ARC ENERGY IDEAS

This week Peter and Jackie catch up on the latest news and topics of interest including: Russia to cut oil production by 500,000 B/d in March BP scales back their target to reduce their oil production by 2030  The collapse in North American and International natural gas prices Waiting for the Canadian Federal Government’s spring budget to learn about clean energy incentives policy The concern with articles that overpromise when it comes to clean energy technologies, including commentary on the article “Scientists Successfully Split Seawater to Produce Green Hydrogen” (OilPrice.com) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):Catching Up: Russia, Oil, Natural Gas, Policy and Clean Tech Promises (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week on the podcast our guest is John Graham, President and CEO of Canada Pension Plan (CPP) Investments. The mandate of CPP Investments is to invest the assets of the CPP Fund with a view to achieving a maximum rate of return without undue risk of loss. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked John Graham: What is the history of why Canada created the CPP and CPP Investments? What are your thoughts on 2023 with respect to geopolitics, threat of recession, inflation and volatility in general? Are you dampening your return expectations as a result of the weaker macro outlook? Is the CPP well funded to support Canadians who retire long into the future? Does the CPP have a net-zero 2050 goal?  Will you still invest in high carbon industries, for example steel, concrete or oil and gas? Do you have goals for investing in clean and green energy? What are the barriers for investing capital in clean energy? Could the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) attract energy transition focused capital away from Canada? There is an active debate in Alberta now about leaving the CPP, beyond contribution levels, what other factors should Albertan’s consider in this major decision? Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/   To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): An Interview with Canada Pension Plan Investment’s President and CEO, John Graham (arcenergyinstitute.com)

In September 2022, Enbridge and 23 First Nations and Metis communities announced that the Indigenous groups would buy an 11.57% non-operating interest in Enbridge operated pipelines in the Athabasca region of northern Alberta for $1.12 Billion – it has been called the first of its kind and an historic announcement. This week, Justin Bourque, President of Athabasca Indigenous Investments and Colin Gruending, Enbridge’s Executive Vice President and President of Liquids Pipelines join the podcast to tell us more about the agreement.   Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Justin and Colin:  How will the agreement help the 23 communities who are now equity partners in the pipeline system?  How did Athabasca Indigenous Investments finance their share of the pipeline for over $1 billion? What was the process like – who made the first phone call and how long did it take to come to an agreement? Do you foresee more equity partnerships occurring in the future? What is your advice for how companies should participate in Indigenous reconciliation? Content referenced in this podcast: Book Recommendation: 21 Things You May Not Know About the Indian Act by Bob Joseph  Enbridge’s Indigenous Reconciliation Action Plan including the artwork of Jason Carter  Athabasca Indigenous Investments   Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):  Making History: Enbridge Partners with Indigenous Communities on Pipelines (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week on the podcast our guest is Blake Shaffer, Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics and School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary.   We cover a range of topics about Alberta and Canada’s electricity markets.  Including revisiting the tight power market that Alberta experienced during the  December 2022 cold spell, the issues and opportunities that come from the ramp-up of Electric Vehicles (EV), and finally the prospects for achieving net-zero electricity by 2035 in Canada.  Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Blake: Does Alberta’s Electricity Systems Operator (AESO) need a better system for asking residential consumers to reduce their demand in times that the power system is in short supply?  How are electrical system distributors preparing for the coming influx of EVs?  Will people adjust their charging behavior to help the electrical system accommodate more EVs? Do you think Canada can achieve net-zero electricity by 2035? Will large transmission lines between provinces be required to achieve net-zero?  How could net-zero impact consumer’s utility bills in 2035?  Content referenced in this podcast: Follow Blake on Twitter @bcshaffer https://twitter.com/bcshaffer Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): Can the Grid Handle EVs? (arcenergyinstitute.com)

Carbon credits are coming under increasing scrutiny. The Guardian ran an article last week that alleged that 90% of rainforest carbon credits issued by Verra, manager of the world’s leading voluntary carbon markets program, the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) Program, did not represent genuine offsets.  And, comedian John Oliver made the entertaining case that carbon offsets do not deliver the emissions benefit that they claim.  This week, our guest Dirk Forrister, President and CEO of the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) helps us understand the current state of the carbon markets. Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Dirk: What is your response to the critics of carbon markets – including John Oliver and The Guardian? To improve credibility, some groups are advocating that avoidance credits should be banished, and only removal credits should be supported – do you agree with that perspective? When do you expect that countries can trade credits across borders? Does the Article 6 agreement ,made during COP 26, facilitate international trade? Do you think Canada could use Article 6 to offset the emissions for operating LNG export terminals?  Are you concerned by the price volatility in carbon credit markets? Content referenced in this podcast: Our weekly publication, the ARC Energy Charts has our 2023 outlook for the Canadian oil and gas industry revenue, cash flow, and capital spending – see the last page The Guardian, January 18, 2023 “Revealed: More than 90% of rainforest carbon offset credits by biggest provider are worthless, analysis shows” John Oliver show on carbon offsets  International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) website: https://www.ieta.org/ Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):  Are Carbon Offsets Credible? (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week, Yvan Cliche, Fellow at CERIUM (Center for International Studies and Research) at Université de Montreal talks about the opportunities and issues for Canadian energy, including his perspective from Quebec. Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Yvan: Will renewables lessen the dependence on oil and gas any time soon? Is Canada doing enough to help our allies during the Russia-Ukraine war?  Does a cap on oil and gas emissions make any sense during a period of war and energy shortages?  What do Quebecers think about oil pipelines in their province?  What about LNG exports from Quebec? Is Quebec considered energy secure now? How could that change in the future? What are some of the interesting possibilities for Quebec energy in the future? Content referenced in this podcast:  Yvan Cliché’s recent book titled: “Jusqu'à plus soif: Pétrole-gaz-solaire-éolien : enjeux et conflits énergétiques” - English translation: “Until no longer thirsty: Oil-gas-solar-wind power: energy issues and conflicts”. Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):  A Conversation on Energy and Quebec (arcenergyinstitute.com)

Peter and Jackie start the year off by introducing nine topics that are likely to dominate energy and climate discussions in 2023. China – Zero-COVID policy relaxation consequences Ukraine war outlook Inflation outlook Commodity price outlook – Which way? Up, down or both? Year of the EV pickup truck Canada’s response to the US IRA and other climate policy Green-on-green competition begins First FID on major CCS projects in Alberta LNG in Canada outlook Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page):  Nine Themes to Watch in 2023 (arcenergyinstitute.com)

On this week’s podcast we look back on the key themes that shaped the past year.  First, we review our predictions from early January. How well did we predict the issues that would dominate the discussion in 2022?  We also review some of the big stories of the year that we did not foresee twelve months ago.  Content referenced in this podcast:  Jackie’s commentary: Learnings from building Canada’s Railway for Today’s Megaprojects  The Wall Street Journal article on how Germany accelerated the construction of an LNG import terminal: The Five-Year Engineering Feat Germany Pulled Off in Months Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): Looking Back on 2022: What Were the Big Surprises? (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week Alexis von Hoensbroech, Chief Executive Officer at WestJet joins as our guest. The last few years have been very difficult for airlines. COVID restrictions caused the industry to shrink overnight, then in the summer of 2022 people started traveling again but the airports and airlines were collectively challenged by the surge in demand.  On top of all that pressure and change, airlines are being asked to reduce their GHG emissions.  Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Alexis: How did WestJet manage during the pandemic and the pent-up demand in 2022? How is WestJet dealing with greater competition in the Canadian market? What are the advantages of the new planes that WestJet is purchasing?  What commitments have you made to reduce GHG emissions? What technologies will be needed to achieve these reductions? Carbon offsets are an option today, how many customers voluntarily purchase offsets for their flights?  Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): The Ups and Downs of Aviation: An Interview with WestJet’s CEO (arcenergyinstitute.com)

This week Daniel Breton, President and CEO of Electric Mobility Canada (EMC) joins as our guest.  Prior to joining EMC, Daniel was an environmental activist and politician in Quebec. Here are some of the questions that Peter and Jackie asked Daniel: What percent of new cars in Canada are EVs now? Are you concerned about cost inflation and the lack of cars?  Which Canadian provinces are EV leaders and laggards?  The Liberal government wants EVs to make-up 60% of new car sales by 2030 and 100% by 2035 – are mandates a good idea? Is the Canadian government spending enough to build out EV charging infrastructure?   California had a power shortage in early September and some people said this is a sign they cannot add more EVs, is that a fair criticism? Content referenced in this podcast: EMC Canadian Provincial and Territorial Zero-Emission Vehicle Scorecard Link to Daniel Breton’s past books   Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/  To see a transcript of this podcast, visit the link (scroll part way down the page): EVs in Canada: Are Mandates a Good Idea? (arcenergyinstitute.com)