UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas at UBS, shares his insights after the recent IMF-World Bank meetings. He discusses the evolving landscape of emerging markets and the implications of U.S. trade policies. Alejo addresses the challenges to the U.S. dollar’s status as the global reserve currency, alongside the potential for growth in Latin America, especially Argentina. He highlights the significance of understanding regime changes in these markets and the importance of keeping informed on these shifting dynamics.

Discover how recent GDP data is deemed unreliable, leading to chaotic economic interpretations. The discussion highlights the slowdown in factory investments and the ripple effects on U.S. trade dynamics. Insights on South Korea’s export challenges and upcoming economic indicators provide a comprehensive view. Additionally, the impact of President Trump's trade policies on manufacturing and consumer behavior across the political spectrum is analyzed, revealing the intertwining complexities of modern economics.

As the Trump administration marks 100 days in office, Burkhard reflects on how global markets have performed during this span. Plus, we dive into the US-China tariff conflict and discuss how this trading relationship may evolve from here, along with what investors should be mindful of when it comes to China’s economic model.

Online retailer Amazon denied reports it would publish the tariff impact on the price of each item sold on its US website. The general lack of tariff transparency risks higher US inflation by enabling retailers to indulge in profit-led inflation—blaming tariffs for price increases that actually raise profit margin. Lack of transparency also risks consumers blaming tariffs for every price increase, reducing confidence and threatening growth.

Discover how annuity income can boost your retirement strategy by providing reliable cash flow and reducing market risks. Experts discuss the benefits of annuities in alleviating longevity concerns and how they complement Social Security. Learn about the barriers retirees face when considering annuities and the importance of consulting financial advisors. With today’s rising bond yields enhancing attractiveness, these insights help navigate the steps to integrate annuities into your financial planning.

US President Trump is to mark their 100th day in office with a partial retreat on auto-part trade taxes, and a speech. The speech risks further erratic policy pronouncements—Trump declared very negative approval ratings to be “fake news”, but may want to blame external forces for their poll performance. That might lead to policy pronouncements on immigration, trade, or some other economically significant issue. Uncertainty about such policy shifts has economic consequences.

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas at UBS, as he dives into the recent surge in U.S. equities and whether investors are ahead of the curve amidst ongoing macro uncertainty. He explores the implications of U.S. exceptionalism for economic growth, emphasizing the role of productivity in maintaining it. The discussion also covers how recent trade developments and the Federal Reserve's actions are shaping market sentiments, alongside strategic insights for navigating current volatility, especially in tech and equities.

Recent US consumer sentiment is notably up, particularly among registered Republicans, but the underlying economic realities remain uncertain. Consumers are still relying on older inventory before trade taxes take effect. There's a striking disconnect between sentiment and actual economic conditions, fueled by partisan media biases. Businesses are responding quickly to this uncertainty, leading to a significant drop in US port activity as they hesitate to make moves amidst fluctuating consumer behaviors.

Hear views on the US equity markets from Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space. Recorded on 04.17.25