UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Yesterday’s US consumer price inflation data was benign. Consumer durable goods prices fell for a majority of the Biden administration. Although consumers do not focus on such prices when considering inflation, this deflation did boost consumer spending power. The abrupt market response reflects the problem with Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s “data dependency” mantra: any data release (however dodgy) prompts an extreme market response.

Rick rejoins Jason to begin a new year as the two discuss and share their views on the US macroeconomic environment, monetary policy and rates, along with exchange thoughts on allocation preferences across fixed income and equities. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, Head of the Fundamental Fixed Income business, and Head of the Global Allocation Investment Team at BlackRock. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US December consumer price inflation should show modest headline gains. It is worth distinguishing inflation pressures and relative price changes. Egg prices are likely to rise sharply—egg producer prices rose 127.9% y/y in December. This is a supply shock. Unless Federal Reserve Chair Powell becomes a chicken farmer, they can do nothing about this.

Leslie rejoins the podcast to share CIO’s outlook for fixed income in 2025, including thoughts around the road ahead for monetary policy, what has been causing the rise in yields, and considerations when it comes to positioning within the asset class. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets have reacted to media reports suggesting that the next US administration will impose trade taxes on US consumers gradually, month by month. Remember past media reports on tariff policy have subsequently been denied over social media. This is a boiling frog approach—the price level effect is the same, but consumers may not notice so much. The risk is that repeated tariff increases would encourage repeated profit-led inflation episodes by providing a convenient cover story.

What does a combination of good economic data and higher rates mean for the markets? Following a strong December jobs report, and with yields continuing to climb higher, Jason reflects on recent market moves and reaffirms CIO’s longer-term market outlook. Plus, thoughts when it comes to portfolio positioning for the current environment. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s December trade data showed even more strength in exports than had been anticipated. This is being attributed to US companies stockpiling ahead of threatened taxes from US President-elect Trump. Such stockpiling may delay the consumer price inflation effects of the taxes (though the narrative of the tax increase is powerful, and may lead to consumer price increases regardless).

We close out the first trading week of 2025 by reflecting on the December employment report, along with the minutes from the December FOMC meeting. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Shiavon Chatman

US employment report Friday brings the regular reminder that average earnings are not wages (changing labor force structures change the average). The payrolls number is derived from a survey that has a 43% response rate, and that poor representation means significant revisions are much more likely. The market is looking for a fairly dull report overall—some moderation in job creation with a stable unemployment rate.

Ainsley Carbone, a Retirement Strategist at UBS, and Justin Waring, a Senior Total Wealth Strategist at UBS, tackle essential insights for retirement planning in 2025. They discuss key updates on Medicare premiums and Social Security adjustments, alongside new contribution limits for retirement accounts. Ainsley and Justin highlight the importance of liquidity management and tax-efficient withdrawals to prepare for escalating healthcare costs. They also navigate changes in estate tax policies, underscoring the need for strategic planning as retirement landscapes evolve.