Yet Another Value Podcast

The discussion kicks off with reflections on the speculative frenzy surrounding crypto-linked stocks, drawing parallels to historical market bubbles. There's a deep dive into the potential risks of a new SPAC bubble and strategic hedging. The host tackles the nuances of pattern recognition in investing, illustrating how past experiences can both aid and hinder decision-making. The conversation wraps up with thought-provoking insights on leadership arrogance and the necessity for dialogue, inviting listener engagement throughout.

In this insightful update, Andrew Walker dives into three intriguing stock ideas for 2025: Sage Therapeutics, Keros Therapeutics, and Full House Resorts. He reveals the dynamics behind Sage's recent acquisition and speculates on potential bids from Biogen. Keros faces slow capital return, while Full House's promising insider buying is contrasted by its current lag in performance. Andrew emphasizes the importance of active shareholder engagement and insider moves in shaping company strategies, all while keeping the analysis engaging and informative.

Byrne Hobart, a finance and technology writer behind The Diff and Capital Gains newsletters, joins the discussion to unpack Ray Dalio’s latest theories on economic cycles and sovereign debt. They explore how technological advancements, like AI, are reshaping productivity and employment. The duo critically examines the credibility of Dalio’s claims, the role of central banks, and the complexities of macro trading versus policy-making. They also ponder the future viability of cryptocurrencies and the concept of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund amidst economic uncertainty.

Guowei Zhang, a writer for 'Yummy Century Stocks' specializing in distressed investments, joins the conversation about EchoStar's complicated financial landscape. They delve into the company's struggling satellite and pay TV segments, revealing the hidden value in its wireless spectrum assets. The discussion highlights FCC regulatory challenges, the potential for bankruptcy, and speculative links to a possible Trump Mobile tie-in. With stark valuation predictions and varying investor positions, Zhang uncovers the fascinating, tumultuous nature of EchoStar's market drama.

In this discussion, Bill Chen, a seasoned expert from Rhizome Partners, shares his insights on the multifaceted world of real estate investing post-NAREIT. He highlights key trends such as the resilience of public REITs against market stresses and the shifting dynamics in rental markets, especially in NYC and the Sunbelt. Bill navigates the complexities of grocery-anchored retail investments and the impact of AI on operations. His analysis sheds light on valuation divergences and investment opportunities in today's competitive landscape.

Brian Finn of Findell Capital, who holds a significant stake in Oportun Financial, discusses his proxy battle aimed at reforming the company's board. He critiques Oportun's shift toward a sprawling fintech model, arguing it caused operational inefficiencies and harm to shareholders. Finn highlights governance failures, including the recent ousting of a high-performing director. He believes Oportun's focus on underserved communities and strong economic potential makes it ripe for a turnaround with proper oversight and leadership.

Aaron Chan from Recurve Capital shares his insights as a value investor. He dives into the legacy business of Cogent Communications, tackling the strategic implications of its Sprint acquisition. The discussion reveals CEO Dave Schaeffer's vision and the intricate financial transformations underway. They analyze network resilience, competitive pricing strategies, and the impact of AI on market dynamics. Chan also touches on leadership implications and how operational control can drive efficiency and growth in the digital infrastructure domain.

Ben Kelleran from Kontrarian Korner dives into the intriguing world of Sable Offshore. He highlights the company's legal battles with California regulators, emphasizing the complexities and risks of oil drilling in the state. Discussions revolve around the potential upside if operations restart, the company's SPAC history, and refinancing strategies. Kelleran also sheds light on valuation dynamics, why Exxon divested, and the hesitancy of major oil funds to invest due to regulatory uncertainties. It’s a deep dive into navigating high-stakes investment waters!

Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, joins to reflect on Warren Buffett's biography, 'The Snowball.' They discuss Buffett's complex family dynamics and early financial missteps that almost led to disaster. The conversation touches on his strategic use of leverage and deep value investments, along with his unique approach to global markets. Hobart shares insights on the ethical challenges in finance and examines how Buffett’s personal choices contrast with his public persona, providing a nuanced view of America's most iconic investor.

Darren McLean from Muddy Waters, an expert in hard metals and mining, offers unique insights into a sector often overlooked by general investors. He discusses the power of unconventional data analysis in uncovering inefficiencies and potential goldmines in mining investments. McLean highlights the ramifications of the brain drain in the industry and why supermajors are hesitant to engage in early-stage projects. He emphasizes that with the right expertise, investing in mining can yield significant returns, steering clear of common pitfalls.