Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova Best Of Risky Business: Lessons From The River
Dec 24, 2025
Dive into a discussion about the fascinating world of calculated risk-takers known as 'The River.' Explore the intriguing crossover between poker, VCs, and crypto, emphasizing how diverse choices impact representation. Learn key lessons on expected value and the significance of long-term thinking. Nate contrasts extreme risk attitudes of figures like Elon Musk and Sam Bankman-Fried while cautioning against overconfidence in modeling uncertainty. Ultimately, discover the life skills poker offers amidst the societal harms of gambling.
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The River As A Distinct Risk-Taking Community
- The River is a community of calculated risk-takers spanning poker, VC, hedge funds, sports betting, and crypto.
- They share a common vocabulary and cross-pollinate careers, creating a distinct, influential network.
Expected Value And Long Horizons Win
- Two core River axioms: maximize expected value and use long time horizons.
- These principles explain why risky long-term bets like SpaceX can succeed despite early losses.
Guard Your Bankroll To Stay In The Game
- Protect your bankroll to avoid ruin and preserve future opportunities.
- Use concepts like the Kelly criterion to size bets, but adapt for personal circumstances.