Andrew Goledzinowski: The Chaos Theory in Asia’s Balance of Power

Former Ambassador Andrew Goledzinowski discusses the shifting balance of power in Southeast Asia and what it means for Australia. From the risks of a potential U.S. retrenchment, to the stabilising role of competition between Washington and Beijing, he argues that Australia has few viable strategic alternatives to its alliance with the United States. Drawing on his experience across Southeast Asia and beyond, Goledzinowski highlights the opportunities in critical minerals, the challenges of sustaining immigration support at home, and why regional engagement requires both patience and long-term commitment. Above all, he stresses that international affairs resemble chaos theory, a “butterfly effect” where small shifts can ripple unpredictably.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pacificpolarity.substack.com