Top of the Morning: 2024 Second-half market outlook
Jun 20, 2024
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Explore market insights with Jason Draho, Leslie Falconio, and Nadia Lovell as they discuss 2024 market outlook, equity positioning, fixed income analysis, and alternative investments. Get ready for the second half of the year with recommendations and expectations from industry experts.
The first half of 2024 saw higher than expected growth with inflation aligning, but Fed rate cut predictions shifted.
CIO anticipates moderated growth, reduced inflation, and global central banks pursuing rate cuts, supporting risk assets and fixed income diversification.
Deep dives
Market Reflections on First Half of 2024
The market conditions in the first half of 2024 saw growth trending higher than expected with a stronger economy noted by Jason. Inflation witnessed fluctuations but is currently aligning with expectations. Fed rate cut predictions shifted leading to lesser expected cuts. The overall market trajectory remains on course, with growth and inflation moderating.
Anticipated Market Macro Conditions for Remainder of 2024
Looking ahead, CIO anticipates a moderation in growth towards trend levels while expecting a decline in inflation. Fed rate cuts are projected to support a soft landing for the economy. Globally, a positive growth inflection is seen in regions like Europe and Japan, with central banks embarking on a path of rate cuts. Despite potentially muted upside due to current pricing, the market remains supportive for risk assets.
Positioning Recommendations for Fixed Income and Alternative Investments
For fixed income, expectations point towards declining Treasury yields from slowing growth, despite potential upsides from geopolitical risks. Agency MBS is highlighted as offering value with yields projected to decrease. In alternative investments, a diversified allocation is recommended, emphasizing the benefits of portfolio diversification and seizing opportunities in private markets like private equity, real estate, and hedge funds for long-term portfolio growth amidst market uncertainties.
With the halfway point of 2024 having arrived, we reflect on how market and macro conditions have evolved thus far, and share expectations for the balance of the year. Plus, we outline positioning recommendations across equities, fixed income, and alternatives. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Nadia Lovell, Senior US Equity Strategist. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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