Pacific Polarity

Zhao Long of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies shares how China sees its role in a shifting global order. Dr Zhao argues that China can break the historical cycle of great powers seeking spheres of influence, instead advancing a development-driven model for Asia within a multipolar world. He highlights initiatives like the Global Governance Initiative and the SCO Development Bank as concrete steps toward collective security. Dr Zhao also notes that many regional states view US-China rivalry as both risk and opportunity, leveraging competition to attract investment and diversify partnerships. On Russia-US dynamics, he sees little chance of genuine rapprochement but no major downside for China, and he emphasizes that dialogue and mutual understanding remain essential for stability. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

Sheena Chestnut Greitens discusses how China is extending its internal security model abroad, and what that means for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific. She explains how Beijing’s campaign-style governance and surveillance technologies are being repurposed as tools of global security influence, raising risks of autocratization, but also potential blowback for China reminiscent of Cold War overreach. From the Solomon Islands to Taiwan, she outlines the implications for Australia, regional allies, and the U.S., where debates over securitization, alliance management, and even academic engagement with China reveal the difficult trade-offs of balancing security and openness in an increasingly contested order. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

Former Ambassador Andrew Goledzinowski discusses the shifting balance of power in Southeast Asia and what it means for Australia. From the risks of a potential U.S. retrenchment, to the stabilising role of competition between Washington and Beijing, he argues that Australia has few viable strategic alternatives to its alliance with the United States. Drawing on his experience across Southeast Asia and beyond, Goledzinowski highlights the opportunities in critical minerals, the challenges of sustaining immigration support at home, and why regional engagement requires both patience and long-term commitment. Above all, he stresses that international affairs resemble chaos theory, a “butterfly effect” where small shifts can ripple unpredictably. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

On this episode of Pacific Polarity, Natalie Sambhi, Executive Director of Verve Research, discussed how Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is caught between protest and power politics, navigating domestic unrest while striving for a place on the world stage. Dr Sambhi explains how Prabowo’s push to be seen at major international fora reflects Indonesia’s ambitions as a Global South power, even as China looms large in its hedging strategy and Western partners fret over Jakarta’s openness to multiple alignments. At home, Prabowo faces mounting demonstrations and a legacy of military influence that continues to shape Indonesian politics, though the army remains a deeply trusted institution. The conversation explores how these internal and external dynamics intersect, and what they reveal about Indonesia’s balancing act between stability at home and relevance abroad. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

Syaza Shukri, Associate Professor at the International Islamic University Malaysia, discusses how Malaysia is navigating deep-rooted ethnic politics at home and shifting geopolitical currents abroad under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. She highlights how Malaysia’s affirmative action policies and mono-ethnic party system continue to shape divisive domestic debates, while on the global stage, suspicions of both China and the West complicate foreign policy perceptions. Although Anwar has leaned into the language of “Asian civilisation,” Syaza argues his diplomacy is less about aligning with Beijing than about engaging all sides, even if that stance is less appreciated in Western capitals. Political Islam and Malaysia’s role as ASEAN summit host further underscore the country’s search for harmony between its domestic identity and international positioning. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

Jersey Lee spoke with Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about Australia’s strategic future. Roggeveen, author of The Echidna Strategy, argues for a continental defence posture rather than tying Australia to AUKUS and US forward defence priorities, warning that Washington’s interest in Asian dominance is inconsistent and driven more by prestige than necessity. He sees Australia as the largest Pacific power with the capacity to build a regional sphere of influence, while Southeast Asia risks falling into China’s orbit. He also warns that Trump’s second term would pose greater challenges than his first, reflects on lessons from Brexit for Australia, and stresses the need to rethink how to secure Australia’s independence and political traditions in an era of shifting power balances. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr., former IMF executive director and founding VP of the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB), discusses why both institutions fall short in serving the Global South.He explains how IMF reforms to boost developing countries’ representation stalled because meaningful change would increase China’s voting share — something the West resists — while the U.S. insists on keeping veto power. This, he argues, entrenches geopolitical bias, with the IMF acting as a “North Atlantic Monetary Fund.”Paulo also critiques the NDB: voting rules that entrench founding BRICS power, weak transparency, politicized leadership, and no resident board to engage members. He calls ex-president Marcos Troyjo “totally unqualified” and explains why Putin kept Dilma Rousseff in charge rather than nominating a Russian.They also discuss the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement’s Melbourne origins, why private cryptocurrencies won’t drive de-dollarization, how the U.S. “GENIUS Act” could backfire, and why Trump’s tariffs might strengthen BRICS cohesion. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

Will Glasgow, China correspondent for The Australian, talks about the complexities of reporting from China, the evolving state of China-Australia relations, and more This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

International Crisis Group's William Yang discusses about Taiwan’s increasingly precarious geopolitical position as it faces mounting pressure from China and shifting demands from the US. He unpacks the implications of US “reciprocal tariffs,” stalled trade negotiations, and the cancelled Latin America trip, as well as domestic political tensions heightened by a failed DPP-led recall effort. William discusses Taiwan’s constrained ability to hedge, the limits of “resist China” messaging, and the need for pragmatic policy shifts, such as rethinking energy and defence strategies. He also reflects on regional dynamics, the role of Japan and Australia, and the importance of coupling deterrence with reassurance in cross-strait relations. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com

Dr Nguyen Khac Giang discusses how Vietnam’s domestic politics and foreign policy are shaped by intensifying US-China rivalry. He discusses Vietnam’s adaptation of China’s development model, the political impact of its anti-corruption drive, and the country’s deep reliance on trade as both strength and vulnerability. Dr Nguyen explains how Vietnam balances ties with China (a regime and economic partner) and the US (a security partner), and outlines Hanoi’s long-term shift toward a “Banyan diplomacy” strategy, deepening domestic roots and diversifying international partnerships to reduce geopolitical risk. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com