UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Jason Draho from UBS discusses pivotal events like the US election and AI's impact on markets. They explore global rate cuts' effects, AI's influence on equity returns, managing market volatility in the 2024 election, and UBS CIO's latest investment preferences, including a focus on Gold and tech exposure.

For this month we focus on the 2024 proxy season, including a review of expectations, a look at some notable trends and themes, along with comparisons to what 2023 delivered. Featured are Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable & Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Amy O’Brien, Global Head of Responsible Investing with Nuveen. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This week has a lot of politics in it, and markets are rarely that good at pricing political risk. The US presidential debate may make investors pay attention to political risk earlier than is normal in the US political cycle. Because so much attention has focused on the suitability of the candidates for office (rather than their policy positions), this debate might actually matter.

Guest Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, discusses SCOTUS rulings on US tax, key themes from G7 Summit, and the implications of the Russia-North Korea military pact. Topics include wealth tax legislation, AI, economic security, Russia's actions, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Discussion on central bank decisions in response to decreasing inflation trends, with a focus on rate cuts in Switzerland and the UK. Analysis of the potential impact on global economies and consumer spending in the UK and South Korean exports.

Explore market insights with Jason Draho, Leslie Falconio, and Nadia Lovell as they discuss 2024 market outlook, equity positioning, fixed income analysis, and alternative investments. Get ready for the second half of the year with recommendations and expectations from industry experts.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they provide views on markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space.

The Bank of England offers some excitement as investors await the start of the UK interest rate easing cycle. That start is probably not today, but should be soon. The BoE relishes dissent and discussion to help form higher quality decisions (the Federal Reserve might like to take note), making policy outcomes less predictable. With consumer price inflation down nine percentage points from the recent highs, the case for lowering real interest rates is strong—but the BoE might want a couple more data points before acting.

May UK inflation data was as expected across the multiple measures released today. Headline consumer price inflation was 2%. The decline in inflation has almost nothing to do with government policy, and not that much to do with the Bank of England—a lot of this is the natural slowing of temporary inflation drivers. Durable goods prices sank further into deflation.

Eurozone final May consumer price inflation is very unlikely to change from the initial report. At 2.6% y/y, the rate is above the ECB’s target, but rate cuts are still justified. Inflation has fallen eight percentage points from its high. The impact of that on real interest rates is significant.