Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova
Pushkin Industries
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
Episodes
Mentioned books
18 snips
Jan 7, 2026 • 37min
Nate and Maria’s 2026 Predictions
Nate and Maria take a reflective look at their 2025 predictions before diving into bold forecasts for 2026. They discuss the uncertain future shaped by societal shifts and AI, while debating college sports' vulnerability to gambling scandals. With politics, they analyze odds for the House and Senate, and touch on the Epstein files. AI misinformation sparks concern as they weigh potential leaders in the field. Plus, predictions about NYC's bus system and their own poker futures add an entertaining twist.
Jan 3, 2026 • 43min
Best of Risky Business: Life After Poker (with Vanessa Selbst)
Vanessa Selbst, a former top-ranked poker player and now a quantitative trader at Jane Street, shares her fascinating journey from the poker table to finance. She reveals how televised bluffs shaped her reputation and strategic approaches in the game. The conversation dives into the psychology of decision-making and how her poker skills translate to trading. Vanessa also recounts a humorous story about keeping a stash of pennies at her first finance job, highlighting the quirky moments of her transition. Reflecting on her legacy, she discusses women in poker and her future pursuits.
Dec 31, 2025 • 39min
Why Are Some Countries Happier Than Others?
Discover why Finland tops the World Happiness Report and what that means for measuring joy across nations. Dive into on-the-ground impressions from Nordic countries showcasing cultural influences on well-being. Explore the intriguing six drivers of happiness and the diminishing returns of income. Uncover how trust, public investment, and community shape societal happiness. Plus, learn about the impact of genetics and social connections on life satisfaction. Fascinating insights await!
Dec 24, 2025 • 43min
Best Of Risky Business: Lessons From The River
Dive into a discussion about the fascinating world of calculated risk-takers known as 'The River.' Explore the intriguing crossover between poker, VCs, and crypto, emphasizing how diverse choices impact representation. Learn key lessons on expected value and the significance of long-term thinking. Nate contrasts extreme risk attitudes of figures like Elon Musk and Sam Bankman-Fried while cautioning against overconfidence in modeling uncertainty. Ultimately, discover the life skills poker offers amidst the societal harms of gambling.
Dec 20, 2025 • 39min
Best of Risky Business: Building a Championship Team (with Daryl Morey)
Daryl Morey, President of Basketball Operations for the Philadelphia 76ers, makes waves with his innovative approach to the NBA. He explores game theory's role in decision-making, including strategies like the two-for-one clock maneuver. Morey passionately defends the value of superstars, emphasizing their outsized impact on championships. He discusses balancing risky superstar acquisitions with salary constraints and the importance of analytics in the league. Plus, insights on emotional investment in games and the potential pitfalls of relying solely on statistics.
10 snips
Dec 17, 2025 • 42min
The Riskies! 2025 Edition
This year's awards spotlight epic decision-making blunders and triumphs. Tune in for debates on surprising political gambles, including the unexpected hero calls of 2025. The duo dissects baffling trades in sports, contrasting them with political folds. Emotional decision-makers are highlighted, and the cognitive biases of the year are scrutinized. Learn about the most daring bets and oddities in poker. Plus, who won the coveted titles for best poker play and biggest bluffs? It's a wild ride through the world of risky choices!
5 snips
Dec 13, 2025 • 40min
What’s In Store With Self-Driving Cars
Experience a glimpse into the future with discussions about self-driving cars! From smooth rides in Waymo to navigating mixed traffic with human drivers, the hosts share personal anecdotes and insights. They tackle ethical dilemmas, the quirks of GPS navigation, and the unpredictable nature of human drivers. Listen in as they explore how AVs learn from the chaotic real world and the potential risks of hacks and privacy concerns. It's a fascinating dive into the technology shaping transportation while weighing comfort against safety!
Dec 10, 2025 • 40min
What Movies Get Right and Wrong About Poker
Maria reveals her exciting new project about Vegas casinos, featuring collaboration with renowned figures like Scorsese. The duo gets into why many poker movies miss the mark, highlighting common mistakes like poor etiquette and unrealistic stakes. They reflect on the psychological depth showcased in 'California Split' and how movies often oversimplify the randomness of the game. 'Molly's Game' is praised for its realism. Plus, they dream up their ideal poker movie and speculate on who would play them. Movie night, anyone?
11 snips
Dec 3, 2025 • 40min
Frisky Business: Olivia Nuzzi, Ryan Lizza, and Journalistic Ethics
The hosts dive into the pros and cons of holiday travel, weighing the merits of flying, driving, and train journeys. They explore Olivia Nuzzi's memoir and her complicated relationship with Ryan Lizza while dissecting the ethics of journalism. With a focus on the delicate balance between access and integrity, they discuss allegations of misconduct and the implications for source trust. The conversation touches on the impact of sexualization on women journalists and how these dynamics play out in today’s media landscape.
16 snips
Nov 29, 2025 • 37min
The Prisoners’ Dilemma of Performance-Enhancing Drugs
The discussion dives into the rising prevalence of performance-enhancing drugs beyond sports. Nate and Maria explore the nuances between low-risk microdosing and high-stakes doping, particularly in poker. They analyze the impact of stimulants on focus versus creativity and the complexities of fairness in enhancement. The hosts discuss the prisoner's dilemma in doping, highlighting how rules and enforcement shape the debate. Ultimately, they emphasize the importance of context and health considerations in the conversation around enhancers.
