenous? Did the BC floods last fall set the project back? In the most recent update, why did project costs almost double? Who pays for the increased costs? Do you expect other large oil pipelines to be built in North America?  Does Russia’s war in the Ukraine change anything?Peter and Jackie also extend their congratulations to Ian on his retirement starting in April 2022 and thank Ian for his incredible dedication and leadership on this critically important project for Canada.To learn more about the Trans Mountain Expansion project visit: https://www.transmountain.com/project-overviewPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week Peter and Jackie talk about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  What is the current situation with energy trade flows and markets due to the conflict? How much oil and gas supply could be cut off and what are the alternatives? Could Canadian energy supply help?  Will high oil prices and geopolitical concerns accelerate the energy transition?Also discussed: Peter’s recent commentary titled “Cold War, Inflation and Spiking Oil Prices: Q&A Through Déjà vu.” The IPCC’s new report “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.” A study that concludes that low carbon gas supply in British Columbia could be much larger than previously understood “BC Renewable and Low-Carbon Gas Supply Potential.”Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

On this episode we welcome Murray Mullen, President and CEO of Mullen Group to the podcast. The Mullen group is one of Canada’s largest logistics providers.Here are some of the questions we asked Murray:  What is the situation today with COVID related supply chain bottlenecks? Is there a shortage of truck drivers? How has online shopping impacted supply chain issues? What is your outlook for oil and gas oilfield service activity in Canada? What is realistic for decarbonizing the trucking feet? To learn more about Mullen Group visit: https://www.mullen-group.com/Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

This week Tyler Bryant, Strategic Advisor, Climate and Energy at FortisBC joins the podcast.  FortisBC delivers renewable energy, natural gas and electricity to customers in British Columbia. Here are some of the questions we asked Tyler:  What are the challenges of electrifying heating in Canada? What is renewable natural gas? How much renewable natural gas is possible? What is the potential carbon intensity reduction of gaseous fuels by blending hydrogen and renewable natural gas? Do you agree with cities in the US and Canada banning new natural gas connections?They also discuss a recent commentary by Jackie titled “Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Reconsider the Future of Natural Gas.”To learn more about FortisBC's renewable natural gas offering: https://www.fortisbc.com/services/sustainable-energy-options/renewable-natural-gasPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/

With WTI oil prices over $90/B, Peter and Jackie update podcast listeners on the most recent oil market fundamentals. As a result of these higher prices, ARC has increased its estimates for Canadian industry revenue and cash flows.Finally, they discuss Jackie’s recent commentary “Turn out  the lights and other lessons on electricity consumption.”  This article was originally published  for Let’s Talk Science and the Royal Society of Canada who have partnered to provide coverage on STEM programs and learning. To read other articles visit the “Let’s Talk Science” page at the Globe and Mail.To see the most current Western Canadian oil and gas drilling activity , view the ARC Energy Charts: Chart 35 is the Canadian gas drilling activity and Chart 37 is the oil drilling activity.  The last page of the Energy Charts shows ARC’s estimates for Canadian industry metrics.Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/